Higher flying bar to cross now?

[Live2Learn]

In Washington the State  revenue office shows  the amount sold decliing by 1-3% per year.

Is there any background to that data or just raw numbers? Because it's at least as likely to be related to the economy in that
there are simply less GA pilots to buy it, and those still around are flying less (maybe the current slide will help that).

Also, while the 100LL phase-out isn't a trivial issue, the alternatives being developed will back fill the need.

This is long term data that shws consistent erosion in 100LL sales over the period beginng in 2000 and ending in 2008.  I've not researched more recent fuel sale data because it's easy to see that the numbers of 100LL burners continue to slide.  Just look at the ramps of any large or small airport, or the numbers and kinds of aircraft registered.  The economt is a factor, but the age of the fleet AND HOW THAT AGING FLEET IS USED! are pivotal.  Add to that pilot demographics...  Most of the EAB aircraft I know of burn Mogas... And it's easy to confirm with both personal obsevation of ramp activity and a vist to the FAA data that EAB are the major source of growth in SE piston aircraft.  It's really clear, and has been for some tme that 100LL is a 'botique' fuel serving a contracting market.

[Live2Learn]

I'm not assuming refusal on your part, but I have seen it from some older pilots.  If they aren't willing to learn to use the new equipment (on the USAF/CAP's dime), I have to wonder what else they aren't willing to learn.  Things like new FAA regulations, local airspace restrictions, TFR's, changes to 60-1 & 60-3, etc. etc. ...

"I won't" hasn't been my experience with pilots.  It's more like "You've got to be kidding me", then they go do something else.

Seems like a lot people don't see a problem.  Ok.

I think the bureaucratic nature of the organization is discouraging to potential members, pilots among 'em.  While flying is a privilige, most certainly! getting through the bureaucracy and often times opaque steps can create a strong impression that this is a closed club.  It's a big challenge to recruit and retain younger pilots.  Most of us are retired military or grizzled civilian pilots who have enough time and experience with bureaucracy that we can get through it.  Yes, I think you are on it.

[bflynn]

This is long term data that shws consistent erosion in 100LL sales over the period beginng in 2000 and ending in 2008. 

There is long term data that shows consistent erosion in the number of pilots and flying hours!  It's only logical that avgas sales would go down.

[Live2Learn]

There is long term data that shows consistent erosion in the number of pilots and flying hours!  It's only logical that avgas sales would go down.

Erosion in the number of pilots is only a very small part of the problem.  Most aircraft we fly as personal transportation or for recreation burn avgas.  However, while the number of airframes used for personal purpose is large, actual fuel consumption is minuscule.

When was the last time any of us, or anyone we know, rode on a part 121 flight powered by avgas?  While there are a few, for example Kenmore Air flew 76000 passengers in 2009, the last year I looked at their data, how many millions of passengers fly Southwest?  Delta?  American?  Air France...  There just isn't any comparison.  Even part 135 use of avgas is declining.  Very few new air frames are equipped with avgas burning engines.  None (or pretty darn close to zero) of the recent avgas burners are flying for work.  It may be comforting to think it's all about the pilot population, but the causes for avgas demand are rooted in much larger issues.  Technology has left avgas engines behind.  In many parts of the world avgas is simply not available.  Where it is available, demand for avgas is low to VERY low compared to Jet-A. 

[lordmonar]

It is simply supply and demand.

AVGAS sales are down because demand is down.

If it continues then one day no more AVGAS.

Anyone remember the VHS vs Beta wars?

One day you are going to be sitting there with your BetaMax and not be able to find any new titles..and then make the jump and buy the VHS.

Same thing here.    Is AVGAS going away?   No....FBO's will continue to provide us AVGAS for as long as there is still a demand for it.
Maybe we all may go to Jet A or MOGAS.....if that happens then at some point we will have to make the decision to swap our Beta Library to a VHS and press on.

[bflynn]

Graphed # of private pilots vs avgas.  Definitely a correlation there.

[Al Sayre]

Correlation does not equal causation...

[a2capt]

I was sorting photos .. and saw some from flying around the western US 10-12 years ago.

AVGAS prices were in the $1.50 range, about on par with MOGAS. Now that the latter has taken a nosedive, I'm sure we'll not see a blink in change on the former.

Several times I heard that the refineries create, and stash it, the amount of AVGAS for about a year, in just a day or two. So that cost is well locked in.

Yes, GA piston flight was at an all time gangbuster level, despite the decrease in active pilots, just before the economy went in the dump. At which point GA as a whole took a huge hit. Some FBOs that had gotten too snooty for piston servicing/support had to re-think their strategies, and there was change a change in the landscape overall.

I'm glad I've got the ticket now, at an average of $60/hour. My brother likes to say the whole thing, with the instructor and the airplane in the early 1970s was $6-10/hour.. the independent CFI's in the greater area seemed to go from $15-$25/hour to $50-$75/hour now. More than the operating a personally owned/interested aircraft, when it used to be even less than the typical club/rental that wasn't part of a flight school that are typically higher and more restricted as to what you can do if you don't have one of their CFI's on board..

Just like the Cessna 182 now vs. then. It was not uncommon at all for primary training to be conducted in a variety of airframes.

Now? G1000 .. the checklist .. there's a lot more going on inside the cockpit than just pushing in the red and blue knob, yelling out the window for a clear ramp and turning the key.

Just to go around the patch, it's quite an undertaking to get bird out., vs. an aircraft from just 10-12 years ago.

As these aircraft disappear from the landscape, that initial hurdle, that Private ticket, is only going to get higher.

[Al Sayre]

I noticed on the wing fuel card bill that avgas has dropped about $1/ gallon  since same time last year.  $4.30/gallon now last year $5.65/gal...

[Eclipse]

I noticed on the wing fuel card bill that avgas has dropped about $1/ gallon  since same time last year.  $4.30/gallon now last year $5.65/gal...

I was wondering if AVGAS prices were dropping like auto fuel.  I can't remember the last time I saw prices this low.

[FW]

^I notice fuel prices around $4 and $8 per gallon these days.  Prices are falling, however not everywhere.  My home base is still charging over $7/gal for 100LL.  I go a few minutes north, and I pay $4.40/gal. In perusing 100ll.com, 100LL can be found for almost $3/gal; prices like these haven't been seen since the last millennium!

[LTCinSWR]

+1 I had one chap who simply said "I'm never flying glass."  He also refused to consider flying a 182 as well.

He has long since moved on, as did a number of his compadres.

There will come a time for all of us when "the next thing" is "too much".  No harm, no foul, but CAP, nor
any other organization that wishes to remain viable, can't stifle progress, or deny the realities of the sector
just to hold the door open for people who aren't even interested in the conversation.

There is a puckish saying in the Fire Service - "150 years of tradition, unimpeded by progress". Were the Fire Service to adhere to that line of thinking, there would still be horse-drawn steamer engines, rubber bunker coats, people riding tailboards... and firefighters and 'civilians' dying.
Thankfully, the Fire Service, in large part, has embraced change, with pockets of resistance. Generally, fire losses (property and human life) have made significant declines.

Consider the same situation for CAP; missing aircraft mission duration has dropped, overall numbers of Air SAR missions have decreased and there are greater numbers of survivors from 'survivable' incidents. That is the result of adapting to technology and improving the process. The rest of CAP has to adapt to these and upcoming changes. It is a Darwinian process, both at the individual and organizational level.

Stay Safe,
Larry

[JeffDG]

I noticed on the wing fuel card bill that avgas has dropped about $1/ gallon  since same time last year.  $4.30/gallon now last year $5.65/gal...

I was wondering if AVGAS prices were dropping like auto fuel.  I can't remember the last time I saw prices this low.

AvGas is a bit different, in that, last I checked, there was only one refinery that had the tetraethyl lead necessary to make 100LL.  That, plus the fact that distribution and storage must be strictly segregated between regular and AvGas due to the TEL, make the 100LL price tend to lag price drops in conventional gasoline.