Mission Decline

[RiverAux]

A poster on another thread recently stated that there has been a decline in the number of CAP missions.  Unfortunately, the CAP annual reports that I have over the last 6 years are too inconsistent to get good numbers for all years, but it looks like 2500-3000 has been about normal.

Given the weakness in our own reports, lets look at the AFRCC reports.  Here are their mission totals:
1994: 2825
1995: 2815
1996: 2734
1997: 2699
1998: 2851
1999: 2719
2000: 2739
2001: 2814
2002: 2989
2003: 2937
2004: 2734
2005: 2441

Now, I certainly wouldn't say that this is much of a decline.  In fact, this is a remarkably stable number of missions.  For 2001 onward I could try to dig through the data to figure out how many are CAP missions, but its going to be just about as high a percentage as we usually advertise (85-95%). 

What about missing airplane searches, our bread and butter.  I don't have the data for them going back as far, but this is what I have and it also seems fairly stable.  Year: Missions (Saves/Assists) 

1999: 86    (3/0)     
2001: 129  (21/5)
2002: 113  (11/13)
2003: 118  (14/4)
2004: 107  (15/0)
2005: 107  (9/1)

Now, I've always thought missing persons was an activity CAP isn't used enough in.  What do those stats look like for mission numbers and (saves/assists)?  Again, generally stable. 

1999: 185  (33/40)
2001: 123  (48/48)
2002: 149  (55/35)
2003: 122  (75/27)
2004: 122  (50/25)
2005: 150  (49/37)

[arajca]

How many of those missions involve more than one or two a/c and an IC?

[RiverAux]

They aren't detailed enough to say anything about that.  I didn't break out the ELT missions but as you would expect they account for the vast majority of the missions and most of them are handled as you say. 

Just to be clear, the total missions, missing airplane missions, and missing person missions are AFRCC totals and do not represent CAP missions specifically.  I can tell you how many are CAP missions (if I want to add it up by hand), but I can't tell you how many CAP missing airplane searches, missing person searches, etc. there were.  They don't break the mission types out by agency. 

[Psicorp]

What I'd be curious to see is whether the reduced number of calls from the AFRCC matches a decline in NTSB investigations. In other words, are we getting called less or is general aviation getting safer overall?

[floridacyclist]

Or are most ELT searches these days being closed by calling the pilot/boatowner and telling him that his beeper is beeping?

[Eclipse]

How many of those missions involve more than one or two a/c and an IC?

What's your point?  A mission is a mission.

I wonder how the Katrina and Challenger missions were handled? Was that just a single mission, or broken out. 

Those who participated got more sorties in a week than some members get in a career.

In ILWG, if anything, the numbers are up.  And I would think the "average" annual ELT's, etc., plus one major, multi-state deployment, are about all CAP could handle in a given year.

What about CN and that border stuff?  Do those go through AFRCC?

Who's saying are numbers are dropping?

[floridacyclist]

I know ours have dropped; ee get a mission maybe every few months now. Makes it difficult to keep interest up among those who are not far-sighted enough to realize that the way to keep the ES flame burning is through more training exercises.

Our sq CC says it has to do with a combination of the price of avgas going up and a reduced amount of general aviation flying (since we rarely get called to look for airliners) and the fact that the new technologies have eliminated a large number of false alarm ELT calls...which still probably show up on AFRCC boks as a mission even thoguh they were solved with a phone call.

[arajca]

As the person who commented on the decline in the number of missions in the Snack food for thought thread in regards to my idea for an ES Training ribbon, I based my comment on personal experience. In CO, we may have as many as ONE mission a year that involves more than a couple a/c and an IC. We have many that are handled from the IC's living room without any other incident support staff. These do not involve ground teams.

The maybe one mission per year that do involve more than a bare minimum of resources are dealt with using local gt's and support personnel (i.e. IC makes a few phone calls to the folks he knows), effectively preventing the majority of the members from particpating. So, tying back to the source of the comment, what is the incentive for the bulk of the members to maintain their skills?

[JohnKachenmeister]

Florida may be unique.  Most of the missing/overdue aircraft searches are solved by the Sheriff when somebody calls 9-1-1 and asks him to get the airplane out of their yard.  The development and encroachment into formerly remote areas  as a result of the North emptying out into Florida is accounting for fewer searches.

[RiverAux]

Our sq CC says it has to do with a combination of the price of avgas going up and a reduced amount of general aviation flying

There has been a tiny decline in general aviation flight hours, but probably not enough to have any significant impact on CAP missions.  From the 2006 AOPA Nall Report, estimated GA flying in millions of hours:
2001: 25.4
2002: 25.5
2003: 25.7
2004: 24.9
2005: 23.1

The AFRCC numbers do not include disaster relief or counterdrug missions. 

Florida may be unique.  Most of the missing/overdue aircraft searches are solved by the Sheriff when somebody calls 9-1-1 and asks him to get the airplane out of their yard.

No, these sorts of accidents would never make it to the AFRCC in the first place.  For example, in 2005 there were over 1400 GA accidents, but only 107 actuall AFRCC missing airplane searches. 

the fact that the new technologies have eliminated a large number of false alarm ELT calls...which still probably show up on AFRCC boks as a mission even thoguh they were solved with a phone call.

Sorry, no evidence of this.  From 2001 to 2005 the AFRCC reports indicate that there were airplanes involved in about half of ELT searches and that the ratio of airplanes involved to total ELT missions has stayed pretty much the same.  Total flight hours related to ELT searches was 2299 in 1999 and 2459 in 2005 with the years in between pretty much in the 2500-3100 hour range.  So, again, we've been pretty stable.

Keep in mind that these are nationwide statistics and I wouldn't be surprised if there are ups and downs in various states due to all sorts of random factors. 

[JohnKachenmeister]

I think you missed my point, River.

A few years ago, a missng airplane in FL would be just that... missing.  It would go down in a swamp, and we would have to go look for it.

Now, a plane fallling out of the sky would not be missing for very long, since much of those swamp areas are now residential development.

In 2004 a plane making a unplanned flight termination at a point 1 mile west of US 1 and 7 miles south of the Rockledge city limits would be in an uninhabited swamp, and end up the target of an AFRCC/CAP search.

Today, if a plane made such a termination, the pilot could crawl from the wreckage and walk over to any number of people out at their pools and have a Margarita.

(Yes, today, Dec. 31st, 2006, we are out by the pool.  Sorry about you Northerners.  It is 83 degrees Fahrenheit right now.  I haven't made a pitcher of Margaritas yet, but if a plane crashed out there and missed my pool, I would make one to celebrate my good fortune, since my insurance rates are high enough after all the hurricanes! )

[RiverAux]

Sure, there probably are a few crashes that might have needed searches in the old days that would not today due to development in certain local areas.  However, on a nation wide basis that is probably balanced out by the fact that many rural areas have been losing population to those suburban areas. 

As most crashes happen near the start and end point of the flights, the crashes during those phases that may have resulted in searches in the past may have declined.  But the crashes during cruise may have a better chance of landing in a less population-dense area now than they might have before.  This would make an interesting topic for someone to do some serious research on. 

[JohnKachenmeister]

That's why I referenced Florida Cyclist's post that Florida may be unique with regard to a decline of number of missions over the last 5 years.

[RiverAux]

Here are the AFRCC reports for missions (flight hours) they assigned to FL Wing from 2001-2005.

2001:  391 (537)
2002:  412 (541)
2003:  401 (410)
2004:  352 (355)
2005:  324 (334)

Of course these are total missions not just missing airplanes and they do show a drop over this period.  But, we can assume this is a drop in ELT missions primarily.  Like I said, I don't have mission type data by state.   

[floridacyclist]

Another thing to wonder about is the decline in pleasure-boating and how that may have affected our numbers of missions since many of our missions involved EPIRBS.

[SJFedor]

As the person who commented on the decline in the number of missions in the Snack food for thought thread in regards to my idea for an ES Training ribbon, I based my comment on personal experience. In CO, we may have as many as ONE mission a year that involves more than a couple a/c and an IC. We have many that are handled from the IC's living room without any other incident support staff. These do not involve ground teams.

The maybe one mission per year that do involve more than a bare minimum of resources are dealt with using local gt's and support personnel (i.e. IC makes a few phone calls to the folks he knows), effectively preventing the majority of the members from particpating. So, tying back to the source of the comment, what is the incentive for the bulk of the members to maintain their skills?

Speaking of...

I just read on CNN.com that you guys up in CO are out flying looking for stranded motorists. I personally think that's an outstanding use of CAP resources, with all the nasty weather you guys have had out there lately.

[RiverAux]

Another thing to wonder about is the decline in pleasure-boating and how that may have affected our numbers of missions since many of our missions involved EPIRBS.

Stats are such wonderful things.  According to the USCG Boating Statistics Report for 2005 the number of registered boats in the US is at an all-time high of almost 13 million boats and is up almost 2 million from 1991.  A 2000 report that uses other stats besides boating registration also backs up the fact that boating participation has been increasing in the US over the last few decades. 

So, no decline in recreational boating.  

[floridacyclist]

Having a boat registered is no indication of use...we have a 25' sailboat that we have stopped using as much as we used to because of the cost of gas to drive the 100+ miles to where we keep it moored, and the fact that since joining DMAT we spend more weekends traveling in the opposite direction.

[arajca]

As the person who commented on the decline in the number of missions in the Snack food for thought thread in regards to my idea for an ES Training ribbon, I based my comment on personal experience. In CO, we may have as many as ONE mission a year that involves more than a couple a/c and an IC. We have many that are handled from the IC's living room without any other incident support staff. These do not involve ground teams.

The maybe one mission per year that do involve more than a bare minimum of resources are dealt with using local gt's and support personnel (i.e. IC makes a few phone calls to the folks he knows), effectively preventing the majority of the members from particpating. So, tying back to the source of the comment, what is the incentive for the bulk of the members to maintain their skills?

Speaking of...

I just read on CNN.com that you guys up in CO are out flying looking for stranded motorists. I personally think that's an outstanding use of CAP resources, with all the nasty weather you guys have had out there lately.

It's an aircraft only mission. No ground or support personnel called. The nasty weather only affected West Kansas Eastern CO. Those of us on the other side of the divide got a few inches, but nothing significant.

[RiverAux]

Did you miss my reference to the other report?  Factors Related to Recreational Boating Participation in the US (2000).  It has a paragraph citing about a dozen studies showing boating participation has been increasing in the US.

[floridacyclist]

Yes, I saw that. When I first re-joined CAP in 2002, we were averaging about a mission a week and folks were complaining about getting burnt. Whatever trend was up in 2000 is not really relevant to what I'm talking about the decline since 2002.

I don't think it's going to be tracked down to any single factor but rather a combination of things. One other thing the sq CC pointed out was that many of our previous ELT false alarms in our area were related to purely recreational flying, which has likely declined more than business-related GA.

[Psicorp]

(Yes, today, Dec. 31st, 2006, we are out by the pool.  Sorry about you Northerners.  It is 83 degrees Fahrenheit right now.  I haven't made a pitcher of Margaritas yet, but if a plane crashed out there and missed my pool, I would make one to celebrate my good fortune, since my insurance rates are high enough after all the hurricanes! )

I respectfully hate you now, Sir.

It's actually not too bad here, much better than this time last year when it was too cold to snow.

Happy New Year!

[bosshawk]

Eclipse: no, CD and border missions are not run through AFRCC: they are run through and approved by the NOC, with AFAM numbers.  I run perhaps 50 to 70 CD missions per year and I do the WMIRS thing for every one of them.

[floridacyclist]

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
 
Office of Public Affairs
U.S. Coast Guard

Press Release
Date: Dec. 8, 2006

Contact: Steve Blando

BOATERS MUST NOT OPERATE 121.5/243 MHZ EPIRBs AFTER 31 DECEMBER 2006

WASHINGTON - The Coast Guard reminds all boaters that beginning January 1, 2007, both 121.5 and 243 MHz Emergency Position Indicating Radio Beacons (EPIRBs) are prohibited from use in both commercial and recreational watercraft.  Boaters wishing to have an emergency rescue beacon aboard their vessel must have a digital 406 MHz model.

The January 1, 2007, date to stop using 121.5 MHz EPIRBs is in preparation for February 1, 2009, when satellite processing of distress signals from all 121.5/243 MHz beacons will terminate.  Following this termination date, only the 406 MHz beacons will be detected by the International Cospas-Sarsat Satellite System which provides distress alert and location data for search and rescue operations around the world.

The regulation applies to all Class A, B, and S 121.5/243 MHz EPIRBs.  It does not affect 121.5/243 MHz man overboard devices which are designed to work directly with a base alerting unit only and not with the satellite system.

This change, in large part, was brought about by the unreliability of the 121.5/243 MHz beacons in an emergency situation.  Data reveals that with a 121.5 MHz beacon, only one alert out of every 50 is a genuine distress situation. This has a significant effect on expending the limited resources of search and rescue personnel and platforms. With 406 MHz beacons, false alerts have been reduced significantly, and, when properly registered, can usually be resolved with a telephone call to the beacon owner.  Consequently, real alerts can receive the attention they deserve.

When a 406 MHz beacon signal is received, search and rescue personnel can retrieve information from a registration database. This includes the beacon owner's contact information, emergency contact information, and vessel/aircraft identifying characteristics. Having this information allows the Coast Guard, or other rescue personnel, to respond appropriately.

In the U.S., users are required by law to directly register their beacon in the U.S. 406 MHz Beacon Registration Database at:  http://www.beaconregistration.noaa.gov/ or by calling 1-888-212-SAVE. Other users can register their beacon in their country's national beacon registration database or, if no national database is available, in the International Beacon Registration Database at https://www.406registration.com/.

The United States Coast Guard is the lead agency for coordinating national maritime search and rescue policy and is responsible for providing search and rescue services on, under and over assigned international waters and waters subject to United States jurisdiction.

[Dragoon]

We've been hearing for at least a decade how SAR was going to dry up with the new ELTs.  So far, it seems that's not been the case.  Of course, once they shut off the satellites, things will change.

There have been a couple of very good points in this thread.

To begin with, if you don't have a certain level of activity, people's skills diminish.  Best if some large percentage of that activity be actual missions.  Use it or lose it.  If there IS a drop in missions, unless we get more training dollars to do more practice missions, we're gonna get rusty.

Also, as part of the country get more urbanized, there is less SAR going on there.  After all, it's hard to get lost when there's a McDonalds every 5 miles across your state!

I recall some briefer projecting the future of ES by pointing out that this urbanization will lead to less SAR, but more DR.  Because storms have a higher probability of hitting a population center the bigger the population.   He was suggesting that CAPs future lay in better DR response.  Which, I know is sort of a FEMA/Army thing.  But he may have been on to something. 

[DNall]

Also, as part of the country get more urbanized, there is less SAR going on there.  After all, it's hard to get lost when there's a McDonalds every 5 miles across your state!

I recall some briefer projecting the future of ES by pointing out that this urbanization will lead to less SAR, but more DR.  Because storms have a higher probability of hitting a population center the bigger the population.   He was suggesting that CAPs future lay in better DR response.  Which, I know is sort of a FEMA/Army thing.  But he may have been on to something. 

I don't know if I'd go that far thinking about urbanization. There's still a whole lot of space to get lost in. It's not as if the whole country is getting paved over, despite what it seems like in my town most of the time. Plus I've seen some real world missions where targets were located after a significant search very close to civiliazation.

I think the big deal is 406 is great for the CG & anyone wanting to be rescued. The problem is CAP has devolved a whole long time ago now to strictly a search asset. When they get hits in the future w/ more accurate GPS & no answer on the owner, they'll call the state & put LE/Fire right on top of them. Some, but not a lot of use for CAP in those conditions.

DR we've done forever & there's a bigger role for us there as demonstrated in places like Florida. However, as you say that's primarily an Army & FEMA directed thing, to a lesser degree (as far as the scale we're useful on) a state thing. AF does play a role, and an important one. We can help with that in a unique way that no one else has - what Florida does was taken over from a special forces detachment but we can do it w/ combined organic air, massive comms capabilites, & tied into a bigger resource network at 1AF. That's a good thing to work toward, but we need to keep in mind the frequency & distribution of disasters isn't something that's going to widely impact all of CAP.

Homeland Defense is a real nice one, but it's going to be almost all air based. I can't envision an ground team role. Picking up the slack there is where we try to come in w/ changed skill sets for the augmentation & force multiplier type things (cyber is the one thing mentioned so far that'd be big but low impact to many of us).

I don't know we'll see how it goes. There's a lot of smart people on both sides of the fence that I think can help us evolve & change to wherever we need to get. I'm optomistic.

[RiverAux]

I'm not as confident in the numbers I presented from the AFRCC reports as I was when I posted them.  There seems to be some situations where CAP Wings are given credit for more missions than there actually were for that state, other situations where the 2004 report gives the exact same info as was given in 2003, and at least one case where an absurd number of ELT missions were credited to one state which is far beyond typical. 

And though the AFRCC numbers aren't out yet it does appear that overall mission numbers are down in my area, perhaps only half or less of "typical".