IL Wing moving Back to Phase 1, COVID-19

Started by Shuman 14, December 23, 2021, 03:34:31 PM

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AirDX

All I have to say is our Wisconsin hospitals are not clogged with asymptomatic folks. For a solid two months the Monday email that the EMS director at the hospital my squad serves sends out has been saying med/surg units full, overflow unit full, ICU full, bedding 5-10 patients in the ED until a bed opens up elsewhere. And a significant number of our 911 responses are for "difficulty breathing, COVID positive". In August, statewide we were averaging 2-3 deaths per day; since mid-December we've been over 40/day and still climbing. It's real, and it's still dangerous.

 
Believe in fate, but lean forward where fate can see you.

JohhnyD

Breaking: A coronavirus outbreak aboard the USS Milwaukee, whose entire crew was "100% immunized," has forced the ship to remain in port.

jeders

Quote from: JohhnyD on December 26, 2021, 06:52:25 AMBreaking: A coronavirus outbreak aboard the USS Milwaukee, whose entire crew was "100% immunized," has forced the ship to remain in port.

Which kind of proves what everyone else has been saying, it's still real and we still need to take it seriously.
If you are confident in you abilities and experience, whether someone else is impressed is irrelevant. - Eclipse

fyrfitrmedic

Quote from: AirDX on December 26, 2021, 06:49:26 AMAll I have to say is our Wisconsin hospitals are not clogged with asymptomatic folks. For a solid two months the Monday email that the EMS director at the hospital my squad serves sends out has been saying med/surg units full, overflow unit full, ICU full, bedding 5-10 patients in the ED until a bed opens up elsewhere. And a significant number of our 911 responses are for "difficulty breathing, COVID positive". In August, statewide we were averaging 2-3 deaths per day; since mid-December we've been over 40/day and still climbing. It's real, and it's still dangerous.

 

Every hospital in our county has been on divert for much of the past two weeks. There simply aren't enough available beds upstairs even when the ED isn't " full."
MAJ Tony Rowley CAP
Lansdowne PA USA
"The passion of rescue reveals the highest dynamic of the human soul." -- Kurt Hahn

JohhnyD

Quote from: jeders on December 27, 2021, 05:47:40 PM
Quote from: JohhnyD on December 26, 2021, 06:52:25 AMBreaking: A coronavirus outbreak aboard the USS Milwaukee, whose entire crew was "100% immunized," has forced the ship to remain in port.

Which kind of proves what everyone else has been saying, it's still real and we still need to take it seriously.
It also kind of shows that nothing we have done has been effective. So let's do it again?

Capt Thompson

Quote from: JohhnyD on December 27, 2021, 07:30:50 PM
Quote from: jeders on December 27, 2021, 05:47:40 PM
Quote from: JohhnyD on December 26, 2021, 06:52:25 AMBreaking: A coronavirus outbreak aboard the USS Milwaukee, whose entire crew was "100% immunized," has forced the ship to remain in port.

Which kind of proves what everyone else has been saying, it's still real and we still need to take it seriously.
It also kind of shows that nothing we have done has been effective. So let's do it again?

Causing a ship to remain in port to quarantine isn't proof that our efforts have been in vain. The fact that the entirety of the ICU at my wife's hospital are unvaccinated, most who come to the ER are unvaccinated, and they are still stacking bodies in the morgue because it is over capacity, proves this is still very real, and should be taken seriously.
Capt Matt Thompson
Deputy Commander for Cadets, Historian, Public Affairs Officer

Mitchell - 31 OCT 98 (#44670) Earhart - 1 OCT 00 (#11401)

JohhnyD

Quote from: Capt Thompson on December 27, 2021, 07:44:14 PMand they are still stacking bodies in the morgue because it is over capacity
What morgue is that? I assume it is newsworthy and there are pictures?

JohhnyD

Quote from: Capt Thompson on December 27, 2021, 07:44:14 PMCausing a ship to remain in port to quarantine isn't proof that our efforts have been in vain.
It sure doesn't show that anything worked. Ditto the massive crisis you say in your local area after a full year and half of mitigation and a year of vaccination. What has worked, in your estimation? The lockdowns? The masks? The vaccinations?

Capt Thompson

Quote from: JohhnyD on December 27, 2021, 08:11:00 PM
Quote from: Capt Thompson on December 27, 2021, 07:44:14 PMand they are still stacking bodies in the morgue because it is over capacity
What morgue is that? I assume it is newsworthy and there are pictures?
Sure, lets post photos of corpses on the news, I'm sure Hipaa would love that. What could go wrong?

Quote from: JohhnyD on December 27, 2021, 08:13:20 PMIt sure doesn't show that anything worked. Ditto the massive crisis you say in your local area after a full year and half of mitigation and a year of vaccination. What has worked, in your estimation? The lockdowns? The masks? The vaccinations?

It shows they are quarantining the ship out of precaution and nothing more, that's pretty standard.

The fact that ICU's are now mainly full of unvaccinated patients shows the vaccine is doing it's job. Maybe you missed all of those statistics that have been in the news over the past few months, where several major hospitals throughout the country have been reporting their ICU's are mainly filled with unvaxxed?

So why aren't we further along almost two years into the pandemic? Because of people who refuse to be vaccinated, despite the fact that an overwhelming amount of doctors and scientists are suggesting you get it.

Funny story (not really). In November, a very close friend of mine put up a social media post, about how "these doctors treat you like a 3rd class citizen when you tell them the vaccine is a hoax." I didn't hear from him until just before Christmas, because he spend almost a month on a vent. Just a few months earlier, another close friend of both of ours, also anti vax, died at the ripe old age of 36 from complications due to COVID.


Bottom line, this virus is still out there, it's a real threat, and needs to be taken seriously, at least for the 3 hours a week you are in contact with the Cadets. Whether or not you believe mitigation strategies are working, they are, but we're nowhere close to being out of the woods yet.
Capt Matt Thompson
Deputy Commander for Cadets, Historian, Public Affairs Officer

Mitchell - 31 OCT 98 (#44670) Earhart - 1 OCT 00 (#11401)

JohhnyD

Quote from: Capt Thompson on December 27, 2021, 09:16:31 PM
Quote from: JohhnyD on December 27, 2021, 08:11:00 PM
Quote from: Capt Thompson on December 27, 2021, 07:44:14 PMand they are still stacking bodies in the morgue because it is over capacity
What morgue is that? I assume it is newsworthy and there are pictures?
Sure, lets post photos of corpses on the news, I'm sure Hipaa would love that. What could go wrong?

Quote from: JohhnyD on December 27, 2021, 08:13:20 PMIt sure doesn't show that anything worked. Ditto the massive crisis you say in your local area after a full year and half of mitigation and a year of vaccination. What has worked, in your estimation? The lockdowns? The masks? The vaccinations?

It shows they are quarantining the ship out of precaution and nothing more, that's pretty standard.

The fact that ICU's are now mainly full of unvaccinated patients shows the vaccine is doing it's job. Maybe you missed all of those statistics that have been in the news over the past few months, where several major hospitals throughout the country have been reporting their ICU's are mainly filled with unvaxxed?

So why aren't we further along almost two years into the pandemic? Because of people who refuse to be vaccinated, despite the fact that an overwhelming amount of doctors and scientists are suggesting you get it.

Funny story (not really). In November, a very close friend of mine put up a social media post, about how "these doctors treat you like a 3rd class citizen when you tell them the vaccine is a hoax." I didn't hear from him until just before Christmas, because he spend almost a month on a vent. Just a few months earlier, another close friend of both of ours, also anti vax, died at the ripe old age of 36 from complications due to COVID.


Bottom line, this virus is still out there, it's a real threat, and needs to be taken seriously, at least for the 3 hours a week you are in contact with the Cadets. Whether or not you believe mitigation strategies are working, they are, but we're nowhere close to being out of the woods yet.

So a morgue so full that they are stacking bodies is not newsworthy? You offer no evidence for your claims.

Try this for evidence that maybe what we have done is NOT working:
https://dailysceptic.org/2021/12/22/triple-vaccinated-more-than-four-times-more-likely-to-test-positive-for-omicron-than-unvaccinated-data-shows/

jeders

#31
Quote from: JohhnyD on December 27, 2021, 09:50:58 PMTry this for evidence that maybe what we have done is NOT working:
https://dailysceptic.org/2021/12/22/triple-vaccinated-more-than-four-times-more-likely-to-test-positive-for-omicron-than-unvaccinated-data-shows/

What this shows, if you bothered to actually read it, is that the vaccine is INCREDIBLY effective against all of the previous variants of COVID, so much so that the only thing making it through is the Omicron variant.

Quote from: undefinedSo a morgue so full that they are stacking bodies is not newsworthy? You offer no evidence for your claims.

You're done. [ETA] This is in reference ONLY to the user JohnnyD, not the thread as a whole. Please keep the discussion on topic and respectful and we will keep it open.
If you are confident in you abilities and experience, whether someone else is impressed is irrelevant. - Eclipse

Capt Thompson

Quote from: JohhnyD on December 27, 2021, 09:50:58 PMSo a morgue so full that they are stacking bodies is not newsworthy? You offer no evidence for your claims.
They actually did make the news last year, when most of the local hospitals were not only stacking bodies, but had reefer trailers parked outside for overflow. I don't need to provide you evidence that I would probably get arrested trying to obtain, or that would get my wife fired trying to obtain to appease some guy on the internet, that would make perfect sense.
Capt Matt Thompson
Deputy Commander for Cadets, Historian, Public Affairs Officer

Mitchell - 31 OCT 98 (#44670) Earhart - 1 OCT 00 (#11401)

Eclipse

The Covid Remob / stand down and NHQ policy information is important.

Rather then locking every thread, just remove the political nonsense.

At this point, it doesn't matter here "why" NHQ has chosen a number and a vector,
it's just downstream CC's job to salute and execute.

"That Others May Zoom"

Spam

With respect, this isn't equal treatment.

Asking for a citation for a claim is not "political nonsense". Many of us, you included Eclipse, have done the same on many topics without being blocked or censored, and his comment was not an ad hominem attack.

It does, in fact, matter a great deal to the average member where these numbers come from, and asking is a time honored American thing to not just accept a party line. There is ample evidence that the source of many stats and claims on this issue, the CDC, has moved the goal posts several times and has played a shell game with the numbers upon which our CAP restrictions are credulously based (citations below). Therefore, asking for citations should not be a banning/locking criterion, I believe.

References:
Different PCR testing standards inflate case counts and are supporting skewed narratives: 
The CDC from the beginning has recommended a PCR test Cycle Threshold (CT) of 40, against existing consensus that CTs over 35 will produce 97 percent false positive rates, rendering the test useless. In May 2021, CDC finally lowered its CT recommendation - but only for vaccinated subjects, leading to skewed results with fewer positives for vaccinated and far greater percentages for unvaccinated tested subjects (still held to a CT of 40 per the CDC). The PCR numbers which CAP uses to shut down ops, are borderline meaningless.
https://www.fda.gov/media/134922/download
https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/72/11/e921/5912603
https://thevaccinereaction.org/2020/09/coronavirus-cases-plummet-when-pcr-tests-are-adjusted/

Moving goal posts (definitions):
In a shifty, pretty "sus" move this summer, CDC quietly changed the definition of "vaccine" on their website, to remove the definition, "a product that stimulates a persons immune system to produce immunity to a specific disease, protecting the person from that disease", and to substitute the following: "preparation that is used to stimulate the body's immune response against diseases". Deleting the term "product immunity" to prop up the failure of the mRNA gene therapies to protect us, without any explanation, calls into question their integrity and, in turn, the validity of all their other products, data, and recommendations on which CAPs guidelines rest.
https://web.archive.org/web/20210826113846/https:/www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/imz-basics.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/imz-basics.htm


Outright, demonstrably false claims about vaccine efficacy:
During a CNN presidential town hall in Cincinnati, in late July 2021, the following immensely false claim was issued, which was of scant comfort to the many vaccinated family members who went to the hospital just two months later. It is important to remember the fallibility of the organization (*regardless of administration in office) behind this sweeping false statement when dismissing contrary voices as "fake", and asking us to just "salute and execute" without asking "why":
"We have a pandemic for those who haven't gotten a vaccination. It's that basic, that simple. If you're vaccinated, you're not going to be hospitalized, not going to the ICU unit, and not going to die. You're not going to get COVID if you have these vaccinations."
https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/vaccine/biden-covid-vaccine-drive/507-6f482433-d3cf-41ee-a09d-b7f01e1436bd

V/r
Spam

NovemberWhiskey

#35
No, there are no differences in PCR testing to determine SARS-CoV-2 infection used for vaccinated individuals:

https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/pcr-tests-on-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-people-are-evaluated-using-the-same-criteria-the-cdc-didnt-change-criteria-for-detecting-infection-in-vaccinated-people-as-alleged-in-off-guardian-a/

No, mRNA vaccines are not "gene therapy":

https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-covid-mrna-gene-idUSL1N2PH16N

Yes, vaccines are extremely effective at reducing COVID-related hospitalization:

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#covidnet-hospitalizations-vaccination

It is certainly the right of everyone to evaluate the claims that the CDC makes, but the vast majority of people are entirely unqualified to do so, and are instead relying on third-party sources which are looking to push a particular viewpoint. If you go looking for "evidence", you can certainly find sources that make false, misleading or other doubtful claims about vaccines; however, the sources should not be considered to have equal weight.

A genuine skepticism would not stop at questioning the CDC, but also those other sources which often have much inferior bona fides.

Spam

See, now that is a response that I truly appreciate. 
Counter points, cited sources (which I will go read now), and avoids personal attacks.
Thanks November, that was awesome, much love!

Very Respectfully,
Spam

Shuman 14

Quote from: jeders on December 27, 2021, 10:02:31 PMYou're done. [ETA] This is in reference ONLY to the user JohnnyD, not the thread as a whole. Please keep the discussion on topic and respectful and we will keep it open.

Jeders,

Respectfully, Capt Thompson is saying there is a morgue where they are "stacking bodies" as if it was a fact, but then he provided no substantiation of the alleged "fact". JohnnyD's request for substantiation shouldn't be grounds for a suspension. 

If this "morgue" is actually "stacking bodies", why is it a secret? If it is a "secret", why is a CAP Officer referencing it on an open public forum? For that matter, how would a CAP Officer have knowledge of a "secret" morgue?

I don't think it is unreasonable to request that Capt Thompson cite his source... if he has one.
Joseph J. Clune
Lieutenant Colonel, Military Police

USMCR: 1990 - 1992                           USAR: 1993 - 1998, 2000 - 2003, 2005 - Present     CAP: 2013 - 2014, 2021 - Present
INARNG: 1992 - 1993, 1998 - 2000      Active Army: 2003 - 2005                                       USCGAux: 2004 - Present

Pace

Scientific discovery is continually happening. Viruses are very difficult to vaccinate against because they mutate quickly. As new strains emerge, we're partially back to the beginning and praying what we have in place is somewhat effective at deterring the new strain until we can better understand it through study. This is incredibly frustrating for society; however, recommendations will evolve based on the latest and best data available. For most of the world, except for a select few who are epidemiology experts, this will appear confusing and, at times, contradicting. Unfortunately, it's the best system we have.

The data being passed around inside the medical community about omicron will scare some and relieve others, but CAPTalk isn't the place for that discussion. There are plenty of medical forums out there to hash this out.

NHQ guidance was issued. A wing became more restricted. The information was shared so more people may be informed. Let's please leave it at that before this one gets locked. If you have a specific complaint, take it through your chain of command.
Lt Col, CAP

LSThiker

Quote from: Spam on December 28, 2021, 04:58:25 AMReferences:
Different PCR testing standards inflate case counts and are supporting skewed narratives:
The CDC from the beginning has recommended a PCR test Cycle Threshold (CT) of 40, against existing consensus that CTs over 35 will produce 97 percent false positive rates, rendering the test useless. In May 2021, CDC finally lowered its CT recommendation - but only for vaccinated subjects, leading to skewed results with fewer positives for vaccinated and far greater percentages for unvaccinated tested subjects (still held to a CT of 40 per the CDC). The PCR numbers which CAP uses to shut down ops, are borderline meaningless.
- https://www.fda.gov/media/134922/download
- https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/72/11/e921/5912603
- https://thevaccinereaction.org/2020/09/coronavirus-cases-plummet-when-pcr-tests-are-adjusted/

I stay out of CAPTalk debates mostly because they are just a time waste.  However, as a person that has ran plenty of qPCR and qRT-PCR and designed such assays over the last 17 years along with running a COVID-19 lab, I felt compelled to include my input. I would like to say the above is completely incorrect.

When running samples for SARS-CoV-2, there is no information on the laboratory side whether a sample is from a vaccinated or a non-vaccinated person. From the laboratory standpoint, we do not care.  Thus, when Ct values are determined, which most are done by the instrument using a determined threshold, there would be no way we could assign one Threshold value to one classification of patient and another Threshold value to another patient classification. 

Also, at a Ct value of 35, less than 3% of cultures are positive does not mean that 97% of samples are false positives.  Culture, while considered the gold standard for many viruses due to its historical lineage, still has plenty of issues associated with it for diagnostic means. A PCR assay can be positive while a culture is negative. This is the reason that PCR is the gold standard for younger scientists and becoming such for older scientists. Nevertheless, this does not mean there are not issues with PCR either. There are many nuances to laboratory medicine and clinical diagnostics.  Sensitivity and specificity are important factors when running assays to include pre-analytical, analytical, and post-analytical errors.

I agree that a Ct value of >40 was too high for the CDC EUA SARS-COV-2 qRT-PCR.  Unfortunately, I was not involved with the design of that assay so I cannot speak definitively about why 40 was chosen.  Usually when I design PCR, qPCR, and qRT-PCR assays, I go no more than 35 cycles, but there are scientifically accepted reasons to go 40 cycles.  Most of the laboratory directors that I know, to include myself, that had a Ct value >35 on the CDC EUA assay would run the sample on another instrument using a different assay design to verify the positivity.  Other SARS-CoV-2 EUA assays developed (by outside companies) went with no more than 35 cycles.  By May 2020, most laboratories were only using the CDC EUA assay as a back-up to the other platforms. Checking my numbers, 99.9% of my samples were run using assays other than the CDC EUA assay.

The change that the CDC made in May 2021 was not due to the positivity or the positivity of vaccinated individuals.  Rather it was to determine when we needed to do sequencing.  Trying to sequencing a genome of a virus with greater than 28 cycles was difficult.  That is, by the end of the sequencing, usually the human genome out competed the viral genome, making it difficult to get the required read depth and coverage of the viral genome. So most of labs would reject the sequencing effort if the Ct values were not low.

Quote from: undefinedfailure of the mRNA gene therapies

mRNA vaccines are not gene therapies, so no.  There are only 2 gene therapies approved in the US as of 2021.  CAR-T therapy is gene therapy for certain types of leukemia and lymphoma. The other is adenovirus vector therapy specifically for retinal dystrophy and spinal muscular atrophy.