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Author Topic: Hurricanes Hannah and Ike  (Read 13930 times)
BillB
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Posts: 1,987

« on: September 05, 2008, 01:23:17 AM »

It looks like Hannah will hit the coast of north and south Carolina as a tropical storm.
But Ike is projected to him the Miami Area Tuesday night/Wednesday morning as a cat 4 hurricane.
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Gil Robb Wilson # 19
Gil Robb Wilson # 104
JoeTomasone
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« Reply #1 on: September 05, 2008, 03:18:03 AM »

It looks like Hannah will hit the coast of north and south Carolina as a tropical storm.
But Ike is projected to him the Miami Area Tuesday night/Wednesday morning as a cat 4 hurricane.

To be more accurate:

Miami is the center of a possible range of landfalls predicted by the models for Ike that range from south of Cuba to the SC/NC border.


The 5 day forecast is subject to extremely large errors and is subject to substantial change.   Remember, at one point, this was the forecast for Hanna:




It is also instructive to read the Forecast Discussions.   In this case, for example:

Quote
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TWO DISTINCT BRANCHES...THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE
TURN OCCURRING OVER THE BAHAMAS....WHILE THE HWRF...GFDL...AND ECMWF TAKE IKE OVER CUBA OR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  UNTIL IT BECOME CLEAR AS TO WHICH ONE OF THESE SOLUTIONS WILL PREVAIL... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN THEM...CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 


This is shown here:



...Note that none of these models (the more reliable ones) ACTUALLY points at Miami at this time.


Ike is also currently predicted to be a Cat 3 at that point (110 kts).


Finally, this is at the end of the current advisory:

Quote
AS A REMINDER...4 AND 5 DAY FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO POTENTIALLY LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.


So in other words, don't make too many bets on the position 5 days from now.  :)


   - Joe

« Last Edit: September 05, 2008, 03:25:41 AM by JoeTomasone » Report to moderator   Logged
Eclipse
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« Reply #2 on: September 05, 2008, 03:33:53 AM »

That one where it slips into the Gulf is a little scary...
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jb512
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« Reply #3 on: September 05, 2008, 07:54:59 AM »

That one where it slips into the Gulf is a little scary...

Bring it on.  We need the rain.
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BigMojo
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Posts: 259

« Reply #4 on: September 05, 2008, 12:12:26 PM »

That one where it slips into the Gulf is a little scary...

Bring it on.  We need the rain.


As the Representative from the center of the Cone of Death, you can have it.
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Ben Dickmann, Capt, CAP
Emergency Services Officer
Group 6, Florida Wing
DC
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Posts: 1,718

« Reply #5 on: September 05, 2008, 01:55:02 PM »

That one where it slips into the Gulf is a little scary...

Bring it on.  We need the rain.

Seriously... How far inland are you?
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SSgt Rudin
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« Reply #6 on: September 05, 2008, 04:24:32 PM »

Current 5 day track is that one going into the gulf...

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SSgt Jordan Rudin, CAP
DC
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« Reply #7 on: September 05, 2008, 09:20:43 PM »

Lovely.

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LtCol White
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« Reply #8 on: September 06, 2008, 12:32:27 PM »

Yeah, here we go AGAIN !!! ARRRRGGHHHHHHH
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LtCol David P. White CAP   
HQ LAWG

Admiral, Great Navy of the State of Nebraska

Diplomacy - The ability to tell someone to "Go to hell" and have them look forward to making the trip.
JohnKachenmeister
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« Reply #9 on: September 06, 2008, 02:26:43 PM »

David:

I would expect Ike to make a sharp turn north once it is past the influence of the high-pressure system in the Atlantic.  That would spare the Chocolate City, but hit AL, MS, or the FL panhandle.

If it turns north too early, it could ride straingt up the FL peninsula, but that's OK, since I just bought a couple bottles of hurricane supplies at the Class 6 store.
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Another former CAP officer
Pumbaa
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« Reply #10 on: September 06, 2008, 02:42:30 PM »

If it goes to Nagin's Chocolate City, how much you want to bet that a large percentage of people will NOT evac like last week.

With the reports of shelters being dumps, no showers, not enough beds etc... I think you will see the folks in NOLA ride it out, then we will have another Katrina Humanitarian Disaster to clean up.

More and more I see that CAP can be a good asset in terms of shelter management, and helping hands, post disaster.  We needed that here in South Central NY when we had the massive flooding in June of 2006.
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LtCol White
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« Reply #11 on: September 06, 2008, 03:19:40 PM »

David:

I would expect Ike to make a sharp turn north once it is past the influence of the high-pressure system in the Atlantic.  That would spare the Chocolate City, but hit AL, MS, or the FL panhandle.

If it turns north too early, it could ride straingt up the FL peninsula, but that's OK, since I just bought a couple bottles of hurricane supplies at the Class 6 store.

At present, Ike is following an almost identical path as Katrina. NOLA is directly in the center of the cone at this point. I thoroughly anticipate there will be another evacuation called for the city and metro area.


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LtCol David P. White CAP   
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Admiral, Great Navy of the State of Nebraska

Diplomacy - The ability to tell someone to "Go to hell" and have them look forward to making the trip.
DC
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Posts: 1,718

« Reply #12 on: September 07, 2008, 12:21:45 AM »

What says half the people that evac'ed for Gustav don't for Ike.... Hopefully people won't be that stupid, but after all the fuss over Gustav, for what amounted to a relatively minor storm, I wonder how this will play out.

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JoeTomasone
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« Reply #13 on: September 07, 2008, 12:56:03 AM »


At present, Ike is following an almost identical path as Katrina.



Not so much....







Besides, unless you have the same exact atmospheric conditions and steering currents (and you can't), the track of a previous storm is meaningless.

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DC
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« Reply #14 on: September 07, 2008, 12:57:18 AM »

At present, Ike is following an almost identical path as Katrina. NOLA is directly in the center of the cone at this point. I thoroughly anticipate there will be another evacuation called for the city and metro area.
Not really, Katrina was much further north than Ike is. Katrina crossed south FL, then swung up from the the south-west FL coast up to NOLA. Ike is projected to go through the FL Straits, hit Cuba, then slowly loop up to LA...

But, regardless, NOLA probably will be evacuated again.

Never mind, Joe Tomasone beat me to it...
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JohnKachenmeister
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« Reply #15 on: September 07, 2008, 02:02:00 PM »

Does anybody else see the irony of Hurricane Ike hitting all of Cuba hard?  After all, "Ike" (nickname of President Dwight D. Eisenhower for you guys who don't shave regularly yet) was the president when Castro took over Cuba for Communism and nationalized (stole) all the US interests there.

Now Ike is coming back for revenge?
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Another former CAP officer
stratoflyer
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Posts: 364

« Reply #16 on: September 08, 2008, 05:29:53 AM »

We got a lot of Cubans out here and not to mention Haitians. It hits home when you seem them walking around cell phone in hand trying to call loved ones back home. Suddenly you realize, it could've happened here...this real stuff. We dodged one yet again, but if it's not us, it surely is someone else who chances are they don't have the means to cope with such an event.
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"To infinity, and beyond!"

Eduardo Rodriguez, 2LT, CAP
DNall
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« Reply #17 on: September 09, 2008, 04:37:03 PM »

Dang it! I'm wait listed for Air Assault on Sunday night, but I'm on call for this freakin storm.  :(
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Smithsonia
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« Reply #18 on: September 10, 2008, 08:57:28 PM »

Maj. Joe "Sparky" Carrales and cadre are back under the wind-gun wielding Ike. Corpus Christi is looking down the barrel. Stand tall sir... it'll help keep your head above water. God Bless you and your squadron.
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With regards;
ED OBRIEN
MIKE
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« Reply #19 on: September 10, 2008, 09:20:32 PM »

Merged.
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Mike Johnston
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CAP Talk  |  General Discussion  |  The Lobby  |  Topic: Hurricanes Hannah and Ike
 


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