We've had dozens and dozens of threads talking about the CAP promotion system and various ways to "improve" it and a common refrain is that it should be made a little tougher to promote so that the ranks "mean something" like they do in the real military.
Well an article in the AF Times discussing the AF's need to cut a few thousand people http://www.airforcetimes.com/news/2010/06/airforce_enlisted_promotions_060610w/, had this to say:
QuoteWhile promotion through major had been guaranteed for virtually all but the poorest performers, new standards call for promoting only 95 percent of eligible first lieutenants to captain.
Down, too, is the percentage of captains who will pin on major. Only 90 percent — not the usual 95 percent — will make the grade.
The opportunity for promotion to lieutenant colonel is expected to remain at 85 percent, the same as in recent years. For promotion to colonel, the rate is projected to hold steady at 55 percent.
I find this sort of shockingthat if you become an AF officer you're almost guaranteed to make Major if you reenlist enough times.
In other words, it may just be easier to get promoted in the Air Force than in CAP. A very typical scenario in CAP is for a member to reach a certain rank and just stop doing the PD necessary to move up. Sure, they aren't "eligible" to promote since they haven't done the work, but lets be honest, up until Lt. Col. its not that hard to meet the requirements if you have any interest in doing so. But the effect is that I bet a higher percentage of CAP members stay at a certain grade than do AF members at a similar grade.
So, for all those advocating for the strong use of promotion boards to keep down the "unworthy" even if they meet all the explicit promotion requirements, be aware that even the AF routinely promotes just about everyone if they've got a pulse.
Quote from: RiverAux on June 06, 2010, 06:08:37 PM
I find this sort of shockingthat if you become an AF officer you're almost guaranteed to make Major if you reenlist enough times.
Officer's do not reenlist. They are commissioned indefinetly. They are either promoted or discharged. What this article says that the standards for promotion are being tightened.
In the past AF officers who performed marginally at best were almost guaranteed a promotion through Major, thus allowing them to stay on active duty. This seems to no longer be the case.
QuoteOfficer's do not reenlist. They are commissioned indefinetly. They are either promoted or discharged. What this article says that the standards for promotion are being tightened.
Well, the term "enlist" may not be the right one, but the point is that they keep getting promoted till they decide to leave.
QuoteIn the past AF officers who performed marginally at best were almost guaranteed a promotion through Major, thus allowing them to stay on active duty. This seems to no longer be the case.
Well, I don't see much difference between saying that now only 95% (rather than everybody) will make Captain and that only 90% will make Major (rather than 95%). That is still almost everybody for all practical purposes.
The promotion percentages and average TIG vary based on needs of the service and the expected attrition rate. Here is a article on promotions rates that we normally saw in the 80s-90s.
QuoteThe basics of these laws (known as DOMPA) require that O-3s (officers at level three, Army, Air Force and Marine Corps Captains and Navy Lieutenants) be considered for promotion after 10 years in service, and require that around 20% are "passed-over" and denied promotion. They are given another chance the following year, and then discharged if passed-over again. Over 98% of officers who fail promotion the first time fail again the next year. At the 15-year mark, O-4s go through this process, and 30% must be passed-over and retired. At the 20-year mark, O-5s are reviewed, yet only 50% can be promoted while the rest are retired.
If you are seeing higher promotion rates, it is because fewer people are taking the promotions and staying in the service. Most pilots are considered for O-4 before their initial service obligation is over. The rank structure is still a pyramid, not a slowly tapering pipe.
If you make Major you can stay through 20 years and can get a retirement.
Lieutenant Colonel is the first officer grade that is truely "competative".
If you do your PME and don't do anything stupid like drink and drive and get caught, you can make it to Major.
Last time I check, they were not checking for ACSC at the 04 board. Use to be you had to have ACSC completed by correspondance and a Masters degree to be competitive at O4.
Quote from: PHall on June 06, 2010, 07:37:12 PM
If you do your PME and don't do anything stupid like drink and drive and get caught, you can make it to Major.
Well, I am glad that has been your experience with the promotion boards. However, I had to counsel too many good officers who did everything they were told to do and did not get promoted to believe that. It does not matter how good the least qualified officer in a year group is, it still comes down to how many they plan on promoting. If the rate increased to 95% for O4 over the 80% from the 1980s, then more people get promoted. When the rate drops, fewer get promoted.
Quote from: Short Field on June 06, 2010, 08:02:04 PM
Last time I check, they were not checking for ACSC at the 04 board. Use to be you had to have ACSC completed by correspondance and a Masters degree to be competitive at O4. Quote from: PHall on June 06, 2010, 07:37:12 PM
If you do your PME and don't do anything stupid like drink and drive and get caught, you can make it to Major.
Well, I am glad that has been your experience with the promotion boards. However, I had to counsel too many good officers who did everything they were told to do and did not get promoted to believe that. It does not matter how good the least qualified officer in a year group is, it still comes down to how many they plan on promoting. If the rate increased to 95% for O4 over the 80% from the 1980s, then more people get promoted. When the rate drops, fewer get promoted.
Based on 20+ years of observation. Of course my observation point was in flying squadrons so my pov may have been different from yours.
Stuff like getting your Masters and attending SOS are expected.
It's all based upon the needs of the military, based upon the budget as decreed by congress. When congress gives money, more slots, easier promotions. Less money, less slots, tougher competition for fewer slots. Up or out..
While "up or out" is the way military promotions are usually described here and that "CAP can't do that", what we see from this AF Times story is that this isn't really the case and that you have to be truly in the bottom 5 or 10% to fall in that "out" category.
That being the case, the often-made case here that CAP needs to be more selective in promotions doesn't really hold water.
And this is only for Active Duty. Guard and Reserve Officer promotions use a totally different system.