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CAP Talk  |  General Discussion  |  The Lobby  |  Topic: "How prepared is the USAF"? Not very, according to GAO.
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Author Topic: "How prepared is the USAF"? Not very, according to GAO.  (Read 574 times)
Live2Learn
Salty & Seasoned Contributor

Posts: 667

« on: October 11, 2018, 03:48:12 PM »

https://blog.gao.gov/2018/10/11/how-prepared-is-the-air-force/?utm_campaign=usgao_email&utm_content=daybook&utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery

The two grapics are alarming.  Multiple key metrics, including rapidly dropping pilot numbers in both absolute numbers and % of authorized levels, diminishing manufacturing capacity for all airframes, lack of skilled maintainers, unavailability of parts cast doubt on our ability to sustain a global presence.  GAO has issued similar grim news for the navy.
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PHall
Salty & Seasoned Contributor

Posts: 6,257

« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2018, 06:28:02 PM »

We've been at war for almost 18 years now. The force is worn out.
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Eclipse
Too Much Free Time Award

Posts: 29,074

« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2018, 09:40:58 PM »

Not to mention that the previous administration was drawing down forces, cycling
personnel out of the military and noticeably reduced the defense budget.

Can't have less people, money, and stuff, wear it out with slow replacement, and expect to get "better".

A strong economy usually causes issues with military staffing, at both the initial and retirement ends, and the perception
that the number of pilots needed (despite current shortfalls) long-term is going to shrink because of automation,
especially in the combat sector, makes aviation and related careers less appealing generally.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2018, 09:45:05 PM by Eclipse » Logged


Briank
Member

Posts: 80
Unit: GLR-MI-063

« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2018, 06:44:28 PM »

Young people I've talked to think it's foolish to go towards being a pilot as a career with how rapidly technology is coming along.
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TheSkyHornet
Salty & Seasoned Contributor

Posts: 1,467

« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2018, 06:08:03 PM »

Young people I've talked to think it's foolish to go towards being a pilot as a career with how rapidly technology is coming along.

If that was the case, colleges wouldn't be full of student pilots.
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Eclipse
Too Much Free Time Award

Posts: 29,074

« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2018, 06:27:10 PM »

Young people I've talked to think it's foolish to go towards being a pilot as a career with how rapidly technology is coming along.

If that was the case, colleges wouldn't be full of student pilots.

I would hazard this is an anomaly caused by the previous cycle of treating new pilots poorly in the '90s and
early 2000s which made being a pilot a poor career choice then.  It is made worse by the fact that, due to the above,
the generation of pilots who should now be experienced and moving to instruct, literally doesn't exist, resulting in a
serious lack of CFI's in the commercial space, especially.

It's a good time now to be a pilot due to the shortages caused by the industry practices mentioned above,
and the reduction of GA airports and flying generally, but this shortage will be short-lived.  I'm going to give it
10 or so years, which by then will see most of the issues of autonomous flying and driving worked out technically,
and leaving little but the legal side to deal with.

This is akin to the explosion of big-bog retailers in the 90's.  New tech opened sales markets for devices that
never existed, and then over the course of about 20 year that same tech killed retail.

Same thing is going to happen with aviation - barring an unforeseen setback, the next 5-10 years will
see full employment for all the pilots that the flight schools can make.

But 20-30 year typical careers?  Nope.

By that time, just like truck drivers, the few lucky enough to still be in the cockpit will be mandated "safety" pilots
there only in the rare occurrence that Skynet can't do its job. And every time a UAV can do the job of a traditional
pilot, whether it's crop dusting, aerial survey's, small cargo transport, movie filming, etc., that's one more out of work.
It'll trickle unseen that way as well.

Also, the $50k or so that the GAO says it cost these days to get a commercial license isn't going to help either.
« Last Edit: October 14, 2018, 06:30:14 PM by Eclipse » Logged


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