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Covid Demobilization - Jan 2022

Started by Eclipse, January 11, 2022, 04:58:42 PM

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Eclipse


"That Others May Zoom"

jeders

Texas will be going from Phase 3 to Phase 1 effective 14 Jan.

I don't know when Oklahoma's effective date is, but according to the region commander, all of SWR is or will shortly be in Phase 1.
If you are confident in you abilities and experience, whether someone else is impressed is irrelevant. - Eclipse

TheSkyHornet

Quote from: jeders on January 11, 2022, 05:50:54 PMTexas will be going from Phase 3 to Phase 1 effective 14 Jan.

I don't grasp this concept at all.

If it's a safety/health emergency, why wait?

Spam

Yeah, that doesn't seem to make sense to me either on the face of it, but we sent our package in to NHQ for concurrence with an anticipated date of effectivity a few days out. It also allows local units to not be caught off guard or be in hack for having some event not in immediate compliance. But admittedly I grant the point.

On a positive note, Texas had better hurry or they'll miss the party. Here in GA, our numbers have apparently passed their peak (7 day moving average is dropping FAST, as fast as it went up), which mirrors the reports from the UK and elsewhere. Secondly, despite the spike in cases, our local death rates involving the virus have continued to drop steadily and quickly with no apparent correlation to current cases, and are now as low as last summer, with the trend headed toward pre-pandemic levels. Our schools are also fully open and are relaxing standards/discontinuing contact tracing for example, and the economy is pretty healthy here which reduces secondary impacts (mental health etc.). This experience may not be the case for other states, where Delta still circulates alongside Omicron, where population demographics differ (age profiles, etc.) or other factors are in play. But it is encouraging locally here.

As I'd discussed with our covid team and our Commander, this is food for thought regarding planning ahead for discontinuation of CAP measures, and returning to allowing members to make personal ORM based choices. I am pressing on with plans for my practice mission later this month, which we can execute with current precautions, regardless, but I think we'll be opening back up soon.

R/s
Spam

PS, of course, the Aleutians do look like a nice safe place. Hey - lets all move there!  LOL

Eclipse

Quote from: Eclipse on January 11, 2022, 04:58:42 PMAs of 01/11/2022

Phase 1 - 40
Phase 2 - 8
Phase 3 - 4
Source: https://www.gocivilairpatrol.com/covid-19-remobilization

As of 01/12/2022
Phase 1 - 43
Phase 2 - 6
Phase 3 - 3

No appreciable change in the maps.

"That Others May Zoom"

Eclipse

Quote from: Eclipse on January 12, 2022, 03:52:34 PM
Quote from: Eclipse on January 11, 2022, 04:58:42 PMAs of 01/11/2022

Phase 1 - 40
Phase 2 - 8
Phase 3 - 4
Source: https://www.gocivilairpatrol.com/covid-19-remobilization

As of 01/12/2022
Phase 1 - 43
Phase 2 - 6
Phase 3 - 3

No appreciable change in the maps.

As of 01/13/2022
Phase 1 - 46
Phase 2 - 5
Phase 3 - 1





https://www.covidactnow.org/?s=28041695

Per the AP:
"BOISE, Idaho (AP) — Idaho's coronavirus cases are increasing faster than the state can track them, causing a lag in case counts that some public health leaders fear could lull residences into a false sense of security."

https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-lifestyle-health-public-health-idaho-96b67c8d8c5c733aa68b1fe3fa8408e0

"That Others May Zoom"

TheSkyHornet

Quote from: Eclipse on January 13, 2022, 07:35:46 PMPer the AP:
"BOISE, Idaho (AP) — Idaho's coronavirus cases are increasing faster than the state can track them, causing a lag in case counts that some public health leaders fear could lull residences into a false sense of security."

https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-lifestyle-health-public-health-idaho-96b67c8d8c5c733aa68b1fe3fa8408e0

Idaho also has some state laws in respect to the reporting of patient health information and vaccination status for those over 18 only. Individuals over the age of 14 can consent to receive health treatment, including a vaccination, but that consent does not include sharing that health data. They also have further exemptions for a doctor to declare a minor at any age as "mature" following consultation. So the data is extremely inaccurate and lagging from a CDC reporting standpoint.




Eclipse

Today's map with Maine moving to the severest risk level.



No changes to CAP demobilization numbers.

"That Others May Zoom"

TheSkyHornet

Rumor has it that we're moving to a new Remobilization Phase system.

Any truth?
Anyone know anything?

Eclipse

Quote from: Eclipse on January 13, 2022, 07:35:46 PM
Quote from: Eclipse on January 12, 2022, 03:52:34 PM
Quote from: Eclipse on January 11, 2022, 04:58:42 PMAs of 01/11/2022

Phase 1 - 40
Phase 2 - 8
Phase 3 - 4
Source: https://www.gocivilairpatrol.com/covid-19-remobilization

As of 01/12/2022
Phase 1 - 43
Phase 2 - 6
Phase 3 - 3

No appreciable change in the maps.

As of 01/13/2022
Phase 1 - 46
Phase 2 - 5
Phase 3 - 1

As of 01/15/2022
Phase 1 - 47
Phase 2 - 5
Phase 3 - 0

HIWG still showing the "by unit" note.

No appreciable changes in the maps.

"That Others May Zoom"

NovemberWhiskey

I'm a little surprised that IDWG only went back to phase 2: the deputy state immunologist, Kathryn Turner, said positive test rates were so high that the public health districts were unable to keep up with reporting and that the real case rate was likely around 135/100K.

https://www.kivitv.com/news/idaho-faces-backlog-in-processing-positive-covid-19-cases

Eclipse

As of 01/16/2022
Phase 1 - 49
Phase 2 - 3
Phase 3 - 0

HIWG still showing the "by unit" note.

No appreciable changes in the maps.

"That Others May Zoom"

JohhnyD

Quote from: TheSkyHornet on January 14, 2022, 02:55:12 PM
Quote from: Eclipse on January 13, 2022, 07:35:46 PMPer the AP:
"BOISE, Idaho (AP) — Idaho's coronavirus cases are increasing faster than the state can track them, causing a lag in case counts that some public health leaders fear could lull residences into a false sense of security."

https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-lifestyle-health-public-health-idaho-96b67c8d8c5c733aa68b1fe3fa8408e0

Idaho also has some state laws in respect to the reporting of patient health information and vaccination status for those over 18 only. Individuals over the age of 14 can consent to receive health treatment, including a vaccination, but that consent does not include sharing that health data. They also have further exemptions for a doctor to declare a minor at any age as "mature" following consultation. So the data is extremely inaccurate and lagging from a CDC reporting standpoint.




And yet hospitalization rates are not changing much and death rates dropping in Idaho. Fear not science drives this, and yes, politics and money.

TheSkyHornet

Quote from: TheSkyHornet on January 14, 2022, 07:04:37 PMRumor has it that we're moving to a new Remobilization Phase system.

Any truth?
Anyone know anything?


Eclipse

#14
Quote from: JohhnyD on January 17, 2022, 01:13:36 AMAnd yet hospitalization rates are not changing much and death rates dropping in Idaho

Based on what data, exactly?

Even the IDHW admits it's moving too fast to track.

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/idaho.division.of.public.health/viz/DPHIdahoCOVID-19Dashboard/Home

However every indicator listed is on an upward trend like a Blue Origin rocket...right up
until the point where the state stops reporting due to an increase in infections.

https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/coronavirus/article257230707.html

01/13/2022
"Cases are surging, the positivity rate has doubled and hundreds of health care workers are out sick. The coronavirus omicron wave that has beset the nation has arrived in Idaho in full force, and public health officials are worried about how the system will stay afloat."

"That Others May Zoom"

Eclipse

As of 01/17/2022
Phase 1 - 50
Phase 2 - 2
Phase 3 - 0

HIWG still showing the "by unit" note.

No appreciable changes in the maps.

"That Others May Zoom"

JohhnyD

Quote from: Eclipse on January 17, 2022, 04:32:52 PMBased on what data, exactly?
The local hospital, until today, has reported China Virus cases. Peaked a few months ago at over 130, since then trended down to 50 - 60, with fewer than a dozen in ICA and IIRC no deaths this year. Cases skyrocketing, hospital cases not at all. NOT AT ALL.

Again, Q.E.D.

Pace

Enough. If you want to rant about COVID and mandates, go to reddit. This will leave CAPTalk starting now. We are not a medical organization. We do not set medical recommendations.

NHQ is following recommendations and requirements from outside of the organization.

Mandates and status updates are certainly welcome to help spread the word. That's it.
Lt Col, CAP

TheSkyHornet

Quote from: TheSkyHornet on January 17, 2022, 03:49:03 PM
Quote from: TheSkyHornet on January 14, 2022, 07:04:37 PMRumor has it that we're moving to a new Remobilization Phase system.

Any truth?
Anyone know anything?





But seriously...does anyone actually know anything about CAP changing the Remob system?

Luis R. Ramos

#19
Why go to Reddit "if anyone wants to rant" against or for something seen on these boards? Why expect members go to yet another different website or board? The goal should be to seek to lessen the technological burden on members, not increase it! But I expect this post will be deleted now.
Squadron Safety Officer
Squadron Communication Officer
Squadron Emergency Services Officer

Eclipse

As of 01/18/2022
Phase 1 - 52
Phase 2 - 0
Phase 3 - 0

HIWG still showing the "by unit" note.

No appreciable changes in the maps.

"That Others May Zoom"

Shuman 14

Quote from: Pace on January 18, 2022, 01:21:35 PMWe are not a medical organization. We do not set medical recommendations.

Then why do we award Physician, Nurse, Health Services Officer and EMT Badges? Just Saying. ;-P
Joseph J. Clune
Lieutenant Colonel, Military Police

USMCR: 1990 - 1992                           USAR: 1993 - 1998, 2000 - 2003, 2005 - Present     CAP: 2013 - 2014, 2021 - Present
INARNG: 1992 - 1993, 1998 - 2000      Active Army: 2003 - 2005                                       USCGAux: 2004 - Present

N6RVT

Quote from: Shuman 14 on January 18, 2022, 08:09:09 PM
Quote from: Pace on January 18, 2022, 01:21:35 PMWe are not a medical organization. We do not set medical recommendations.
Then why do we award Physician, Nurse, Health Services Officer and EMT Badges? Just Saying. ;-P

Same way we award legal and Chaplain badges.  CAP does not provide the training, but we recognize the skill someone already has.

TheSkyHornet

Quote from: Dwight Dutton on January 18, 2022, 08:19:27 PM
Quote from: Shuman 14 on January 18, 2022, 08:09:09 PM
Quote from: Pace on January 18, 2022, 01:21:35 PMWe are not a medical organization. We do not set medical recommendations.
Then why do we award Physician, Nurse, Health Services Officer and EMT Badges? Just Saying. ;-P

Same way we award legal and Chaplain badges.  CAP does not provide the training, but we recognize the skill someone already has.

Except we do directly employ them in related career/skill-based roles.

And while we don't dictate national medical policy, we do address the administration of health/welfare programs, to include the demobilization of operations and restrictions on activities in the preservation of health of members.


N6RVT

Quote from: TheSkyHornet on January 18, 2022, 08:32:14 PM
Quote from: Dwight Dutton on January 18, 2022, 08:19:27 PM
Quote from: Shuman 14 on January 18, 2022, 08:09:09 PM
Quote from: Pace on January 18, 2022, 01:21:35 PMWe are not a medical organization. We do not set medical recommendations.
Then why do we award Physician, Nurse, Health Services Officer and EMT Badges? Just Saying. ;-P

Same way we award legal and Chaplain badges.  CAP does not provide the training, but we recognize the skill someone already has.

Except we do directly employ them in related career/skill-based roles.

Except what?  I said we didn't train them, not that we don't use them.  Our wing commander is an Attorney.  I'm sure those skills get used a lot in that position.

TheSkyHornet

Quote from: Dwight Dutton on January 19, 2022, 03:13:34 PM
Quote from: TheSkyHornet on January 18, 2022, 08:32:14 PM
Quote from: Dwight Dutton on January 18, 2022, 08:19:27 PM
Quote from: Shuman 14 on January 18, 2022, 08:09:09 PM
Quote from: Pace on January 18, 2022, 01:21:35 PMWe are not a medical organization. We do not set medical recommendations.
Then why do we award Physician, Nurse, Health Services Officer and EMT Badges? Just Saying. ;-P

Same way we award legal and Chaplain badges.  CAP does not provide the training, but we recognize the skill someone already has.

Except we do directly employ them in related career/skill-based roles.

Except what?  I said we didn't train them, not that we don't use them.  Our wing commander is an Attorney.  I'm sure those skills get used a lot in that position.

Entirely fair.

PHall

Quote from: Dwight Dutton on January 19, 2022, 03:13:34 PM
Quote from: TheSkyHornet on January 18, 2022, 08:32:14 PM
Quote from: Dwight Dutton on January 18, 2022, 08:19:27 PM
Quote from: Shuman 14 on January 18, 2022, 08:09:09 PM
Quote from: Pace on January 18, 2022, 01:21:35 PMWe are not a medical organization. We do not set medical recommendations.
Then why do we award Physician, Nurse, Health Services Officer and EMT Badges? Just Saying. ;-P

Same way we award legal and Chaplain badges.  CAP does not provide the training, but we recognize the skill someone already has.

Except we do directly employ them in related career/skill-based roles.

Except what?  I said we didn't train them, not that we don't use them.  Our wing commander is an Attorney.  I'm sure those skills get used a lot in that position.


If he decides to use them for CAP. There are many members who are practicing attorneys who don't.

N6RVT

Quote from: PHall on January 19, 2022, 04:46:07 PMIf he decides to use them for CAP. There are many members who are practicing attorneys who don't.
I don't think he actively does, but he does wear the badge for it.  Can't help but have a positive effect n how he makes decisions at that level.

PHall

Quote from: Dwight Dutton on January 19, 2022, 07:44:48 PM
Quote from: PHall on January 19, 2022, 04:46:07 PMIf he decides to use them for CAP. There are many members who are practicing attorneys who don't.
I don't think he actively does, but he does wear the badge for it.  Can't help but have a positive effect n how he makes decisions at that level.

He's the Assistant Legal Officer for Pacific Region too.

Eclipse

Quote from: PHall on January 19, 2022, 08:56:17 PMHe's the Assistant Legal Officer for Pacific Region too.

So...he's the legal counsel to his direct superior?

That seems..."Congressional"...

Looks like a few things have changed since I last bothered to open 111-1.
I seem to recall that at one point, Legal Officers could not be appointed below wing,
and that sitting Commanders could not be Legal Officers, but I don't see either in the
current (2013) version.

"That Others May Zoom"

NovemberWhiskey

The restriction I think you're thinking of is in CAPR 30-1 at para 6.3:

"Commanders who are attorneys will not appoint themselves as a legal officer in their command."



TheSkyHornet

Quote from: Eclipse on January 19, 2022, 09:08:38 PM
Quote from: PHall on January 19, 2022, 08:56:17 PMHe's the Assistant Legal Officer for Pacific Region too.

So...he's the legal counsel to his direct superior?

That seems..."Congressional"...

Literally the Ayatollah of Civil Air Patrol

PHall

Quote from: TheSkyHornet on January 20, 2022, 03:44:37 PM
Quote from: Eclipse on January 19, 2022, 09:08:38 PM
Quote from: PHall on January 19, 2022, 08:56:17 PMHe's the Assistant Legal Officer for Pacific Region too.

So...he's the legal counsel to his direct superior?

That seems..."Congressional"...

Literally the Ayatollah of Civil Air Patrol


Well, it's not like it's a secret. It published on the PACR PA-1 and is on the PACR webpage.
You would figure that if anybody had a problem with it they would have said something by now.

TheSkyHornet

So...does anyone know anything about the Remobilization changes?


Last update I heard was that the Phase 1-2-3 system is going away entirely.

NovemberWhiskey

I assume we'll know when NHQ wants us to know? I'm curious but it doesn't seem to serve the membership to grind the rumor mill on this topic.

heliodoc

There's probably still good reason CAP is still known  as Confusion Among People and for very good and obvious reasons....

Jester

Quote from: NovemberWhiskey on January 24, 2022, 02:29:24 PMI assume we'll know when NHQ wants us to know? I'm curious but it doesn't seem to serve the membership to grind the rumor mill on this topic.


So I would argue NHQ probably shouldn't let the rumor mill grind.  But that's addressing concerns of the membership and we don't do that here.

Keep paying your dues and do your safety training!

dwb

Quote from: Jester on January 24, 2022, 08:07:55 PMSo I would argue NHQ probably shouldn't let the rumor mill grind.  But that's addressing concerns of the membership and we don't do that here.

This is a no-win situation for CAP. If they're actively working on new rules but are not ready to report on those deliberations, they can either:

1. say nothing until they have something to say, in which case people take to the internet to complain, or
2. send an email out every week to say they have nothing to report, in which case people would complain about pointless spam

Exactly how frequently should CAP update its 56,385 members (as of 31 Dec 2021) to tell them they aren't ready to provide updates yet?

Eclipse

While NHQ is evolving the deremobilization http://captalk.net/index.php?topic=25809.0
it's clear that this is far from "over".

As of today, all Wings are still in Phase 1, with HIWG still showing the "by unit" note.
https://www.gocivilairpatrol.com/covid-19-remobilization
The most recent phase reversions were only ~2 weeks ago, so one could certainly
suppose that the current situation(s) stands at least into March, unless the below
changes significantly.

Maps have been showing some reduction in risk, primarily in NE states, and
some populous counties with high vaccine rates are also showing lowering risk numbers.
https://covidactnow.org/?s=28761752

Interestingly, despite no appreciable change in risk, some cities, including San Francisco,
are reducing their mask mandates for those who are vaccinated, which should have a positive
effect on CAP activities in those areas. As Colorado inches back to L4, number of cities are
dropping mask mandates altogether, and news reports are indicating lots of other cities and
states are considering the same actions.





Idaho is still not reporting, and news reports show that positivity rates are still increasing:
https://www.ktvb.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/record-breaking-covid-19-case-rates-southern-idaho/277-080bedd8-9992-4640-b3d0-398644e310c1



"This disease is spreading at a rate faster than we've ever seen before."


"That Others May Zoom"

jeders

Quote from: Eclipse on February 02, 2022, 07:27:14 PMThe most recent phase reversions were only ~2 weeks ago, so one could certainly suppose that the current situation(s) stands at least into March, unless the below changes significantly.

Based on the available data from CAN for Texas, best guesstimate from multiple individuals seems to be back in Phase 2 by the end of February as case rates are falling just as fast as they went up and infection rates are already below the required levels. That being said, when it comes to large groups of people, all bets are off.
If you are confident in you abilities and experience, whether someone else is impressed is irrelevant. - Eclipse

NovemberWhiskey

Quote from: jeders on February 02, 2022, 09:28:02 PMfalling just as fast as they went up and infection rates are already below the required levels
Those are really saying the same thing :)

It does look like MD is already ready to advance to Phase II, from the purely numerical perspective, with CT/NY/NJ not too far behind. Fingers crossed!


Eclipse





The maps are starting to gain their color back...

"That Others May Zoom"

Garibaldi

Quote from: Eclipse on February 07, 2022, 03:26:25 PM



The maps are starting to gain their color back...

Flash forward six months and we're back to phase 2.5...
Still a major after all these years.
ES dude, leadership ossifer, publik affaires
Opinionated and wrong 99% of the time about all things

Garibaldi

Quote from: heliodoc on January 24, 2022, 07:07:49 PMThere's probably still good reason CAP is still known  as Confusion Among People and for very good and obvious reasons....

I was always told it was either Crazy A(ir) Pilots, Come and Pay or Crazy A** People.

If I subverted the swear filter I apologize
Still a major after all these years.
ES dude, leadership ossifer, publik affaires
Opinionated and wrong 99% of the time about all things

Luis R. Ramos

Thank you for those two! I will add them to my repertoire.

Cadets Always Pay
Come And Pay
Commanders Always Pay
Cash And Plastic
Squadron Safety Officer
Squadron Communication Officer
Squadron Emergency Services Officer

Eclipse


"That Others May Zoom"