Mission Decline

[RiverAux]

A poster on another thread recently stated that there has been a decline in the number of CAP missions.  Unfortunately, the CAP annual reports that I have over the last 6 years are too inconsistent to get good numbers for all years, but it looks like 2500-3000 has been about normal.

Given the weakness in our own reports, lets look at the AFRCC reports.  Here are their mission totals:
1994: 2825
1995: 2815
1996: 2734
1997: 2699
1998: 2851
1999: 2719
2000: 2739
2001: 2814
2002: 2989
2003: 2937
2004: 2734
2005: 2441

Now, I certainly wouldn't say that this is much of a decline.  In fact, this is a remarkably stable number of missions.  For 2001 onward I could try to dig through the data to figure out how many are CAP missions, but its going to be just about as high a percentage as we usually advertise (85-95%). 

What about missing airplane searches, our bread and butter.  I don't have the data for them going back as far, but this is what I have and it also seems fairly stable.  Year: Missions (Saves/Assists) 

1999: 86    (3/0)     
2001: 129  (21/5)
2002: 113  (11/13)
2003: 118  (14/4)
2004: 107  (15/0)
2005: 107  (9/1)

Now, I've always thought missing persons was an activity CAP isn't used enough in.  What do those stats look like for mission numbers and (saves/assists)?  Again, generally stable. 

1999: 185  (33/40)
2001: 123  (48/48)
2002: 149  (55/35)
2003: 122  (75/27)
2004: 122  (50/25)
2005: 150  (49/37)

[arajca]

How many of those missions involve more than one or two a/c and an IC?

[RiverAux]

They aren't detailed enough to say anything about that.  I didn't break out the ELT missions but as you would expect they account for the vast majority of the missions and most of them are handled as you say. 

Just to be clear, the total missions, missing airplane missions, and missing person missions are AFRCC totals and do not represent CAP missions specifically.  I can tell you how many are CAP missions (if I want to add it up by hand), but I can't tell you how many CAP missing airplane searches, missing person searches, etc. there were.  They don't break the mission types out by agency. 

[Psicorp]

What I'd be curious to see is whether the reduced number of calls from the AFRCC matches a decline in NTSB investigations. In other words, are we getting called less or is general aviation getting safer overall?

[floridacyclist]

Or are most ELT searches these days being closed by calling the pilot/boatowner and telling him that his beeper is beeping?

[Eclipse]

How many of those missions involve more than one or two a/c and an IC?

What's your point?  A mission is a mission.

I wonder how the Katrina and Challenger missions were handled? Was that just a single mission, or broken out. 

Those who participated got more sorties in a week than some members get in a career.

In ILWG, if anything, the numbers are up.  And I would think the "average" annual ELT's, etc., plus one major, multi-state deployment, are about all CAP could handle in a given year.

What about CN and that border stuff?  Do those go through AFRCC?

Who's saying are numbers are dropping?

[floridacyclist]

I know ours have dropped; ee get a mission maybe every few months now. Makes it difficult to keep interest up among those who are not far-sighted enough to realize that the way to keep the ES flame burning is through more training exercises.

Our sq CC says it has to do with a combination of the price of avgas going up and a reduced amount of general aviation flying (since we rarely get called to look for airliners) and the fact that the new technologies have eliminated a large number of false alarm ELT calls...which still probably show up on AFRCC boks as a mission even thoguh they were solved with a phone call.

[arajca]

As the person who commented on the decline in the number of missions in the Snack food for thought thread in regards to my idea for an ES Training ribbon, I based my comment on personal experience. In CO, we may have as many as ONE mission a year that involves more than a couple a/c and an IC. We have many that are handled from the IC's living room without any other incident support staff. These do not involve ground teams.

The maybe one mission per year that do involve more than a bare minimum of resources are dealt with using local gt's and support personnel (i.e. IC makes a few phone calls to the folks he knows), effectively preventing the majority of the members from particpating. So, tying back to the source of the comment, what is the incentive for the bulk of the members to maintain their skills?

[JohnKachenmeister]

Florida may be unique.  Most of the missing/overdue aircraft searches are solved by the Sheriff when somebody calls 9-1-1 and asks him to get the airplane out of their yard.  The development and encroachment into formerly remote areas  as a result of the North emptying out into Florida is accounting for fewer searches.

[RiverAux]

Our sq CC says it has to do with a combination of the price of avgas going up and a reduced amount of general aviation flying

There has been a tiny decline in general aviation flight hours, but probably not enough to have any significant impact on CAP missions.  From the 2006 AOPA Nall Report, estimated GA flying in millions of hours:
2001: 25.4
2002: 25.5
2003: 25.7
2004: 24.9
2005: 23.1

The AFRCC numbers do not include disaster relief or counterdrug missions. 

Florida may be unique.  Most of the missing/overdue aircraft searches are solved by the Sheriff when somebody calls 9-1-1 and asks him to get the airplane out of their yard.

No, these sorts of accidents would never make it to the AFRCC in the first place.  For example, in 2005 there were over 1400 GA accidents, but only 107 actuall AFRCC missing airplane searches. 

the fact that the new technologies have eliminated a large number of false alarm ELT calls...which still probably show up on AFRCC boks as a mission even thoguh they were solved with a phone call.

Sorry, no evidence of this.  From 2001 to 2005 the AFRCC reports indicate that there were airplanes involved in about half of ELT searches and that the ratio of airplanes involved to total ELT missions has stayed pretty much the same.  Total flight hours related to ELT searches was 2299 in 1999 and 2459 in 2005 with the years in between pretty much in the 2500-3100 hour range.  So, again, we've been pretty stable.

Keep in mind that these are nationwide statistics and I wouldn't be surprised if there are ups and downs in various states due to all sorts of random factors. 

[JohnKachenmeister]

I think you missed my point, River.

A few years ago, a missng airplane in FL would be just that... missing.  It would go down in a swamp, and we would have to go look for it.

Now, a plane fallling out of the sky would not be missing for very long, since much of those swamp areas are now residential development.

In 2004 a plane making a unplanned flight termination at a point 1 mile west of US 1 and 7 miles south of the Rockledge city limits would be in an uninhabited swamp, and end up the target of an AFRCC/CAP search.

Today, if a plane made such a termination, the pilot could crawl from the wreckage and walk over to any number of people out at their pools and have a Margarita.

(Yes, today, Dec. 31st, 2006, we are out by the pool.  Sorry about you Northerners.  It is 83 degrees Fahrenheit right now.  I haven't made a pitcher of Margaritas yet, but if a plane crashed out there and missed my pool, I would make one to celebrate my good fortune, since my insurance rates are high enough after all the hurricanes! )

[RiverAux]

Sure, there probably are a few crashes that might have needed searches in the old days that would not today due to development in certain local areas.  However, on a nation wide basis that is probably balanced out by the fact that many rural areas have been losing population to those suburban areas. 

As most crashes happen near the start and end point of the flights, the crashes during those phases that may have resulted in searches in the past may have declined.  But the crashes during cruise may have a better chance of landing in a less population-dense area now than they might have before.  This would make an interesting topic for someone to do some serious research on. 

[JohnKachenmeister]

That's why I referenced Florida Cyclist's post that Florida may be unique with regard to a decline of number of missions over the last 5 years.

[RiverAux]

Here are the AFRCC reports for missions (flight hours) they assigned to FL Wing from 2001-2005.

2001:  391 (537)
2002:  412 (541)
2003:  401 (410)
2004:  352 (355)
2005:  324 (334)

Of course these are total missions not just missing airplanes and they do show a drop over this period.  But, we can assume this is a drop in ELT missions primarily.  Like I said, I don't have mission type data by state.   

[floridacyclist]

Another thing to wonder about is the decline in pleasure-boating and how that may have affected our numbers of missions since many of our missions involved EPIRBS.

[SJFedor]

As the person who commented on the decline in the number of missions in the Snack food for thought thread in regards to my idea for an ES Training ribbon, I based my comment on personal experience. In CO, we may have as many as ONE mission a year that involves more than a couple a/c and an IC. We have many that are handled from the IC's living room without any other incident support staff. These do not involve ground teams.

The maybe one mission per year that do involve more than a bare minimum of resources are dealt with using local gt's and support personnel (i.e. IC makes a few phone calls to the folks he knows), effectively preventing the majority of the members from particpating. So, tying back to the source of the comment, what is the incentive for the bulk of the members to maintain their skills?

Speaking of...

I just read on CNN.com that you guys up in CO are out flying looking for stranded motorists. I personally think that's an outstanding use of CAP resources, with all the nasty weather you guys have had out there lately.

[RiverAux]

Another thing to wonder about is the decline in pleasure-boating and how that may have affected our numbers of missions since many of our missions involved EPIRBS.

Stats are such wonderful things.  According to the USCG Boating Statistics Report for 2005 the number of registered boats in the US is at an all-time high of almost 13 million boats and is up almost 2 million from 1991.  A 2000 report that uses other stats besides boating registration also backs up the fact that boating participation has been increasing in the US over the last few decades. 

So, no decline in recreational boating.  

[floridacyclist]

Having a boat registered is no indication of use...we have a 25' sailboat that we have stopped using as much as we used to because of the cost of gas to drive the 100+ miles to where we keep it moored, and the fact that since joining DMAT we spend more weekends traveling in the opposite direction.

[arajca]

As the person who commented on the decline in the number of missions in the Snack food for thought thread in regards to my idea for an ES Training ribbon, I based my comment on personal experience. In CO, we may have as many as ONE mission a year that involves more than a couple a/c and an IC. We have many that are handled from the IC's living room without any other incident support staff. These do not involve ground teams.

The maybe one mission per year that do involve more than a bare minimum of resources are dealt with using local gt's and support personnel (i.e. IC makes a few phone calls to the folks he knows), effectively preventing the majority of the members from particpating. So, tying back to the source of the comment, what is the incentive for the bulk of the members to maintain their skills?

Speaking of...

I just read on CNN.com that you guys up in CO are out flying looking for stranded motorists. I personally think that's an outstanding use of CAP resources, with all the nasty weather you guys have had out there lately.

It's an aircraft only mission. No ground or support personnel called. The nasty weather only affected West Kansas Eastern CO. Those of us on the other side of the divide got a few inches, but nothing significant.

[RiverAux]

Did you miss my reference to the other report?  Factors Related to Recreational Boating Participation in the US (2000).  It has a paragraph citing about a dozen studies showing boating participation has been increasing in the US.