CAP Talk

Operations => Emergency Services & Operations => Topic started by: etodd on July 07, 2020, 04:45:27 pm

Title: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by: etodd on July 07, 2020, 04:45:27 pm
Are your aircrews current, including APs?
Might be seeing some action soon.  :o

(https://scontent.fatl1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/106491529_10222830689305721_4590403902297829588_n.jpg?_nc_cat=105&_nc_sid=ca434c&_nc_ohc=0U2Mcf_Fb5YAX_l4KQY&_nc_ht=scontent.fatl1-1.fna&oh=bd63713fd5e2ae0f7e32489c277c518e&oe=5F288DBC)
Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by: NIN on July 09, 2020, 11:13:33 am
I read a thing that there were less storms through the 2010s (but that the storms were more destructive), so I think it's odd that they are using comparison data from 1981-2010.

Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by: TheSkyHornet on July 09, 2020, 01:32:11 pm
Looks like they're missing a decade of statistics.
Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by: Spam on July 09, 2020, 02:33:24 pm
I noted that also. They may have chosen to use decadal data sets, and the 2010 - 2020 is obviously incomplete so far.

To NINs point, "more destructive" is an imprecise term, in that different "journalists" abuse the term freely, playing with the data to fit their chosen headline and agenda (which, many times, is merely to garner more clicks/views).

Cost, as a measure of destructiveness, is of course an interesting topic. People building on the beach, in known river bottom flood zones, and in other proven hazard areas in ever increasing numbers since 1950, and then blaming someone else for their losses is par for the course but is not really a valid measure of the energetics or the origins of the actual storm. If the "thing" you read was the Grinstead study cited by AP and the BBC (who of course labeled it "unequivocal" and failed to give equal coverage to the Knudson or Pielke studies which refuted it), it has failed to stand up to critical review (with flaws such as cherry picking to not include Galveston 1900 or Great Miami 1926, both of which were massively more damaging than, say, Katrina). There were many storms in the 20s - 50s that were more energetic than recent hurricanes, but were less "destructive" due to less human presence to destroy. Storms just gotta be stormin'. 

To some of us on this board who have extensive DR experience, and have had to deal with people annually "gaming" FEMA relief to buy themselves new vehicles/combines/structures, the topic is a sensitive one.

V/r
Spam

From Pielke (2019):
(https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.files.wordpress.com/2019/11/image-63.png)
Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by: NIN on July 09, 2020, 10:22:10 pm
The thing I saw was a reference to hurricanes and especially those making landfall in the Gulf Coast of Texas around Brownsville (IOW, pointed right at the Space X Boca Chica facility).

Let me see if there was an actual reference to legit scientific data.

And by destructive I mean really "more energetic and taking out more area" not necessarily "cause the most dollar value of damage"
Title: Re: 2020 Hurricane Season
Post by: Eclipse on July 09, 2020, 11:18:27 pm
Quote from: etodd on July 07, 2020, 04:45:27 pmAre your aircrews current,

Current in what, changing batteries?


Between point and shoot UAVs and AI, there's not going to be much need for aircrews, ground teams,
or base staff  It's going to be commercial services, 3 and 4-letter agencies, and NFPs within the very near future.

I have no idea why NHQ is so excited by this, but there you are...