http://www.capmembers.com/cap_national_hq/recruiting_and_retention/?measuring_up_determine_your_population_penetration&show=entry&blogID=1719 (http://www.capmembers.com/cap_national_hq/recruiting_and_retention/?measuring_up_determine_your_population_penetration&show=entry&blogID=1719)
This is an interesting exercise. My wing is just under the national average and my squadron is a smidge below that. One more member will put us above the wing average and two more will basically equal the national average.
It's nice to have some validation that we're doing okay, even if it's just scribbling on the back of an envelope.
Quote from: NC Hokie on April 19, 2016, 06:21:37 PM
This is an interesting exercise. My wing is just under the national average and my squadron is a smidge below that. One more member will put us above the wing average and two more will basically equal the national average.
It's nice to have some validation that we're doing okay, even if it's just scribbling on the back of an envelope.
How do you rate an envelope?
Quote from: THRAWN on April 19, 2016, 07:04:20 PM
How do you rate an envelope?
One of my many bills came in it. Paper is precious around here, so every scrap counts!
>:D
I love you guys, I really do
Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Without much work at all, one can find the "12 to 17 years" and "18 years and over" population figures from the Census Bureau for the state to ZIP code level. Pretty close to the age groups we need. Using the 12-17 range with NIN's data, his cadet number is 1/131.
The data are available through American FactFinder at http://factfinder.census.gov (http://factfinder.census.gov)
There is even a category for teenagers (15 to 19) called "Idleness," which conjures up all sorts of images. Different from the category "Fertility."
I've included a set of instructions on how to get the age specifc data.
Mike
At some point I'll do the math, but it's just going to make me sad. With ~13M people in my wing, our numbers look more like
reflection then penetration.
Something that really skews the numbers in my wing, probably others, is the lack of definition of "territory", and the fact that,
again in my wing, the major metro area has very little CAP presence, while the larger units are in the suburbs. Around here,
people drive a lot, to work, to play, to help.
So a unit in a little town looks good on paper, but it's supposed to serve a huge metro area.
Whatever - at least someone is acknowledging there >are< numbers vs. pretending everything is OK.
It would be fairly easy to look at trends in CAP vs. trends in population, since all those numbers are available.
Quote from: Eclipse on April 20, 2016, 01:56:02 AM
At some point I'll do the math, but it's just going to make me sad. With ~13M people in my wing, our numbers look more like
reflection then penetration.
Something that really skews the numbers in my wing, probably others, is the lack of definition of "territory", and the fact that,
again in my wing, the major metro area has very little CAP presence, while the larger units are in the suburbs. Around here,
people drive a lot, to work, to play, to help.
So a unit in a little town looks good on paper, but it's supposed to serve a huge metro area.
See, this is why I say "all CAP is local."
Many years ago, when I was in another wing, the unit in my group that met on the Air Guard base held an Open House. Except, hahaha, they kind of goofed and the way they advertised it, it looked like the Air Guard was having an Open House. Like an Airshow-type Open House. Ooops.
So this unit had people from all over the metro area, not just their recruiting area, descending on them. Some from over an hour away who drove to the ANGB expecting to see the Thunderbirds or something (hello? In April or May?). Somehow the unit figured out that they were going to have a bajillion people showing up, and laid on buses for a base tour, and some other cool stuff from the Air Guard (but, bummer: no Thunderbirds).
The unit commander came to the group meeting 2 weesk beforehand and asked all the units in the group for help, saying "If you come help us out, we'll make sure you get the recruits from your area!"
Maj Courter (yes, Major) and I showed up to help that day along with 15-20 people from the other squadrons. As expected, they had literally hundreds of people show up. But.. they had no program initially, so people were standing around the base theater going "Wait, this isn't an airshow? Screw this.." but then you still had people interested, etc. It was a bit of a zoo, but at the same time, hey, bodies. :)
Eventually, there was a formal presentation and during the Q&A, a gentleman stood up and said "I live in [town 60 miles away]. Is this my local unit?"
The commander of the squadron was pretty well known for being really mercenary when it came to his recruiting. He said with no hesitation "Yes, we are your local unit."
Major Courter and I looked at each other with that "What the hell?" look on our faces. To drive from where this gent lived to the ANG base, 60 miles, he had to pass a unit within 2 miles of his house, and at least FIVE other units, INCLUDING MINE. What did he mean that they were this guy's "local" unit? His definition of "local" was a little skewed.
I piped up quickly and said there was a unit at the airport near his home and I would get him some contact information. Afterwards, the unit commander came to me and tried to give me grief for telling that guy that there was another unit near him. I flat out told him "You are way, way out of line Captain. You need to be recruiting for your unit and the units around you, like you said at the group meeting. Telling a guy who has to drive past 5 units,
never mind the one that is 2 miles from his house, that your squadron is the "local unit" is a flat out lie and isn't helpful."
I do this today. Because my squadron is very successful at recruiting, we accidentally get people from Manchester, NH who get in touch with us. When I find out where they're from, I direct them to a unit that is more local to them.
"But I want to come here."
"Look, the unit closer your home is going to be more appropriate for you. If its close to home, you'll be more likely to go to meetings and activities. If you have to drive past a unit to get here you're less likely to make the 30 minute drive here when you can make a 10 minute drive to Manchester."
I really don't want people from all over the state coming to my unit (no matter how small the state) because they're not going to be as active as someone for whom getting to CAP is easier. If they are a cadet, they have to rely on mom & dad. Mom & dad are more likely to be happy about driving 10 minutes to the local sq than driving 30 minutes to mine when push comes to shove.
(This happened to me as a cadet: I grew up 4 1/2 driving miles, about 10-11 minutes, from a unit. I joined a unit that was 10+ driving miles and more like 25 minutes from me, because the unit commander, even knowing I was MUCH closer to the other unit, didn't bother to be the stand up guy and say "You know, there is a unit closer to you." Wednesday nights were a crazy mess getting from school and after-school activities to the meetings. Traffic, etc, my mom gave me no end of grief for the 2+ years she drove me to CAP before I got my license. )If units aren't "thinking and acting locally," then they're doing their membership a disservice in the name of something else.
Quote
Whatever - at least someone is acknowledging there >are< numbers vs. pretending everything is OK.
It would be fairly easy to look at trends in CAP vs. trends in population, since all those numbers are available.
There is data. Whether or not it is capable of being correlated to other data is another matter.
^^^ This x2 or 10, whichever gets you there.
To many people worried about quantity vs. quality. There are always exceptions, but local members mean people are more active and
invested in local activities.
My first round as a member / CC, the unit was near to my work, so not a big deal on meeting nights. As work got further, so
did the hassle of getting to meetings. That turns "fun" to "dread".
My current unit is less then 10 minutes from my house, which makes participation across the board a lot easier.
This issue makes the shrinkage of the number of charters all the more problematic, because these days there simply aren't that many unit left.
Quote from: Eclipse on April 20, 2016, 05:04:13 PM
This issue makes the shrinkage of the number of charters all the more problematic, because these days there simply aren't that many unit left.
If you're recruiting locally, eventually you saturate your local area pretty good and you start to draw from further away. *eventually* you wind up with little knots of members in communities that are 20-45 minutes away, maybe, where it makes sense to perhaps spin off a flight (with the eventual goal that it becomes a full-fledged squadron in 12-18 months) in that geographic area to test that.
it requires leadership development at the local unit, however, to do this. spinning up a unit from nothing and no training is 100x more difficult (I previously equated this to learning how to play Dungeons & Dragons when all you'd ever seen before was board games).
I agree, but developing remote flights, especially with the intention of turning them into squadrons requires, at a minimum, Wing coordination
if not outright pre-approval.
It's also a minefield as flight operating on their own, outside the earshot of the CC can go sideways quickly. BTDT.
Not saying it's a bad idea, but takes a level of care and personnel not current present in most wings.
If you have a concentration of over 7 people, you can actually get them a charter as a true flight. Then they have their own commander, are responsible for their own actions, and report to the group commander like everyone else (I know, I know, this isn't the way the AF does it, but in CAP reality this is the way it should work - squadron commanders shouldn't need to worry about having their own mission plus a subordinate commander to deal with).
This is technically correct, but sets up the same problems, 7 people is not enough to start or grow a squadron (minimums or no).
A charted flight requires all the SUI expectations of any other unit.
Now, there's nothing wrong with the Group allowing a number of members assigned to the group to operate independently
until they hit charter size.
But I agree having a "mini-CC" under your command is problematic.
You will note: my suggestion to spin off a flight was not "So yeah, just have a bunch of people meet someplace else," but was suggesting an actual chartered Flight. With the a number of people who are trained and able, not just a collection of "interested individuals."
We have a unit in my wing right now that has a number of people who live 30+ miles, about 45-50 minutes drive, from the unit. There is interest among the parents in standing up a chartered flight in the nearest town to this "locus of membership."
The good thing is that if this unit were to get going, it would serve as a great springboard for people further north who are interested in CAP. We have a small level of interest in getting a unit going north of the White Mountains, which is quite a haul from the next nearest unit (in some instances 70-100 miles), but the problem is that any unit that far north is VERY far from the flagpole, so to speak.
If those people were able to get to this flight that could be forming, it might be a 45-90 minute drive for some, but it would give the closer ones an opportunity to be involved in CAP, get trained (SLS, UCC, TLC, etc) and integrated into the organization with some "already experienced people" first, versus trying to train up a unit 90+ miles from Wing HQ and 75 miles from the (current) next nearest squadron. You're not able to easily put experienced people that far north on a weekly or even semi-weekly basis.