As of today...

Phase I:   12
Phase II:  19
Phase III: 21

https://www.gocivilairpatrol.com/covid-19-remobilization

Quote from: Shuman 14 on December 28, 2021, 08:57:13 PM

Quote from: jeders on December 27, 2021, 10:02:31 PMYou're done. [ETA] This is in reference ONLY to the user JohnnyD, not the thread as a whole. Please keep the discussion on topic and respectful and we will keep it open.

Jeders,

Respectfully, Capt Thompson is saying there is a morgue where they are "stacking bodies" as if it was a fact, but then he provided no substantiation of the alleged "fact". JohnnyD's request for substantiation shouldn't be grounds for a suspension. 

If this "morgue" is actually "stacking bodies", why is it a secret? If it is a "secret", why is a CAP Officer referencing it on an open public forum? For that matter, how would a CAP Officer have knowledge of a "secret" morgue?

I don't think it is unreasonable to request that Capt Thompson cite his source... if he has one.

As stated earlier sir, my wife is an employee of the hospital. Part of her job is patient transport, and she has personally been involved with transport to the morgue.

The fact that hospital morgues are over capacity is hardly newsworthy anymore. When COVID first appeared in 2020 and most local hospitals were bringing in reefers to hold overflow, it was on every news station. Almost two years later an over capacity morgue at a public hospital gets no media coverage. That doesn't make it false because the media no longer chooses to cover it.

Quote from: Eclipse on December 27, 2021, 10:31:06 PMAt this point, it doesn't matter here "why" NHQ has chosen a number and a vector,
it's just downstream CC's job to salute and execute.

^^ Worth repeating.  You folks can cite this study and that study all day long and for the purposes of us rank and file members, none of it means jack. Just spinning your wheels.

Talk of vaccines and studies in CAPTalk is just a waste of bandwidth. We don't make decisions.

Its all "above our pay grade" as military folks tell me. We are just suppose to do as ordered from above, and not ask questions or argue with commands coming down from above.

Quote from: etodd on December 29, 2021, 02:43:58 AMIts all "above our pay grade" as military folks tell me. We are just suppose to do as ordered from above, and not ask questions or argue with commands coming down from above.

Unfortunately for this view we are not a military organization, but a civilian one. We can (and do) provide input and express our opinions on policy decisions made at the national levels, up the chain TO the national level. Discussions such as this with peers outside our normal circles help (in some cases) to focus our thoughts. The put up and shut up attitude will only further contribute to the decline of CAP.

I for one appreciate the opposing viewpoints and comments (and am still digesting/reading), thanks.

V/r
Spam

Quick edit: GA Wing is moving back to Phase 1 on Monday (with the approval of NHQ that is).
Quick edit2: I am pressing forward as an IC with a late JAN21 DREX exercise, which I'd planned to be minimal ICP staffing in the event of a Phase 1 retreat... we think we've demonstrated that we can safely operate under Ph1, so we're executing.

Quote from: AirDX on December 31, 2021, 06:36:07 PM

Quote from: etodd on December 29, 2021, 02:43:58 AMIts all "above our pay grade" as military folks tell me. We are just suppose to do as ordered from above, and not ask questions or argue with commands coming down from above.

Unfortunately for this view we are not a military organization, but a civilian one. We can (and do) provide input and express our opinions on policy decisions made at the national levels, up the chain TO the national level. Discussions such as this with peers outside our normal circles help (in some cases) to focus our thoughts. The put up and shut up attitude will only further contribute to the decline of CAP.

Those who know my posts here over the years would realize the tongue-in-cheek and satire this post was.  We have no standards. One thread,  we are told to follow the regs and do as we are told.  Then the next thread topic, its all over the place.

Quote from: Capt Thompson on December 29, 2021, 01:08:44 AM

Quote from: Shuman 14 on December 28, 2021, 08:57:13 PM

Quote from: jeders on December 27, 2021, 10:02:31 PMYou're done. [ETA] This is in reference ONLY to the user JohnnyD, not the thread as a whole. Please keep the discussion on topic and respectful and we will keep it open.

Jeders,

Respectfully, Capt Thompson is saying there is a morgue where they are "stacking bodies" as if it was a fact, but then he provided no substantiation of the alleged "fact". JohnnyD's request for substantiation shouldn't be grounds for a suspension. 

If this "morgue" is actually "stacking bodies", why is it a secret? If it is a "secret", why is a CAP Officer referencing it on an open public forum? For that matter, how would a CAP Officer have knowledge of a "secret" morgue?

I don't think it is unreasonable to request that Capt Thompson cite his source... if he has one.

As stated earlier sir, my wife is an employee of the hospital. Part of her job is patient transport, and she has personally been involved with transport to the morgue.

The fact that hospital morgues are over capacity is hardly newsworthy anymore. When COVID first appeared in 2020 and most local hospitals were bringing in reefers to hold overflow, it was on every news station. Almost two years later an over capacity morgue at a public hospital gets no media coverage. That doesn't make it false because the media no longer chooses to cover it.

It does, however, make it anecdotal rather than a data point that can be used for any realistic level of discussion.

Quote from: Holding Pattern on January 03, 2022, 09:23:57 AM

Quote from: Capt Thompson on December 29, 2021, 01:08:44 AM

Quote from: Shuman 14 on December 28, 2021, 08:57:13 PM

Quote from: jeders on December 27, 2021, 10:02:31 PMYou're done. [ETA] This is in reference ONLY to the user JohnnyD, not the thread as a whole. Please keep the discussion on topic and respectful and we will keep it open.

Jeders,

Respectfully, Capt Thompson is saying there is a morgue where they are "stacking bodies" as if it was a fact, but then he provided no substantiation of the alleged "fact". JohnnyD's request for substantiation shouldn't be grounds for a suspension. 

If this "morgue" is actually "stacking bodies", why is it a secret? If it is a "secret", why is a CAP Officer referencing it on an open public forum? For that matter, how would a CAP Officer have knowledge of a "secret" morgue?

I don't think it is unreasonable to request that Capt Thompson cite his source... if he has one.

As stated earlier sir, my wife is an employee of the hospital. Part of her job is patient transport, and she has personally been involved with transport to the morgue.

The fact that hospital morgues are over capacity is hardly newsworthy anymore. When COVID first appeared in 2020 and most local hospitals were bringing in reefers to hold overflow, it was on every news station. Almost two years later an over capacity morgue at a public hospital gets no media coverage. That doesn't make it false because the media no longer chooses to cover it.

It does, however, make it anecdotal rather than a data point that can be used for any realistic level of discussion.

I'm not a lawyer sir, nor do I play one on TV, but as far as I know (and I'm sure you'll correct me if I'm wrong), anecdotal evidence, even that which is heard secondhand by a witness, is still admissible in court. Not sure I can say the same for Daily Mail (a tabloid) or the Daily Skeptic (which claims to be a forum for experts and non experts alike to publish their views), both of which have been used as "evidence" in this thread.

I've been blessed in that I have the ability to speak with frontline healthcare workers every day, and the recommendations that have been handed down have been very much in line with CDC guidance thus far, as well as the guidance handed down by NHQ. If you feel my wife's firsthand knowledge of her hospital is anecdotal and therefore not worth mentioning, than I can live with that and won't mention it again, but it doesn't change the fact that agree or not, we need to take the direction from NHQ and enforce it at our local meetings, even if it's at odds with the Daily Sceptic.

We're back to the morality of this subject...

Let me rehash my points from a previous thread (I believe it's now locked after this got relatively personal, just as this thread is starting to turn to)---

There is an argument here as to whether there is a moral obligation (i.e., "We have a responsibility") to shut down/demobilize versus a compliance-based obligation (i.e., "The government says we have to"). The problem with the moral side of it is that not everyone does agree on the best approach. This is where you have the membership in-fighting because we don't all agree on the same method, and we're all pretending like we're data experts or that we work in it day-to-day on the frontlines, or that we know someone who does. Mileage varies here.

And what we're facing with the compliance side is that it's very easy in states that are in shutdown mode for CAP members to have to deal with it. When the state says, "everyone," well, we're part of the everyone, right?

But what happens when the state didn't say anything and there are no statewide restrictions? In this case, when CAP says "We're shutting down" but not the state, now we're facing that question of Why is CAP doing this? No matter how you twist it ("We're smarter than the state...we're being proactive;" whatever it is), a good chunk of the member corps wants to know why CAP is closing up for x-period of time but not the schools, or gyms, or offices, etc.

My wing is back to virtual meetings. No, it's not up for me to debate nor be noncompliant with my leaders to refuse to obey and just do my own thing because I'm smarter and have a better grasp on reality. It doesn't work like that. But, regardless, I'm in a state that has imposed no additional restrictions and hasn't since June. Our members can go to school, they can play full contact sports, they can go to the rec center, colleges are open, restaurants are open...you don't even have to put on a face mask by law; it's up to local businesses to decide that. But we can't meet in person. Now, the reasons for the decision aside, our members don't understand it because it's not the same approach that the state took.

So it's up to us lower-level leaders to explain to our members that we don't get to make the policy and that we don't get to undermine our superior officers' decisions just because we don't like it. And it's up to us to get creative and innovative to maintain member morale while we're closed up. It's also up to our leaders to seek our input and advice from the field and make decisions that will balance the safety of persons with the retention of our member corps because we are facing a large body of people who now see CAP as "closed" while everything else is open. Heck, a number of people just got back from vacation for the holidays (or are still out for a few more days). You can chastise them all you want to say that they're not making ethical or moral decisions to "stop the spread," but nobody is mandating that they can't outside of CAP. And CAP is neither their parent nor their governor.

If CAP is the most restrictive set up rules, people will find something else that isn't so restrictive. The member roster didn't shrink because 50% of our members died over the past two years. It shrunk because people left and didn't come back because there is still life beyond CAP when CAP is the first to close up and the last to reopen.

In my area, there are now 38 cases with the China Virus in the regional hospital. 90 days ago that number was 130+.
(Source: https://cdapress.com/news/2022/jan/03/covid-19-watch/)

Case rates are WAY up, death rates and hospitalizations WAY down.

It appears the virus is now endemic and ought to be treated with a heavy dose of SUBSIDIARITY. Let local unit CCs make the calls.

Quote from: TheSkyHornet on January 03, 2022, 02:57:23 PMSo it's up to us lower-level leaders to explain to our members that we don't get to make the policy and that we don't get to undermine our superior officers' decisions just because we don't like it. And it's up to us to get creative and innovative to maintain member morale while we're closed up. It's also up to our leaders to seek our input and advice from the field and make decisions that will balance the safety of persons with the retention of our member corps because we are facing a large body of people who now see CAP as "closed" while everything else is open. Heck, a number of people just got back from vacation for the holidays (or are still out for a few more days). You can chastise them all you want to say that they're not making ethical or moral decisions to "stop the spread," but nobody is mandating that they can't outside of CAP. And CAP is neither their parent nor their governor.

Over 600 days of doing just that, and our unit had double-digit growth. Not sure how much longer that will be true. Seeing really valuable members drop.

BTW the overall data suggests that hospitals were not "overwhelmed" over the last two years, see:
https://www.census.gov/econ/currentdata/dbsearch?program=QSS&startYear=2010&endYear=2020&categories=622A&dataType=DISC&geoLevel=US&notAdjusted=1&submit=GET+DATA&releaseScheduleId=

Quote from: TheSkyHornet on January 03, 2022, 02:57:23 PMWe're back to the morality of this subject...

Let me rehash my points from a previous thread (I believe it's now locked after this got relatively personal, just as this thread is starting to turn to)---

There is an argument here as to whether there is a moral obligation (i.e., "We have a responsibility") to shut down/demobilize versus a compliance-based obligation (i.e., "The government says we have to"). The problem with the moral side of it is that not everyone does agree on the best approach. This is where you have the membership in-fighting because we don't all agree on the same method, and we're all pretending like we're data experts or that we work in it day-to-day on the frontlines, or that we know someone who does. Mileage varies here.

And what we're facing with the compliance side is that it's very easy in states that are in shutdown mode for CAP members to have to deal with it. When the state says, "everyone," well, we're part of the everyone, right?

But what happens when the state didn't say anything and there are no statewide restrictions? In this case, when CAP says "We're shutting down" but not the state, now we're facing that question of Why is CAP doing this? No matter how you twist it ("We're smarter than the state...we're being proactive;" whatever it is), a good chunk of the member corps wants to know why CAP is closing up for x-period of time but not the schools, or gyms, or offices, etc.

My wing is back to virtual meetings. No, it's not up for me to debate nor be noncompliant with my leaders to refuse to obey and just do my own thing because I'm smarter and have a better grasp on reality. It doesn't work like that. But, regardless, I'm in a state that has imposed no additional restrictions and hasn't since June. Our members can go to school, they can play full contact sports, they can go to the rec center, colleges are open, restaurants are open...you don't even have to put on a face mask by law; it's up to local businesses to decide that. But we can't meet in person. Now, the reasons for the decision aside, our members don't understand it because it's not the same approach that the state took.

So it's up to us lower-level leaders to explain to our members that we don't get to make the policy and that we don't get to undermine our superior officers' decisions just because we don't like it. And it's up to us to get creative and innovative to maintain member morale while we're closed up. It's also up to our leaders to seek our input and advice from the field and make decisions that will balance the safety of persons with the retention of our member corps because we are facing a large body of people who now see CAP as "closed" while everything else is open. Heck, a number of people just got back from vacation for the holidays (or are still out for a few more days). You can chastise them all you want to say that they're not making ethical or moral decisions to "stop the spread," but nobody is mandating that they can't outside of CAP. And CAP is neither their parent nor their governor.

If CAP is the most restrictive set up rules, people will find something else that isn't so restrictive. The member roster didn't shrink because 50% of our members died over the past two years. It shrunk because people left and didn't come back because there is still life beyond CAP when CAP is the first to close up and the last to reopen.

I must have missed the other post, but these are all excellent points. Unfortunately it's a rock and a hard place scenario, do we open back up to be like everyone else, and risk the health of our members, or stay closed to protect our members and lose a significant portion of them due to the fact that "everyone else is open." I wish there was a good "one size fits all" answer to this problem, but unfortunately there isn't.

Edited to correct a typo

Quote from: JohhnyD on January 03, 2022, 03:53:41 PMBTW the overall data suggests that hospitals were not "overwhelmed" over the last two years, see:
https://www.census.gov/econ/currentdata/dbsearch?program=QSS&startYear=2010&endYear=2020&categories=622A&dataType=DISC&geoLevel=US&notAdjusted=1&submit=GET+DATA&releaseScheduleId=

My statement may be anecdotal, and I apologize ahead for that fact, but could it be that the total discharges were trending down about 1k per quarter, because hospitals stopped accepting non-emergent patents, cancelled elective surgeries etc. I know my local hospital had 4 floors dedicated to COVID for most of 2020 and into early 2021, which took away from the amount of non-emergent cases they normally would have treated, and then discharged, so these numbers completely support the statement that many hospitals were overwhelmed by COVID patients.

Quote from: Capt Thompson on January 03, 2022, 03:57:05 PMI must have missed the other post, but these are all excellent points. Unfortunately it's a rock and a hard place scenario, do we open back up to be like everyone else, and risk the health of our members, ...

Or we could open up and let MEMBERS and local unit CCs make these calls, based on their own risk assessments.

Quote from: Capt Thompson on January 03, 2022, 03:57:05 PM...or stay closed to protect our members and lose a significant portion of them due to the fact that "everyone else is open."

Really? We risk the loss of "a significant portion" of our membership from a virus that is over 99% survivable?

Quote from: Capt Thompson on January 03, 2022, 04:05:49 PMso these numbers completely support the statement that many hospitals were overwhelmed by COVID patients.

How?

And one more news article:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10364503/Denmark-health-chief-says-Omicron-bringing-END-pandemic.html

Denmark health chief says Omicron is bringing about the END of the pandemic and 'we will have our normal lives back in two months'
Tyra Grove Krause is the chief epidemiologist at Denmark's State Serum Institute
Speaking Monday, she said Omicron's hospitalisation risk was half that of Delta
This, she said, could spell the end of the pandemic in around two months

Quote from: JohhnyD on January 03, 2022, 03:50:16 PMChina Virus

Seriously?

And one more regards risks to our cadets:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57766717

The overall risk of children becoming severely ill or dying from Covid is extremely low, a new analysis of Covid infection data confirms.

0.000002 risk for those under 18.

Quote from: dwb on January 03, 2022, 04:14:57 PM

Quote from: JohhnyD on January 03, 2022, 03:50:16 PMChina Virus

Seriously?

Yes. That is where it came from. Sort of like the Spanish Influenza, except more accurate.