COVID was already a thing and CAP hit its highest membership numbers since 20 years ago at 38,718 senior members.  (Supposedly at one point in the 1950's we briefly went over 100,000)

Since then there are 5,000 fewer senior members.  I can attribute that to COVID, but now I'm really curious as to what was going so RIGHT just before this all hit?

No one seems to know the true numbers. The only one that matters is participation numbers. When you see that "38,718" number, that includes huge numbers of people that stopped attending meetings years ago, but keep paying their dues as a contribution. That number accumulated greatly over the years. A very false sense of growth.

Squadrons that have 75 members, but only 25 show up at meetings, and even less for an actual mission or SAREX.

The 5000 you mention losing since then probably includes a big number that would attend every once in awhile, but with COVID, yes, decided it was time to look elsewhere.

Membership numbers had been slowly rising for years leading up to COVID. There wasn't anything special about June of 2020, it just happened to be the high point before COVID-related attrition began showing up in the numbers.

Quote from: dwb on January 03, 2022, 06:23:39 PMMembership numbers had been slowly rising for years leading up to COVID. There wasn't anything special about June of 2020, it just happened to be the high point before COVID-related attrition began showing up in the numbers.

But the major "COVID shutdowns" began in March 2020. That means that between March and June 2020, there were still new members joining.

So the questions are: Who, where, and why?

I think a lot of the numbers make sense in that the universe was shutdown, and CAP was still actively meeting and engaging with members of their community, albeit virtually. It was a place for people to get involved and remain active in a social network despite everything being closed.

But forward to the time when things started to reopen, and you saw this steep drop-off of participation; and many people stopped renewing. In some cases, it took months for it to show up in eServices, as it really depends on when units signed on their members.

CAP was able to use COVID-19 as an outreach for recruiting, and it worked really well early on. But that was an extreme circumstance that was exceptionally limited and no longer a viable approach once states began to relax their restrictions and returned to a greater sense of normalcy. And, once again, you're seeing some states closing up again, which may drive number spikes in those areas depending on how tight the restrictions get; thus, limiting activities elsewhere. CAP is a reasonable avenue to stay active and get involved in networking again.

But for those states that aren't tightening up, where CAP is, you're going to continue to see the numbers fall in those wings.

Quote from: etodd on January 03, 2022, 06:21:03 PMSquadrons that have 75 members, but only 25 show up at meetings, and even less for an actual mission or SAREX.

Not everybody in CAP does Emergency Services. I would guess maybe 50% of the membership max.

I'm trying to find the memo, but one of you will probably be quicker and post it before I find it. If you remember, in early 2020 NHQ made the decision to push back expiration dates for any members expiring in the first few months of the pandemic. I believe everyone was pushed back until June, but I could be mistaken. If I find the memo I'll post it here.

Here is the thread: http://captalk.net/index.php?topic=24990.msg433466#msg433466

90 day extension from March = June, so we were still bringing folks in to some point, but those that would have dropped off over those 3 months stayed on as well, which is why there's a huge drop in July 2020.

Quote from: Capt Thompson on January 03, 2022, 08:39:25 PMHere is the thread: http://captalk.net/index.php?topic=24990.msg433466#msg433466

90 day extension from March = June, so we were still bringing folks in to some point, but those that would have dropped off over those 3 months stayed on as well, which is why there's a huge drop in July 2020.

Good find. I definitely forgot about the extension (one of many confusing waivers from the COVID era).

That makes perfect sense as to why we see a major drop over the summer last year. So how are the trends through 2021? Anyone have a graph?

Quote from: TheSkyHornet on January 03, 2022, 09:00:25 PMAnyone have a graph?

Everyone does, or at least members do - you can see all member numbers for all units and nationally.

Seniors have been flat since the fall-off in June - July 2020, and cadets were as well, with
an uptick of about 2k as things loosened up in April, and then flat the last couple months.

Quote from: Eclipse on January 03, 2022, 09:31:37 PM

Quote from: TheSkyHornet on January 03, 2022, 09:00:25 PMAnyone have a graph?

Everyone does, or at least members do - you can see all member numbers for all units and nationally.

Seniors have been flat since the fall-off in June - July 2020, and cadets were as well, with
an uptick of about 2k as things loosened up in April, and then flat the last couple months.

Can't tell people about a resource without at least showing where said resource is located:

Quote from: dwb on January 03, 2022, 06:23:39 PMMembership numbers had been slowly rising for years leading up to COVID. There wasn't anything special about June of 2020, it just happened to be the high point before COVID-related attrition began showing up in the numbers.

Look at June of 2020, and for some reason March of 2003, from the graph available in eservices.  There are spikes at those two dates, followed by a dropoff.

Quote from: Dwight Dutton on January 03, 2022, 10:20:08 PM

Quote from: dwb on January 03, 2022, 06:23:39 PMMembership numbers had been slowly rising for years leading up to COVID. There wasn't anything special about June of 2020, it just happened to be the high point before COVID-related attrition began showing up in the numbers.

Look at June of 2020, and for some reason March of 2003, from the graph available in eservices.  There are spikes at those two dates, followed by a dropoff.

I'm going to blame the 2003 dropoff on 9/11.

There was a nation-wide drop-off in adults after Sept 2002 and 2003, which can be attributed to the Post-9/11 membership growth.  That growth was extended by the lead-up to passing the Homeland Security Act of 2002.  The act made it sound like CAP was going to have an expanded role in the post-9/11 world.  When it was realized that CAP wasn't really going to have much in the way of new homeland security roles, many of those who joined in Sept 2001 didn't renew in 2003.

That's my guess.

Yeah, membership numbers don't directly reflect active members, but I'd feel safe that the percentage of active/inactive members has been fairly consistent over time, or at least the last 20-30 years. 

Quote from: baronet68 on January 03, 2022, 10:51:51 PM

Quote from: Dwight Dutton on January 03, 2022, 10:20:08 PM

Quote from: dwb on January 03, 2022, 06:23:39 PMMembership numbers had been slowly rising for years leading up to COVID. There wasn't anything special about June of 2020, it just happened to be the high point before COVID-related attrition began showing up in the numbers.

Look at June of 2020, and for some reason March of 2003, from the graph available in eservices.  There are spikes at those two dates, followed by a dropoff.

I'm going to blame the 2003 dropoff on 9/11.

There was a nation-wide drop-off in adults after Sept 2002 and 2003, which can be attributed to the Post-9/11 membership growth.  That growth was extended by the lead-up to passing the Homeland Security Act of 2002.  The act made it sound like CAP was going to have an expanded role in the post-9/11 world.  When it was realized that CAP wasn't really going to have much in the way of new homeland security roles, many of those who joined in Sept 2001 didn't renew in 2003. That's my guess.

My squadron was located in a group of four trailers.  One of them, known as "Trailer 3", turned out to be a time capsule.  When I went in to do a logistics inventory over a decade later, I found in one case an office with a desk and paperwork dated 2003 half completed still on the desk.  I made several comments to many people about the 2003 phenomenon, but nobody had an explanation for it until now.

I often wonder where we would be now if that split between CAP and the USAF had been delayed just one year.  We would probably become part of the new DHS and oh how different it would all be now.

Quote from: baronet68 on January 03, 2022, 09:50:13 PM

Quote from: Eclipse on January 03, 2022, 09:31:37 PM

Quote from: TheSkyHornet on January 03, 2022, 09:00:25 PMAnyone have a graph?

Everyone does, or at least members do - you can see all member numbers for all units and nationally.

Seniors have been flat since the fall-off in June - July 2020, and cadets were as well, with
an uptick of about 2k as things loosened up in April, and then flat the last couple months.

Can't tell people about a resource without at least showing where said resource is located:

That's incredible, actually. I had zero clue that this existed.

Okay, so here's my wing's stats since January 2019:

• 15 March 2020, Phase 0
• 10 August 2020, Phase 1
• 02 March 2021, Phase 2
• 28 May 2021, Phase 3
• 28 December 2021, Phase 1 (Virtual only)
• 15 January 2021, Phase 1 (10-persons; anticipated)

It should be noted when looking at the member numbers...

NHQ quotes the EOM number from the previous month as the "current" number(s).

There is a precipitous drop off every month of members who "forget" to renew,
which generally normalizes mid-month.

Another point, which I think has been brought up before.

A significant number of the inexplicable increase in senior members between 2018-2020 may
well be AEMs, specifically teachers.

From what I can tell, AEMs and Patrons are still counted in the global numbers reported
to Congress and used for marketing.

Neither of the above explains the bump in cadets during that same time frame, though clearly
whomever was joining did not engage enough to "stick", which may have been the result of
improper expectations.

Quote from: Eclipse on January 04, 2022, 08:02:05 PMNeither of the above explains the bump in cadets during that same time frame, though clearly whomever was joining did not engage enough to "stick", which may have been the result of improper expectations.

I would very much like to know what percent of members renew even the first time.  I strongly suspect that number may be as low as 20%, considering how many new member boards I do for a unit who's total membership never seems to change.

Quote from: Dwight Dutton on January 03, 2022, 06:08:57 PMCOVID was already a thing and CAP hit its highest membership numbers since 20 years ago at 38,718 senior members.  (Supposedly at one point in the 1950's we briefly went over 100,000)

Since then there are 5,000 fewer senior members.  I can attribute that to COVID, but now I'm really curious as to what was going so RIGHT just before this all hit?

Well, there is a graphic that Maj Moore and I joke around about where it shows him taking over from me as the National Recruiting and Retention Manager right about the time where everything goes to heck....



To be completely fair to him, thats just me joking around. (someone could take a similar screenshot of my wing's membership and say "We were doing great right up until that Ninness joker took over, and then look what happened!")

I think, just speaking as the former Recruiting Manager, that we were in a period of growth due to a host of factors, some of which were obvious and some less so. Speaking strictly for what I was doing:

- From 2015 onward, there was increased National-level emphasis on recruiting directly to commanders and recruiting officers
- From 2015 to 2019, there were recruiting-specific training events (YouTube OnAir, conference presentations, recruiting "boot camp" at the national conference, etc) nationally. Again, "increased emphasis." 
- More discussions about TTPs and doctrinal changes like emphasis on "recruiting for fit" and "cohort recruiting" that was more narrowly focused at the squadron level Recruiting officers and commanders.

You also see waxes and wanes in membership, broadly as a lagging indicator, per commander. I think partly (COVID aside) General Smith getting an extra year helped continue on a series of emphasis items in that regard.

I'm not going to tell you that anything I really did had anything to do with that upward trend ... But hey, I'll wink and take a tiny bit of credit. I suspect that the personnel train has up and down swings that we don't really have a correlation to, and its hard to point to ONE THING or "these 5 things" as having much to do with it.  Except, of course, the disgusting slip-and-slide that COVID brought to our front lawn.

As an aside, the reason we peaked when we did was that the General extended membership expirations for (I think) 90-ish days at the beginning of the COVID lockdown. Meaning people who would have expired in March, April & May (or April, May and June) didn't actually expire until July, contributing to the upward trajectory for a little while past the onset of the COVID situation.

BTW, this was on track to be a THIRTY YEAR high in membership for cadets and a 29 year high for seniors.