CAP Speculative Fiction

[Private Investigator]

So the next "Red Dawn" movie will not have CAP Cadets in it?   

[Eclipse]

From a legal perspective, Congress appropriates and the USAF administers CAP's funding.

CAP is a package, and requires the full sum of its parts.  The planes are there for ES, but some cost justification
is made for O-Rides, etc.  Most of the other parts work the same way.

Broken up, we are pretty much a shell.

$20 million is penny rounding on spilled coffee for the USAF, and if we separated in pieces from the USAF
I would hazard the money would simply be gone.

HLS doesn't work (no need for cadets or aviation advocacy), the Guard is a "maybe" because most states are broke
and would have no idea what to do with us, full separation and independence doesn't work because we're such a
glacier that while other options might be more expensive, they also have a lot less B-S overhead, not to mention
any credibility as a cadet program is lost.

Without free / cheap access to military facilities my wing would have 3-5+ charters instantly homeless, not to mention
two encampments which would have no place to go and likely be prohibitively expensive (or become just another
"band camp" in the noise of all the other activities kids have access to these days).

There's no CAP without cadets or ES because the funding, people, equipment, and affinity are too interdependent and
intertwined.

[lordmonar]

b.  We could probably keep the cadet program as most of that funding is actually at the local level....CAP CP is way way way cheaper then AFJROTC as the USAF does not pay any of our salaries!  If they were going to ax any program it would be AFJROTC....say good bye to NCSA's though.

c.  Loosing the USAF uniform for the cadets though would probably kill the program though.....but we would not need USAF permission to use their uniforms under title 10......so we could keep them.

In my scenario, though, CP no longer exists, so the issue of keeping uniforms for cadets is moot.  However, I had not considered Title 10, which (I suppose) is how state SDF's get to use them with even fewer modifications than we have to; i.e., only changing a nameplate or collar brass.

I am unsure that I agree with you about AFJROTC being axed before us, because it has always seemed to me that the AF "likes" AFJROTC a lot better than they do us.

If the USAF is looking to cut things because of money they will cut AFJROTC before the cut CAP CP.
a.  It costs the USAF a hell of lot more then all of the CAP CP money.
b.  CAP could take up the slack from AFJROTC for way less money.
c.  CAP could keep the CP even if we don't get any USAF funding......just no O-rides, NCSAs, Free Uniforms.  CP at the unit and wing level would hardly be affected.

Just a not on your speculative fiction about F-35........by your time line the F-35 is going to be a mature platform.   Pulling airframes from the bone yard would just be stupid........it would be cheaper to buy something from over seas instead of refurbing antiques.

IF the 35 ever comes into full service!  The RAAF has more or less pulled out and bought off-the-shelf F/A-18E/Fs.  The RCAF are considering a similar move with the Dassault Rafale or Eurofighter Typhoon.

No....the F-35 is going to happen.   They are delivering operational aircraft to operation squadrons now (Luke got their first on March 14.  They have been at the Operational Testing squadron at Nellis for a year.   Even if all the other counties pull out....the USAF is committed.

OK, "boneyard" scenario aside, there are brand new, ultramodern F-16's being built for customers like Poland and the United Arab Emirates, that, "stealth" aside, are probably as capable as the F-35 would be......not to mention the F-15E "Slam Eagle" derivatives being built for South Korea, Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Which will be shot down if they ever go head to head with China, Russia or any country with the Typhoon, Rafale, or Grippen.

[lordmonar]

Am I wrong, or is the fact that we are Congressionally...mandated? Is that the word? Wouldn't that take the premise out of the hands of the Air Force? I mean, they could request we be removed as the aux, and since Congress comes up with funding for the Air Force and allocates the money to us...isn't it their problem, and not Ma Blue?

Or am I completely ignorant of the process and how Congress and the Air Force regard us?

$20 million a year won't buy many newfangled jets in my eyes. Basing that number on my last viewing of what the Air Force/Congress gives us a bunch of years back.

We are Congressionally Chartered.  We have an MOU and get a GRANT from the USAF to do our operations.  All our money comes from congress, through the USAF via the Defense Authorization Bill.   CAP is a line item on that bill so it is difficult (but not impossible) for the USAF to just stop paying us.

I am assuming what Cyborg is proposing is that the USAF decided not to ask for CAP funding in 2025 and congress agreed to it.
Okay it would save them some money.......until you address the costs we saved the USAF from having to fly SAR and CD missions.

I know the cost of a C-130 per hour is a little bit more then a Cessna.

[lordmonar]

CAP is a package, and requires the full sum of its parts.  The planes are there for ES, but some cost justification
is made for O-Rides, etc.  Most of the other parts work the same way.

Broken up, we are pretty much a shell.

I disagree CAP is a package.
If we freeze ES funding today......there is no reason why CAP could not continue. 
If we freeze all CP activities.....most of the ES guys would not even blink as the cadets have almost zero impact in our ES function.
AE is freebee anyways.......except interally we hardly do any AE right now.

So no CAP is not a package.........it could break up into three different organizations.....

$20 million is penny rounding on spilled coffee for the USAF, and if we separated in pieces from the USAF
I would hazard the money would simply be gone.

HLS doesn't work (no need for cadets or aviation advocacy), the Guard is a "maybe" because most states are broke
and would have no idea what to do with us, full separation and independence doesn't work because we're such a
glacier that while other options might be more expensive, they also have a lot less B-S overhead, not to mention
any credibility as a cadet program is lost.

You are thinking too small.   HLS, FEMA, State Troopers, State EMS could pay for the ES side of our organisation...while we solicit funding from other sources for the cadet programs.   

If you shop at Sears......I don't care what they carry in the Woman's department so long as I can get my tools in the Men's department.
We offer a good cheap hourly rate for our aircraft and we open up our aircraft for more missions (no USAF no Posse Commutadas) we could easilly recover a lot of the money we lost from the USAF.   It is eaven a failry simple sell.   We got $30M from the USAF....that is only $600K per state!   That's is way cheaper then flying a single C-130 on a SAR sortie (a C-130 is about $10,000 per hour).

Without free / cheap access to military facilities my wing would have 3-5+ charters instantly homeless, not to mention
two encampments which would have no place to go and likely be prohibitively expensive (or become just another
"band camp" in the noise of all the other activities kids have access to these days).

BSA exists with our free acess to military facilities.  Sure we would have to scramble to but there are lots of units that don't meet on Air Bases.

There's no CAP without cadets or ES because the funding, people, equipment, and affinity are too interdependent and
intertwined.

Again....I disagree with this basic premise.....but even it it was true.....our paying customers would pay for what they use....We could survive with out USAF backing. 

Yes we would be a different organization.......but we would still exist.

[Eclipse]

The BSA's use of military facilities is an anomaly - a cool thing to do to change the pace or fulfill a merit badge requirement, CAP's is a need.
The BSA is incredibly well-funded, including significant capital investment in facilities, campgrounds, and lot of paid employees.
CAP has none of that, and it would take years if not decades to get to a self-sustaining model.

Saying "not all units meet on a military base" is true, but that doesn't replace the facility for those probably 20-some percent
that would lost their homes, not to mention the encampments.  In my wing, those same units that meet on or near bases also
tend to be the more active and larger units, or they provide ancillary support for a large geographic area.  You can't replace an entire
floor on a base, with access to billeting, classrooms, mess halls, drill halls, gyms, and huge parking area by moving to the
basement of a local church.

ES guys not noticing the CP is gone?  Which CAP are you in?  In my wing, the majority of ES guys are the CP guys. Lose one and you lose both.

As to customer-funded missions.  Maybe NVWG is running so many missions they have money to spare, and I know some wings
get serious state appropriations, but in my wing and region, those customer-funded missions are few and far between and wouldn't
remotely sustain the ownership of aircraft, let alone training, and misc costs.  They pay for the small chunk of time we're working for them,
nothing else, and at the bare minimum cost.  The other 11.5 months of the year, those planes are sitting on someone else's nickel.

Also, and I don't think you can discount this, having the USAF oversight and paramilitary structure, such that it is, keeps
some "personalities" in check.  Lose one or both, and especially combined with losing the CP, and CAP could rapidly become the
worst of the worst of the GOB / FBO crowd.

BTW - $30M / $10K is 3000 flying hours.  I'd be pleasantly surprised if we we clocked 3000 real mission hours as a national organization last year.
We've got pockets of busy wings, but a lot not doing much of anything.

[lordmonar]

The BSA's use of military facilities is an anomaly - a cool thing to do to change the pace or fulfill a merit badge requirement, CAP's is a need.
The BSA is incredibly well-funded, including significant capital investment in facilities, campgrounds, and lot of paid employees.
CAP has none of that, and it would take years if not decades to get to a self-sustaining model.

I agree.....but the premise is that we can't exist with out the USAF funding.....I say we can....sure we would be hurting for a while....but we can survive.

Saying "not all units meet on a military base" is true, but that doesn't replace the facility for those probably 20-some percent
that would lost their homes, not to mention the encampments.  In my wing, those same units that meet on or near bases also
tend to be the more active and larger units, or they provide ancillary support for a large geographic area.  You can't replace an entire
floor on a base, with access to billeting, classrooms, mess halls, drill halls, gyms, and huge parking area by moving to the
basement of a local church.

You can if you try.

ES guys not noticing the CP is gone?  Which CAP are you in?  In my wing, the majority of ES guys are the CP guys. Lose one and you lose both.

I guess I'm in the CAP where the ES guys don't care about cadets......the one where no cadet under 18 is allowed to fly.  The one where very few cadets are actually called out on ground teams because the ES guys or the controlling agency does not want "kids" around.

As to customer-funded missions.  Maybe NVWG is running so many missions they have money to spare, and I know some wings
get serious state appropriations, but in my wing and region, those customer-funded missions are few and far between and wouldn't
remotely sustain the ownership of aircraft, let alone training, and misc costs.  They pay for the small chunk of time we're working for them,
nothing else, and at the bare minimum cost.  The other 11.5 months of the year, those planes are sitting on someone else's nickel.

Now you are not really paying attention.  Right now there are not state/local funded missions....because the USAF is paying for it....but according to this premise that money is gone.....so now the STATE and/or County must search for the missing plane and/or person.  So pre 2025 we would get our wing and region ES guys to work with the states to fund ES and ES training for their states.   Again it would be cheaper to give us the money to do the work then to hire their own guys to do it.

Also, and I don't think you can discount this, having the USAF oversight and paramilitary structure, such that it is, keeps
some "personalities" in check.  Lose one or both, and especially combined with losing the CP, and CAP could rapidly become the
worst of the worst of the GOB / FBO crowd.

We can keep the paramilitary structure....and I don't see the USAF controlling the loose cannons any.  And again.......we don't need to USAF to keep the CP......they pay for very little of that.

[quoteBTW - $30M / $10K is 3000 flying hours.  I'd be pleasantly surprised if we we clocked 3000 real mission hours as a national organization last year.
We've got pockets of busy wings, but a lot not doing much of anything.
[/quote]]According to the 2012 Air University Report we flew 2969 hours in 1432 sorties over 703 real SAR missions
We flew 8362 hours in CD missions.

http://www.au.af.mil/au/cf/cfa/digests/aue_digest_12.pdf

So you don't say cite please. 

Bottom line for Cyborg is that CAP is cheap.....really, really, really cheap for what we do.
Sure maybe someday congress is just going to say "sorry we got to cut all the non-essentials" and CAP goes out the door.

But the mission is still going to be there.   And there will be people like Wilson and LeGuardia who see a need that we can fill and work to make it happen.

I'll be one of those people.....even if the cadet program is just base in Las Vegas.....I'll keep it going.  I know that just about all of the pilots down here would form up a "flying club" where we would train to do aerial SAR.  I know there is a "private" GSAR organization in Las Vegas that we are working with closely.....and I'm sure there would be one or two people who would just love to go to schools and community meetings to teach people about the cool stuff of AE.

So....CAP would change....but we could survive as a national organization.....if we want it to.

[RiverAux]

I think that the only thing that gives us any real legitimacy in the ES world is our link to the Air Force.  Without that we are just another volunteer group that may exist somewhere down near the bottom of the call list but is not going to be a real player. 

And without federal funding I would be very surprised if we could keep a significant fraction of our aircraft and I just don't think we have enough folks with planes to take up the slack. 

If this situation had occurred in the 50s or 60s, CAP probably could have continued for a while in the new format, but with easily available satellite technology and with every state soon having a National Guard with drones coming out their ears that need to be used for something, light aircraft are not long for the ES world anyway even when they may be the most cost effective solution to certain problems. 

CAP does a horrible job raising big money from outside groups right now.  Perhaps because folks aren't inclined to give to a group primarily funded by the feds.  In order to exist without that funding we'd have to dramatically increase our effectiveness in this area, I don't see it happening.  The BSA didn't go from near total federal funding to near total donations overnight.  They grew from a small organization to a very large one while learning how to fundraise at the same time.  If they had to start over from scratch they probably wouldn't make it either.

[SunDog]

Drones sem-suck for eyeball searches; probably better for ELTs, photography,  hi-bird. Navy replaced some UAV missions with U2's, but I heard that was for $$$ savings mostly. Likely always be a mix, unless management doesn't let facts sway them in the face of higher truths.

[Eclipse]

The BSA didn't go from near total federal funding to near total donations overnight.  They grew from a small organization to a very large one while learning how to fundraise at the same time.  If they had to start over from scratch they probably wouldn't make it either.

Most BSA fundraising is based on local selling of popcorn / candy, etc., etc.  Fine for Scouts, and it sustains their operations
for camps and unit activities, and frankly it's impressive compared to the shoe-string most CAP units run on,
but it would not sustain owning and operating an aircraft, nor would most adults be interested in standing in front
of a Walmart hocking candy just for the "privilege" of working SAR missions for free as well.

If CAP had to go to full-on financial independence, our per-hour customer cost would sky-rocket to the same levels as everyone else
who has to include capital and full operating costs in their invoices, at which point the ROI on volunteers vs. professional assests
shrinks significantly.

We're a bargain at $130 an hour, at $500-1000 we're not worth the hassle.

[Luis R. Ramos]

ES without cadets...?

As Eclipse stated, what CAP are you living?

In my state, cadets do not fly. But...

Who marshals aircraft in the flightline? Cadets. Have pilots and aircrew push their airplanes into the hangar, who seem to be on the majority 55, 60 or older? Doubtful...

Who provides most of the MSA duties at a mission base? Cadets. To include picking trash, opening chairs, and tables, and folding them... Senior members? Doubt it.

Who provides most of the Ground Teams? Cadets.

ES without CP? Cannot happen.

Flyer

[lordmonar]

ES without cadets...?

As Eclipse stated, what CAP are you living?

In my state, cadets do not fly. But...

Who marshals aircraft in the flightline? Cadets. Have pilots and aircrew push their airplanes into the hangar, who seem to be on the majority 55, 60 or older? Doubtful...

Who provides most of the MSA duties at a mission base? Cadets. To include picking trash, opening chairs, and tables, and folding them... Senior members? Doubt it.

Who provides most of the Ground Teams? Cadets.

ES without CP? Cannot happen.

Flyer

I'm gonna assume you had the [sarcasm][/sarcasm] tags on. 

[Luis R. Ramos]

No sarcasm.

Flyer

[lordmonar]

No sarcasm.

Flyer

Are you suggesting that your wing can't  do ES because you can't push your planes, and pick the trash?

[Luis R. Ramos]

No.

Remember the scenario.

The discussion is about whether Emergency Services can work without cadet programs.

I am stating that cadet programs are essential to ES. Someone else, I think it was the OP stated that cadet programs are not that important to ES.

If my Wing did not have CP, then ES would be more difficult.

And that is what I see in ES in my Wing.

Seldom do I see aircrew pushing airplanes.

I see a lot of cadets marshaling aircraft.

I see a lot of cadets preparing tables and chairs. And when there are no cadets around but ten seniors, I have to put up those tables and chairs since almost no other senior present will.

Flyer

[Eclipse]

I am stating that cadet programs are essential to ES. Someone else, I think it was the OP stated that cadet programs are not that important to ES.

The CP is irrelevant to ES.

The people involved in the CP make up the majority of those also involved in ES, and without the CP, would leave CAP, that
includes many valued commanders and a significant portion of CAP's braintrust.

In many cases you would be left with a small number of operators and no leaders, and no one interested in being a leader.
You can't argue that this isn't a big issue in CAP today - people who want to "play", but are not interested in doing any of the
background work that keeps the planes in the sky and the missions coming.  A lot of that work is being done by commanders and staff with a primary focus in the CP.  These people can't be replaced overnight.

A lot of composite squadrons are essentially cadet units with "a few pilots" who are interested in nothing but doing the bare
minimum to maintain their flying status, and when asked to carry a corner, balk wholeheartedly.  Absent the CP, these units
fold and these members are sent to the winds.

They cannot be unwound, and CAP cannot sustain its existence without them.

[sarmed1]

Sooo many points so little time...
Some that jump out:
Personally I see the reverese scenario; as USAF budgets get crunched I see the scenario going the other way: 60,000 vounteers that the USAF can call on to help support non-combat mission support instead of paying AD, Reserve or Guard airman to come and help out with...win win (I know the practical application may be not as believable, but as far as paper plans it looks good...

But, I have to say that in line with the OP scenario that CAP would survive, though as mentioned a different animal. 
I come from a state with limited military facilities.  Most units do not meet on any kind of military (base or even reserve centers).  I remember 9/11 FPCON delta and charlie, most base housed units had to find new homes for a while.  Its a doable thing.  The logistics would suck for a while but it would work itself out.  As far as encampments go, even when I lived in TX, a very military rich state, they had problems finding available space to host at a reasonable price... civilian locations were more available and better priced. 

....nor would most adults be interested in standing in front of a Walmart hocking candy just for the "privilege" of working SAR missions for free as well.

I am sorry I have seen this very thing happen with non CAP SAR units, for some its the only way to get ANY funding.

My guess with a funding down turn you would see more small units consolidated into single meeting locations (at least in areas where there are numerous units with in a close geographic area.  I agree the subsidized cost of aircraft ops would go away and the operating per hour cost would increase, but maybe along with unit consolidation you would see aircraft numbers decreased but shared among more members/units you still get the number of hours you need, but the scheduling gets a little more complicated

Overall it would be a game changer, but not a game ender.

mk

[Eclipse]

Personally I see the reverese scenario; as USAF budgets get crunched I see the scenario going the other way: 60,000 vounteers that the USAF can call on

It's not 60K by a long shot, and the day NHQ stops publishing that it is, light will be seen again at the other end of the tunnel.

There's 59K on the roster as of today, and I'd hazard 30%+ are empty shirts, non-players,
or not involved in ES.  Possibly closer to 40%, and if it passed 50%, I wouldn't be at all surprised.

Before CAP could ever be considered as replacements or augmentation for budgeted airman and troops,
there would need to be a wholesale attitude adjustment regarding readiness, troop strength, and the
expectaiton of performance.

"You're luck I showed up at all." is no way to run a war...

[The CyBorg is destroyed]

I have known plenty of aircrew who thoroughly dislike the CP, and will take any avenue that they can to avoid giving O-rides or having anything to do with "those kids."

However, I have not really seen this in composite units...much more so (surprise!) senior squadrons.

[SunDog]

I am stating that cadet programs are essential to ES. Someone else, I think it was the OP stated that cadet programs are not that important to ES.

The CP is irrelevant to ES.

The people involved in the CP make up the majority of those also involved in ES, and without the CP, would leave CAP, that
includes many valued commanders and a significant portion of CAP's braintrust.

In many cases you would be left with a small number of operators and no leaders, and no one interested in being a leader.
You can't argue that this isn't a big issue in CAP today - people who want to "play", but are not interested in doing any of the
background work that keeps the planes in the sky and the missions coming.  A lot of that work is being done by commanders and staff with a primary focus in the CP.  These people can't be replaced overnight.

A lot of composite squadrons are essentially cadet units with "a few pilots" who are interested in nothing but doing the bare
minimum to maintain their flying status, and when asked to carry a corner, balk wholeheartedly.  Absent the CP, these units
fold and these members are sent to the winds.

They cannot be unwound, and CAP cannot sustain its existence without them.

Wow! Almost agree with Eclipse. . .except the pilots I know do a lot more than the bare minimum to stay current. I also doubt that's the case "in a lot" of sqdns. More griping about pilots, forgetting that staying MP proficient takes a bunch of time. . .PIC envy, maybe?

But otherwise, yes. . .he called it; our most active non-pilot members are heavy into CP, and chase the paper and other SAS to feed the machine. We need them. Or, we need nhq to clean up the business processes. Not likely, huh? So if CP folks also tend to be ES support people, and I think they are, then we may need to pause before dropping CP.

I've never seen cadets push an airplane in my wing; us old guys do that.  Pretty sure marshalling is good for cadets, but not really necessary in the real world.  We tend to launch SAREX and other missions out of home base now - not a lot of flying to a mission base, then briefing and heading back out. We use telephones, and save the gas and time.  The days of regularly occuring aircraft gaggles at mission bases are dwindling.