U.S. Pilot Numbers Dip Below 600,000

Started by A.Member, January 29, 2007, 05:35:16 PM

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A.Member

http://www.avweb.com/avwebflash/13_04a/briefs/Pilot_Numbers_Dip_194276-1.html

From the article:
QuoteDespite aggressive action -- including a whole new certificate classification -- to attract more people to flying, the number of certificated pilots in the U.S. dropped to 597,109, according to year-end preliminary stats released by the FAA. Rather than attract new pilots, the new Sport Pilot certificate appears to be extending the flying activity of older pilots.

Some numbers to ponder:

Average age of all pilots = 45.6 years
Average age of sport pilots (only 939) = 52.9 years
Average age of student pilot = 34.4 years
Average age of instuctors = 45.2 years

Total instructors = 91,343 pilots

ATP = 144,681
Commercial = 130,234
Private = 236,147
Recreational = 242
Student = 84,866
Rotor rating = 41,306

I find these numbers rather concerning.  Given that one of our missions is to promote aviation, how can we help?  We can help lead the way in turning these numbers around.

First, we must understand why the numbers are falling.  Certainly, a great deal must be atttributed to economics.  Over the past couple decades, the cost of flying has increased considerably.  How do we overcome that hurdle? 

In addition, how can we invigorate our youth?  Another post mentioned aerospace focused Magnet schools, such as this one:
http://farnsworth.spps.org/

What else can be done? 

The FAA and AOPA sugget this as a partial solution:
Project Pilot Mentor

Some critical thinking and innovation is needed here.
"For once you have tasted flight you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards, for there you have been and there you will long to return."

afgeo4

What about extending our flight academies to senior members? The cost is greately reduced by having instructors who are our members donating their time. The cost of our aircraft is also low. I know first hand that many adults who are initially interested CAP are interested because they think we can help them learn how to fly and get them licensed. They are primarily interested for 2 reasons:
1. Lower costs.
2. Centralized location (aircraft, instructors, other students, follow-on training, and someone to come to with questions, all in house).
3. Most are willing to donate time to our missions after completing the flight training.

I know many current senior members would be very happy to participate in something like this as well. It would also start to solve our in-house pilot shortage issue and attract a demographic of senior members we rarely get... the low to middle class 20 to 40 years of age.
GEORGE LURYE

carnold1836

I started this like an hour and a half ago so it might be redundant at this point but here it is.

A solution to get more cadets and/or sr. officers interested is some how counteract the cost prohibitive nature of getting one's ticket.

Now this is just off the cuff pulled out of the air. But why not contact the different aerospace companies and see what they would be willing to offer in the form of sponsorship of flight academies, both cadet and sr. officers. I'm not talking full funding by any means but if we could some how get flight academy tuition to be less than say $250.00 for a session with several sessions available each year. Also allow the use of CAP aircraft at a reasonable (read subsidized) rate for flight hours.

I know that there is something in place now about FBOs not getting their fair share or some such noise, or people being worried about people joining just to get the wings cheap then leave, but we are smart people I'm sure something can be figured out for both of those issues.

Hey just my $.02
Chris Arnold, 1st Lt, CAP
Pegasus Composite Squadron

DNall

Quote from: afgeo4 on January 29, 2007, 06:14:07 PM
What about extending our flight academies to senior members? The cost is greately reduced by having instructors who are our members donating their time. The cost of our aircraft is also low. I know first hand that many adults who are initially interested CAP are interested because they think we can help them learn how to fly and get them licensed. They are primarily interested for 2 reasons:
1. Lower costs.
2. Centralized location (aircraft, instructors, other students, follow-on training, and someone to come to with questions, all in house).
3. Most are willing to donate time to our missions after completing the flight training.

I know many current senior members would be very happy to participate in something like this as well. It would also start to solve our in-house pilot shortage issue and attract a demographic of senior members we rarely get... the low to middle class 20 to 40 years of age.

Small matter there of an FAA restriction against CAP conducting flight training of adults & taking business from flight schools. Also, a lot of those volunteer CFIs aren't going to volunteer to teach adults, in fact almost none of them would. I think they'd work for less pay, & maybe cold beer, but not free. The key is working with FAA on how to relax the restriction on using our planes for the task. If you can get that done, then you need to be real careful about the dynamic you create. You still can't take people off the street or that's all they'll be there for & flight schools will be out of business, thereby making the problem worse.

I do think economics is THE key issue to this problem & I don't think any amount of education can fix it. There's no shortage of people that want to fly, but people with several grand in disposable income to toss at such a hobby & no bigger priority in their lives are in a bit shorter supply. I don't know what you can do about it. The  standards are there for safety & shouldn't be toyed with. The flight schools & CFIs aren't making a killing. The aircraft prices are higher than I like. I mean survey the population & ask them if they'd rather go out & buy a new Ferarri or a Cessna, how you think that's going to come out? The biggest thing is fuels though. Man if you can realistically fix national gas prices any time soon I'm pretty sure you can get elected king. I just don't see a solution there, innovative or otherwise.

I'm all for working with AFA, AOPA, FAA, & NASA (like to buy an "A") to advance AE targeted at this issue, but I don't see it helping even as much as a drop in the bucket.

A.Member

#4
Thinking "out loud" here...

As it relates to economics, there are a lot of different scholarships available by numerous organizations.  They vary in size.  Often times, our own cadets don't take advantage of these.   We can do a better job of staying updated on these opportunities and promoting them to our cadets.

At the same time, can we raise awareness to other organizations/companies to provide scholarships (increase the pool)?  By raising awareness to the general public and by targeting specific companies perhaps we can develop a supplement to the costs involved.  The key is to "sell" the benefits of doing (i.e. why should company XYZ establish/help fund such a program - what do they get out of it?).

How can we help shift the mindset from "buying a Ferrari" to flying a Cessna?  How do we help create/reinforce the desire and romance of flying?

As to the "Senior Flight Academy" idea, I kind of like it.  Whether it takes the student all the way through their first solo or if it's in some other form could be another discussion.  Regardless, the only major concern I have is that we'd have to reign the program in very tightly for adults.  We'd need to ensure it doesn't further the flying club mentality - and that is easier said than done.
"For once you have tasted flight you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards, for there you have been and there you will long to return."

carnold1836

Well if we ever get to the point where Sr Officers get the opportunity to get their private rating through the CAP (after jumping through all the flaming hoops!) have some minimum requirements, such as Capt and MO rating. This way someone doesn't join in May goes to the flight academy to get solo rating and then uses his/her status as a CAP member to get into a flying club somewhere on the cheap (apparently that is happening in some locations).

Again just some thoughts.
Chris Arnold, 1st Lt, CAP
Pegasus Composite Squadron

JohnKachenmeister

Call me a rebel, but...

I don't see any percentage to having officers learn to fly through CAP.  If we get intop the flight instruction business, in addition to getting all the local flight schools PO'ed at us, we will train people who will disappear after they get their licenses.

Add a mandatory membership period for flight candidates, and we will have ghosts until their mandatory membership period is over, then they will disappear.

If I had it to do... I'd establish semi-permanent cadet academies around the country.  I'd put the CAP C-172's there, and make pilot training a coveted goal of the cadet program.  Do good earning your Mitchell, look good to a selection board, and spend a month or two living in a barracks under strict military discipline reminiscent of the old Aviation Cadet program, and at the end of the encampment, you get wings pinned on you.

I'd like to see 100 new private pilots a year.  That would re-vitalize the cadet program, and add young pilots to the GA ranks.
Another former CAP officer

A.Member

#7
More thoughts...

Rather than looking at a senior flight academy as "teaching them to fly", how about more of an incentive program?  Not unlike o-flights?  Perhaps we can assist in securing financing (low/no interest loans)?

How about working with USAF to get some incentive rides for cadets in something "cool", like the Wagon or a Mud Hen (even a Tweet or Talon)?  Perhaps if a cadet obtains a certain level they become eligible, x-number each year are chosen (ex. every Spaatz award gets one).  In the real AF, incentive rides are offered to crew chiefs, AFA cadets lobby squadrons for them (there was actually a funny e-mail about this making the rounds a few weeks ago), even the media is afforded the opportunity for incentive rides.  SUPTFC is the closest we have, can we build upon/supplement that great opportunity?
"For once you have tasted flight you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards, for there you have been and there you will long to return."

BillB

John....In Florida this was considered. Place the C-172's at the Keystone heights Airport and have the cadets stay in barracks at Camp Blanding (there is a back road from Blanding to the airport, the airport used to be part of Blanding). Somewhere I have the figures that 25 cadets could be run through a two week program to get a minimum of solo rating.
Another plan was for cadets to do all of their ground school in local areas (Squadrons or Groups over a couple of weekends, then have flight training on three weekends at a central location. This cut the costs almost in half over the two week concept.
The current SER Commander, while a cadet went through a two week flight encampment at a public airport in Miami with the cadets billeted at Homestead AFB. The cost back then was about $700 for the 2 weeks and flight training.
The problem....finding CFI's to train cadets.
Gil Robb Wilson # 19
Gil Robb Wilson # 104

DNall

we run a pretty successful wing flight academy in Texas each year. Capacity is 20. Cost is about $1100 which doesn't gurantee solo of course, but should get them close. We used to have 5x$500 scholarships each year to help cover it & a couple more each year from dedlian & other type orgs that weren't consistent from year to year. None of this would be possible for adults though. MAYBE subsidised loans, but try getting that thru congress. You know there's a VA reimbursment program floating around too.

A.Member

#10
Quote from: DNall on January 29, 2007, 09:18:24 PM
MAYBE subsidised loans, but try getting that thru congress.
Maybe we, as an organization don't supply the loans necessarily, but, by raising awareness to various corporations, we convince "someone" to offer them?  Of course, as with anything, it's the "convincing" part that is most difficult.
"For once you have tasted flight you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards, for there you have been and there you will long to return."

DNall

Quote from: A.Member on January 29, 2007, 09:21:56 PM
Quote from: DNall on January 29, 2007, 09:18:24 PM
MAYBE subsidised loans, but try getting that thru congress.
Maybe we, as an organization don't supply the loans necessarily, but, by raising awareness to various corporations, we convince "someone" to offer them?  Of course, as with anything, it's the "convincing" part that is most difficult.
I was thinking morew the format of federally gurnatted student loans. You know so a bank actually issues it & if you default the govt picks it up, which keeps the interest rate real low & govt has broad ability to squash you if you don't pay up. I just don't see Congress syaing of all the national priorities we have that helping people (CAP members or not) become pilots is in the spectrum of things we HAVE to do.

A.Member

#12
Quote from: DNall on January 29, 2007, 11:31:13 PM
I was thinking morew the format of federally gurnatted student loans. You know so a bank actually issues it & if you default the govt picks it up, which keeps the interest rate real low & govt has broad ability to squash you if you don't pay up. I just don't see Congress syaing of all the national priorities we have that helping people (CAP members or not) become pilots is in the spectrum of things we HAVE to do.
Maybe not but then again I wouldn't look to the government to solve any problem. :P ;)  One thing is for certain though, no one will know it's an issue if it isn't brought to their attention.
"For once you have tasted flight you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards, for there you have been and there you will long to return."

DNall

Granted. There's already financing programs out there, but they don't do anything to cut down the 8 grand to PPL. I mean really, I don't think the dif between 2.5 & 6% is stopping anyone from going that route. I don't think you're going to get taxpayer dollars thrown at individuals (especially adults) getting a pilot's license. I mean who gets that & who doesn't. I'm sure the manufactures would love to help with programs that create new customers, as would AOPA... I just don't know if they can throw enough money at the problem.

Nah, I think the best thing you can do is cite those numbers back to FAA & ask them if there's any circumstance under which we could do adult instruction for our members if we limit it to a certain number per year in each state by population or something like that. They MIGHT be willing to budge under some real tight rules. At least runa  test case one year & see how that goes.

carnold1836

I want to be one of the first on that list for TXWG. I want my ticket so badly I can taste it, but in no way am I even close to being able to afford even the sport pilot rating. :-\
Chris Arnold, 1st Lt, CAP
Pegasus Composite Squadron

RiverAux

I had thought I read last year that pilot numbers were actually on the increase?  Maybe that was the number of registered planes?  Any historical trend data available for either?

A.Member

Quote from: DNall on January 30, 2007, 12:13:56 AM
Granted. There's already financing programs out there, but they don't do anything to cut down the 8 grand to PPL. I mean really, I don't think the dif between 2.5 & 6% is stopping anyone from going that route. I don't think you're going to get taxpayer dollars thrown at individuals (especially adults) getting a pilot's license. I mean who gets that & who doesn't. I'm sure the manufactures would love to help with programs that create new customers, as would AOPA... I just don't know if they can throw enough money at the problem.

Nah, I think the best thing you can do is cite those numbers back to FAA & ask them if there's any circumstance under which we could do adult instruction for our members if we limit it to a certain number per year in each state by population or something like that. They MIGHT be willing to budge under some real tight rules. At least runa  test case one year & see how that goes.
In all honesty, while I think it'd be great to get seniors involved, my greater concern is getting younger people involved (college-age and under) in aerospace.  The ages cited in my original post don't paint a very bright picture.
"For once you have tasted flight you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards, for there you have been and there you will long to return."

DNall

You're 16-25 & want a pilots license, go wash planes at a flight school to work it off. I know at least half a dozen people done it that way, more than any CAP program. You want to go the CAP or traditional route, there's scholarships laying around all over the place. Hell you can mow a couple yards each weekend for a year & pay for the CAP route. It's not hard. Our cadets have plenty of opportunities if they're driven, that being a pretty important aspect of getting thru the training. Every other kid in the world faces the same time & economic restrictions as everyone else.

afgeo4

Is CAP not allowed to instruct ANY adults in their aircraft?  Not even people who are CAP members?
GEORGE LURYE

Pylon

Quote from: afgeo4 on January 30, 2007, 04:19:42 AM
Is CAP not allowed to instruct ANY adults in their aircraft?  Not even people who are CAP members?

My simple understanding of it is:

No, CAP airplanes are not for hire in that manner and CAP Senior Members can't train for their PPL in CAP aircraft.  CAP SMs Pilots (read: already a qualified pilot with their PPL) can, however, receive instruction in the CAP aircraft towards higher and other ratings.
Michael F. Kieloch, Maj, CAP