Quote from: Dwight Dutton on January 04, 2022, 09:37:03 PM

Quote from: Eclipse on January 04, 2022, 08:02:05 PMNeither of the above explains the bump in cadets during that same time frame, though clearly whomever was joining did not engage enough to "stick", which may have been the result of improper expectations.

I would very much like to know what percent of members renew even the first time.  I strongly suspect that number may be as low as 20%, considering how many new member boards I do for a unit who's total membership never seems to change.

I just got the December numbers. Nationally, senior retention was at 74.6% in December. I can tell you from experience without looking at the numbers specifically that senior retention has held steady around that rate for a good long time.  Sometimes its in the 73s, sometimes its in the 75s... Even with COVID it hasn't varied much as far as I've noticed.  (I have a little project to put the last two years of data into my spreadsheet.. I've been ... slacking)

I suspect, but without the data specifically right in front of me, that part of our member loss is that ~25% attrition but without the new members coming in.

Cadet first term retention was 32.55%, which is a little low (usually around 35, sometimes as high as 40%) and subsequent term retention was 59.3% which again is a bit low.

I really need to get the recruiting and retention numbers that I've missed into my spreadsheet and see how our "new member starts" has graphed out. Since I'm not the Recruiting Manager anymore, I have "fallen off the wagon" doing this. Maj Moore may have picked up that standard, and I know for a fact he has other indicators he's been tracking that are a VERY interesting cut at measuring engagement.

Quote from: NINWell, there is a graphic that Maj Moore and I joke around about where it shows him taking over from me as the National Recruiting and Retention Manager right about the time where everything goes to heck....

Man... I thought we weren't going to show this to anyone?!?      



Okay, let's look at retention for the past two years:

Cadet 1st year retention in Blue, multi-year cadets in Yellow, and seniors in Orange.

Retention rates for the past two years show some recognizable trends. 




The pandemic had a pretty similar impact on retention for all groups, but what's really interesting is the significant increase in 1st year cadets beginning in the spring of 2021.  These first year renewals are cadets who joined DURING the pandemic and who, after struggling through "virtual CAP", started to see the "Real CAP" with easing of restrictions and reopening.  A similar, but delayed, curve can be seen for seniors and multi-year cadets.

Generally speaking, senior member retention has actually been very consistent.  Even long-term, less-than-active members (the kind who haven't darkened a squadron's doorstep in years) keep writing that annual dues payment check because a) they believe and support CAP and b) they are among the few people in the world who still write checks.

The cadets on the other hand, is where the challenge has been greatest.  That's because cadets are a constantly diminishing resource... they grow up, graduate, get boy/girl/attack-helicopter friends, get married, join the military, go to college, start careers, and generally age-out of the cadet program.  The largest issue has been getting new cadets to join (who will, in turn, drag some of their parents into the program, too.)

When the pandemic started, I had people look at me (through their Zoom cameras) as if I had grown three fire-breathing heads when I'd try to explain that recruiting needs to continue during the pandemic.  MANY Recruiting & Retention Officers have told me they're not going to "waste their time" with virtual recruiting and they're just going to wait for things to go back to normal.

It seems that pent-up demand is starting to push through as youth are finding their way into our cadet program.  While new cadets in 2020 were the lowest in decades (only 6,814 compared to the typical 10,000 to 12,000 range), 2021 jumped back inside the typical range with 10,719 new cadets. 

Side note, the second-lowest single year for new cadets (2007) and lowest multi-year downturn for new cadets was 2005-2008 (when he-who-shall-not-be-named was running things at Hogwarts).

So a question that I have for the group:
How do we think we're doing with overall leadership in CAP? Squadron commanders, wing commanders, national commander? I mean on a general scale...when it comes to recruiting and member outreach specifically?

Maj Gen Smith was obviously a very visible National Commander. He was joining squadron meetings. He was posting to Facebook and YouTube. You saw a lot of emails from him with him directly speaking to the fleet.

I'm sure Maj Gen Phelka has a different style. He also has a different schedule of availability. One thing that I know Ed Phelka is big on is in-person appearances. He doesn't do as much virtual, at least from what I've known of him.

I see a lot of unit commanders who just don't do virtual outreach. They don't do Facebook. They don't do Instagram. Heck, during the first wave of the pandemic, I hearing from some units that their commander wouldn't even join the virtual meeting because they didn't have internet at home. You want a bunch of teens and younger adults to go, "What is it with these old guys?" That's exactly how that comes up...

As newer cadets come in, and younger cadets become older cadets, and older cadets become senior members, and younger senior members become older senior members...are we failing at reaching them through modern day technology and social media?

I had a senior officer ask me a couple of weeks ago: "What the heck do cadets use these days to communicate? They're not on Facebook." I said, "Well, a lot of them use Reddit. They're on Discord. They have the attention span of a goldfish. We used to say people couldn't read past the headline. These guys don't read headlines. They look at the meme and that's where they get recruited."

I recently spoke with our local national guard recruiting office to team up on some recruiting strategy. They said, "We have the exact same problem. And less and less schools even want us to have a footprint. We're getting less recruits, and we can't find a way to reach out to that age group any more. And a big problem is that the people who are 25, 30-years-old now; they don't read information anymore either. They're starting to fall away from Facebook and what we used to use to recruit."


My stance is that the data from 2005 and 2015 no longer applies. These kids were born in 2005. They joined in 2017, maybe later. They're nearly grown up now. What do we do with the kids who are born in 2015? What is our plan to shift to a new recruiting strategy to get them excited so that they're joining when they turn 12 or 14?

The military recruiting model was to excite teens so that they were signing up when they could legally enlist; add in some college recruiting as well (ROTC, etc.). How are we going to get the modern kid to be excited to join CAP in 1 year from today? How about in 6 months? How about in 24 months?

Quote from: TheSkyHornet on January 05, 2022, 03:46:03 PMSo a question that I have for the group:
How do we think we're doing with overall leadership in CAP? Squadron commanders, wing commanders, national commander? I mean on a general scale...when it comes to recruiting and member outreach specifically?

Maj Gen Smith was obviously a very visible National Commander. He was joining squadron meetings. He was posting to Facebook and YouTube. You saw a lot of emails from him with him directly speaking to the fleet.

I'm sure Maj Gen Phelka has a different style. He also has a different schedule of availability. One thing that I know Ed Phelka is big on is in-person appearances. He doesn't do as much virtual, at least from what I've known of him.

I see a lot of unit commanders who just don't do virtual outreach. They don't do Facebook. They don't do Instagram. Heck, during the first wave of the pandemic, I hearing from some units that their commander wouldn't even join the virtual meeting because they didn't have internet at home. You want a bunch of teens and younger adults to go, "What is it with these old guys?" That's exactly how that comes up...

As newer cadets come in, and younger cadets become older cadets, and older cadets become senior members, and younger senior members become older senior members...are we failing at reaching them through modern day technology and social media?

I had a senior officer ask me a couple of weeks ago: "What the heck do cadets use these days to communicate? They're not on Facebook." I said, "Well, a lot of them use Reddit. They're on Discord. They have the attention span of a goldfish. We used to say people couldn't read past the headline. These guys don't read headlines. They look at the meme and that's where they get recruited."

I recently spoke with our local national guard recruiting office to team up on some recruiting strategy. They said, "We have the exact same problem. And less and less schools even want us to have a footprint. We're getting less recruits, and we can't find a way to reach out to that age group any more. And a big problem is that the people who are 25, 30-years-old now; they don't read information anymore either. They're starting to fall away from Facebook and what we used to use to recruit."


My stance is that the data from 2005 and 2015 no longer applies. These kids were born in 2005. They joined in 2017, maybe later. They're nearly grown up now. What do we do with the kids who are born in 2015? What is our plan to shift to a new recruiting strategy to get them excited so that they're joining when they turn 12 or 14?

The military recruiting model was to excite teens so that they were signing up when they could legally enlist; add in some college recruiting as well (ROTC, etc.). How are we going to get the modern kid to be excited to join CAP in 1 year from today? How about in 6 months? How about in 24 months?

The answer is, you don't recruit Cadets on Facebook. When I did PAO Academy 5 years ago this was the message, and it's very true. Tomorrow's Cadets aren't scrolling Facebook today, and the types of social media they are using, they don't want to see sales pitches and ads.

Who do you recruit on Facebook? Moms and dads and grandparents. You post lots of pictures of activities, in hopes that C/Amn Jones' grandparents will see them and share to their friends, who are also grandparents, in hopes one of their friends thinks "wow, I bet my grandchild would like to do that too," and they pass the word along.

If your recruiting on FB is targeted to anyone under 35, you're doing it wrong.

Word of mouth has been the best recruiting tool we have. Having the type of program Cadets want to invite their friends to, and then giving them opportunities to do just that, is how we've grown over the last few years, even through the pandemic. Facebook is a great tool to update the parents and grandparents on the happenings at the Squadron, but the only way to reach the Cadets it seems is through their friends and family.

Quote from: NIN on January 04, 2022, 10:03:27 PMI just got the December numbers. Nationally, senior retention was at 74.6% in December. I can tell you from experience without looking at the numbers specifically that senior retention has held steady around that rate for a good long time.

Every year a number of people drop out of participation but keep paying dues as a contribution. So while that 74% number may be official, there would be a big cumulative effect each year. Seems like that number might be growing each year.

Participation numbers are the only numbers that truly matter. The others are just for the advertising and marketing folks to use in their reports to USAF and Congress.

Quote from: etodd on January 06, 2022, 12:53:39 AMParticipation numbers are the only numbers that truly matter.

Which is why NHQ will not track them, nor define "active".

Quote from: Capt Thompson on January 05, 2022, 11:35:38 PMWho do you recruit on Facebook? Moms and dads and grandparents. You post lots of pictures of activities, in hopes that C/Amn Jones' grandparents will see them and share to their friends, who are also grandparents, in hopes one of their friends thinks "wow, I bet my grandchild would like to do that too," and they pass the word along.

If your recruiting on FB is targeted to anyone under 35, you're doing it wrong.

Facebook is definitely not the hottest spot for finding potential cadets but there are still about 30% of teens and preteens who claim in surveys to use Facebook (likely because it's a familiar platform for parents so they feel comfortable letting little Jane and Johnny explore FB under their watchful eye).  Other media like YouTube, Snapchat, Reddit, Instagram, etc. are popular with teens... and then there's that "dark corner of the internet" known as TikTok which continues to grow.  As much as people disdain TikTok, there are actually a lot of potential cadets there however, others above my paygrade aren't the least bit interested in even glancing in that direction right now. 

Quote from: Capt Thompson on January 05, 2022, 11:35:38 PMWord of mouth has been the best recruiting tool we have. Having the type of program Cadets want to invite their friends to, and then giving them opportunities to do just that, is how we've grown over the last few years, even through the pandemic. Facebook is a great tool to update the parents and grandparents on the happenings at the Squadron, but the only way to reach the Cadets it seems is through their friends and family.

Word of mouth can be a powerful recruiting medium but you have to keep two things in mind:

1) In order for word of mouth to be most successful, your squadron needs to have an ACTIVE and ENGAGING program where members are regularly DOING FUN STUFF.  A schedule consisting of nothing but and endless loop of Drill, PT, Aerospace, Character Development... rinse, repeat... rinse, repeat...  won't inspire current members to tell others about all the fun and awesome things they're doing.  With strong leadership and a dedicated team driving all aspects of the program at the local level, squadrons can (and have) been able to rely solely on WoM for recruiting.

2) One potential drawback of word of mouth is from a diversity perspective.  Word of mouth will get more of what you already have.  If your squadron doesn't reflect the demographics of your local community (race, gender, education, income, political or religious affiliation, etc.) then word of mouth recruiting won't do much to change that and more deliberate and directed recruiting efforts will be needed.

Quote from: baronet68 on January 06, 2022, 07:59:31 AM1) In order for word of mouth to be most successful, your squadron needs to have an ACTIVE and ENGAGING program where members are regularly DOING FUN STUFF. 

This goes back to having the type of program Cadets will want to invite their friends to.

Another thing I forgot to mention is Facebook Groups. Finding groups dedicated to the local area, and posting there has been very helpful. Again, most of the Cadets aren't in these groups, but their parents and grandparents are. Posting about our recent O-Flights along with plenty of pictures of smiling Cadets at 3000 AGL in the local "Monroe County and Friends" Facebook group got us a handful of messages on our page about the program, which allowed us to get contact info and invite them to the next open house in March. About a month before the open house, I'll start posting in the same group, plus a few more, in addition to the local paper, local cable access TV, and a whole lot of word of mouth advertising, and that will pretty much fill the seats and get us 7-10 new Cadets for the Spring Great Start Cohort. The PAO and R&R Officer should be searching for, and joining as many local groups as possible for just this purpose.

Quote from: baronet68 on January 06, 2022, 07:59:31 AM2) One potential drawback of word of mouth is from a diversity perspective. 

Not such a drawback if the Squadron already reflects the demographics of the local community, but I could see where this could be an issue if the Squadron didn't.

One other avenue to explore, homeschool co-ops. A few years ago our Squadron R&R Officer tapped into a local homeschool group and brought in 6 new Cadets, and they have continually brought in others to open houses. For many of them, we are their extra curricular activity, so they not only look forward to coming each week, but don't usually have conflicts with other sports and activities, and were already used to doing school at home so when we went to virtual in 2020 and again in 2021 it didn't really phase them as much.

Quote from: Capt Thompson on January 06, 2022, 01:29:27 PMOne other avenue to explore, homeschool co-ops. A few years ago our Squadron R&R Officer tapped into a local homeschool group and brought in 6 new Cadets, and they have continually brought in others to open houses...

(emphasis added)


This demonstrates the point that word of mouth will get more of what you already have. 

Quote from: baronet68 on January 05, 2022, 07:21:08 AMGenerally speaking, senior member retention has actually been very consistent.  Even long-term, less-than-active members (the kind who haven't darkened a squadron's doorstep in years) keep writing that annual dues payment check because a) they believe and support CAP and b) they are among the few people in the world who still write checks.

Guilty!  Thanks for giving me a smile to start my day!

Quote from: baronet68 on January 07, 2022, 06:04:00 AM

Quote from: Capt Thompson on January 06, 2022, 01:29:27 PMOne other avenue to explore, homeschool co-ops. A few years ago our Squadron R&R Officer tapped into a local homeschool group and brought in 6 new Cadets, and they have continually brought in others to open houses...

(emphasis added)


This demonstrates the point that word of mouth will get more of what you already have. 

Not going to argue there, in this case the homeschool kids are more dedicated, have better attendance, sign up for every activity and volunteer opportunity, work harder, listen better and are better leaders than most other Cadets we've had in the past, so more of them wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing. Plus, if the homeschool coop matches the diversity of the surrounding community, or in our case, is slightly more diverse than the surrounding community, I have no issues with growing our Squadron with their help.

At this point, I think most Squadrons would be happy to take in any new Cadets they can, through whatever avenue they can. Word of mouth has worked better for us than any of the other avenues, so whatever Cadets come in that way, we're going to welcome them in. If they bring their friends a few months later to the next open house, I'm not exactly going to say no to them either. If we're going to survive as an organization after all of this is over, each Squadron needs to find something that works for them and run with it, even if diversity metrics or whatever else NHQ tracks is thrown off for a few years while we rebuild the program.

Ah, yes, that awkward moment when I need to ask for a check or money order to include with a paper application...

Quote from: TheSkyHornet on January 07, 2022, 09:20:46 PMAh, yes, that awkward moment when I need to ask for a check or money order to include with a paper application...

Online app:   https://www.capnhq.gov/CAP.MembershipSystem.Web/CadetOnlineApp.aspx

Quote from: etodd on January 07, 2022, 10:32:48 PM

Quote from: TheSkyHornet on January 07, 2022, 09:20:46 PMAh, yes, that awkward moment when I need to ask for a check or money order to include with a paper application...

Online app:   https://www.capnhq.gov/CAP.MembershipSystem.Web/CadetOnlineApp.aspx

Uh...thanks? I'm familiar with it.

That still doesn't change the fact that we have a paper form for senior members.

Quote from: NIN on January 04, 2022, 10:03:27 PM

Quote from: Dwight Dutton on January 04, 2022, 09:37:03 PM

Quote from: Eclipse on January 04, 2022, 08:02:05 PMNeither of the above explains the bump in cadets during that same time frame, though clearly whomever was joining did not engage enough to "stick", which may have been the result of improper expectations.

I would very much like to know what percent of members renew even the first time.  I strongly suspect that number may be as low as 20%, considering how many new member boards I do for a unit who's total membership never seems to change.

I just got the December numbers. Nationally, senior retention was at 74.6% in December. I can tell you from experience without looking at the numbers specifically that senior retention has held steady around that rate for a good long time.  Sometimes its in the 73s, sometimes its in the 75s... Even with COVID it hasn't varied much as far as I've noticed.  (I have a little project to put the last two years of data into my spreadsheet.. I've been ... slacking)

Its been my observation that if someone renews at all, they are probably going to stay long term.  So say 20% of them renew after the first year, but 85% renew every year after that - you could get the 74.6% you see.

Where I am at least, CAP does not recruit based on what we actually do.  People join on that mistaken belief and after about half a year see the organization for what it really is.  Far less than half like what they actually see.  But obviously some do, and those stick around for decades.

In that latter category you then have to make the distinction between those who like it enough to stick around on paper and keep that door open if they ever want to get active again (usually not) and those who remain active productive members - and unless your personnel officer is typing in the attendance rosters after every meeting National does not have that information.

Quote from: TheSkyHornet on January 08, 2022, 10:50:31 PM

Quote from: etodd on January 07, 2022, 10:32:48 PM

Quote from: TheSkyHornet on January 07, 2022, 09:20:46 PMAh, yes, that awkward moment when I need to ask for a check or money order to include with a paper application...

Online app:   https://www.capnhq.gov/CAP.MembershipSystem.Web/CadetOnlineApp.aspx

Uh...thanks? I'm familiar with it.

That still doesn't change the fact that we have a paper form for senior members.

Well the fingerprints are paper anyway so I guess they do not want online app and then have to wait for fingerprints separate. This way, HDS gets them together. And card payments are fine. You don't have to ask for a check:

QuoteSubmit your application, fingerprint card and dues through one of the following ways:

Mail

Checks (made payable to Civil Air Patrol) or money orders are accepted for dues payment.

If paying by credit card, include the information listed below to process the application. The required information includes:

Type of Card - Visa, MasterCard or Discover

Card Number

Expiration Date

3 Digit Security Code on the Back of the Card

Name on Card

Mail your completed application, fingerprint card and dues payment to:

Civil Air Patrol/DP

105 S. Hansell St. Bldg 714

Maxwell AFB, AL  36112

You do if you want to collect squadron dues, don't you?

Quote from: etodd on January 09, 2022, 10:15:31 PMType of Card - Visa, MasterCard or Discover

Card Number

Expiration Date

3 Digit Security Code on the Back of the Card

Name on Card

This sounds like a great way to get your CC stolen.

PCI is apparently a 4-letter word at NHQ.

Why on earth doesn't NHQ provide have a secure payment gateway for adult memberships?
A non-trivial number of people these days don't even have traditional checking accounts.

Quote from: Eclipse on January 09, 2022, 11:20:33 PMWhy on earth doesn't NHQ provide have a secure payment gateway for adult memberships?

I suppose they don't want to lose the 3-4% in card fees. And if they raised the membership fee to cover it, so many would complain.

Quote from: etodd on January 09, 2022, 11:41:02 PM

Quote from: Eclipse on January 09, 2022, 11:20:33 PMWhy on earth doesn't NHQ provide have a secure payment gateway for adult memberships?

I suppose they don't want to lose the 3-4% in card fees. And if they raised the membership fee to cover it, so many would complain.

If they accept the card, there are still fees.