Just got an email, Illinois is moving back into Phase 1 as the infection rates are rising.
COVID really does suck. :(
Perfect timing to get some FEMA/DHS/TEEX/CDP training done online. Or that wonderful AGH video that I think I'm up for renewal on too!
Or netacad if you're feeling adventurous about technology.
Wisconsin is close to the same. It's the times.
There are 9 Wings back at P1 (I think that's actually changed in the last hour).
https://www.gocivilairpatrol.com/covid-19-remobilization
Can anyone tell me from whence the 10 persons per meeting in Phase I comes from... other than someone in NHQ said so? Seems to me if you screen, mask, and maintain social distance, how many people you have in a meeting is irrelevant.
Quote from: AirDX on December 23, 2021, 08:33:08 PMCan anyone tell me from whence the 10 persons per meeting in Phase I comes from... other than someone in NHQ said so?
Wings submit(ted) their remediation plans and NHQ approved them. I would guess "10" is a WAG
intended to get a small number doing "something" while basically still encouraging virtual meetings.
One could also conjecture that in many units, 10 people is what generally shows up, especially now.
Were I a CC, I can't imagine why units would want to "hybrid meet", just stay virtual again until the smoke clears.
Quote from: Eclipse on December 23, 2021, 08:51:34 PMWere I a CC, I can't imagine why units would want to "hybrid meet", just stay virtual again until the smoke clears.
That's easy, because virtual killed a lot of squadrons. It worked out ok at first because no one was going to school, malls, theaters, or anywhere else for that matter. But once ANYTHING opened up, virtual meeting attendance plummeted and people started leaving.
As a commander, I will not go full virtual until I'm told I absolutely have to. I will do everything possible to maintain an in-person presence, even if it is limited to a small group (or multiple small groups spread out over time and space), because that's the only thing keeping us going.
Quote from: Eclipse on December 23, 2021, 08:51:34 PMWings submit(ted) their remediation plans and NHQ approved them. I would guess "10" is a WAG
intended to get a small number doing "something" while basically still encouraging virtual meetings.
10 was in the template that NHQ put out, and I'm told they would (will) not budge from that. In March 2020 it may have made some sort of sense as we scrambled. Now... we can screen, social distance, mask, and sanitize, and that's pretty much state of the art. We should be able to meet with as many as we can get into a space and yet maintain the above.
We're losing our cadets to activities that can and do meet and conduct their business in person, with appropriate restrictions. Tell the cadet he/she has to meet virtually... after they've spent the day on the school bus, in school, and sports and other extracurriculars are going on, albeit with some changes. They will not come.
Quote from: AirDX on December 23, 2021, 08:33:08 PMCan anyone tell me from whence the 10 persons per meeting in Phase I comes from... other than someone in NHQ said so? Seems to me if you screen, mask, and maintain social distance, how many people you have in a meeting is irrelevant.
Ten in a trailer vs. ten in a vast hangar, same answer via policy, but really the question is will commanders apply logic in application of the policy (I can't tell you that).
You are asking a great question. What you are looking for is an answer based on sound analysis using the scientific process resulting in evidence based conclusions. Unfortunately, you won't find that, because the scientific process today is invoked (like a religion) rather than followed as a logical process when making policy.
The answer you are left with is: "because" coupled with "comply". Which is what I've been forced to tell my commanders, sadly. I wish we had better answers for you.
V/r
Spam
So hopefully, you only have 8 cadets max, because you need 2 seniors. Any more than that and you have to pick and choose who attends.
The gap between P1 and P2 is straight up ludicrous. 10 to 50. WTF. 20-25 for P1 seems fine.
I need to recruit because I'm sitting on a bunch of cadets that hit phase II and phase III over the last year or two. This garbage of bouncing back and forth is making it hard to build a unit that actually does what the CP is supposed to do.
I know NHQ people read this board. This is for them: you need to stop worrying so much about getting sued and start taking input from the line units. That applies to more than COVID.
Why are we using case count as our metric?
Quote from: JohhnyD on December 24, 2021, 03:41:50 PMWhy are we using case count as our metric?
What metric would you rather see used and why?
Cases/per 100k people are a common easy to understand number that doesn't require any special analysis. Cases per capita quickly show relative severity mean the same thing in Idaho as it does in Texas or New York.
And strictly speaking, we aren't, we are using a combination of daily new cases per 100k people and infection rate.
Quote from: Jester on December 24, 2021, 07:22:15 AMSo hopefully, you only have 8 cadets max, because you need 2 seniors. Any more than that and you have to pick and choose who attends.
Not really, you just have to set up cohorts. Is it more work, yes; does it allow cadets to stay engaged, yes; is it worth it to keep cadets and seniors engaged, absolutely!
Quote from: undefinedThe gap between P1 and P2 is straight up ludicrous. 10 to 50. WTF. 20-25 for P1 seems fine.
First off, abbreviating offensive words is still offensive.
Second off, and this is just my personal opinion, I agree that the gap doesn't seem to make sense. Id personally rather see the phase 2 limit somewhere around 30 with a phase 3 limit of 50.
Quote from: undefinedI need to recruit because I'm sitting on a bunch of cadets that hit phase II and phase III over the last year or two. This garbage of bouncing back and forth is making it hard to build a unit that actually does what the CP is supposed to do.
I agree that bouncing back and forth between phases makes it very difficult to grow (or even sustain) a unit. That's why it's so important to set up those small cohorts so that we can keep cadets active in phase 1. It's also important to remember that, while NHQ approves each wings re-mobilization plan, it's the wings that come up with it. If you're upset by the plan, first get in touch with your wing's re-mobilization team.
Quote from: undefinedI know NHQ people read this board. This is for them: you need to stop worrying so much about getting sued and start taking input from the line units. That applies to more than COVID.
I can't be certain, but I'm pretty sure (at least with Covid) they're less concerned about lawsuits than they are keeping people safe and healthy and not being the source for a new outbreak.
New York Wing has gone to Phase 1 as of 24 Dec 21.
Quote from: jeders on December 24, 2021, 08:12:21 PMQuote from: JohhnyD on December 24, 2021, 03:41:50 PMWhy are we using case count as our metric?
What metric would you rather see used and why?
Cases/per 100k people are a common easy to understand number that doesn't require any special analysis. Cases per capita quickly show relative severity mean the same thing in Idaho as it does in Texas or New York.
And strictly speaking, we aren't, we are using a combination of daily new cases per 100k people and infection rate.
How about adding hospitalization rates and mortality? Omicron case rates are sky-high - hospitalization rates very low and death rates effectively ZERO. How do the current metrics deal with the changed nature of the now endemic China Virus?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10325955/Rising-Omicron-cases-not-matched-hospitalisations-figures-show.html
Figures suggest rising cases of feared new Covid strain have not led to an increase in hospital admissions... despite public bracing for lockdown
Quote from: JohhnyD on December 24, 2021, 09:11:20 PMhttps://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10325955/Rising-Omicron-cases-not-matched-hospitalisations-figures-show.html
Figures suggest rising cases of feared new Covid strain have not led to an increase in hospital admissions... despite public bracing for lockdown
I'm not sure that a British tabloid is the best source for pandemic data...
Funny, that's not the ground truth here.
My co-worker does per diem work at the local hospital. Two weeks ago, they had more hospitalizations for COIVD than they had at the "height" of the infections in 2020. They've started moving patients out of the negative pressure wards as they get better into the orthopedic wards, which is not what they did last year.
Death rate isn't a solid gauge, either. Matter of fact, it's a trailing indicator. And kind of the wrong one.
Imagine if safety said "doesn't matter if our flying accident rate went up by three times last year, we're only killing pilots at a slightly higher rate, so crack on, lads"?
Quote from: NIN on December 25, 2021, 03:43:58 PMTwo weeks ago, they had more hospitalizations for COIVD than they had at the "height" of the infections in 2020.
Localized anecdotes are no better. Moreover, we see reports like:
"The emergency department at the Rutland Regional Medical Center has been overwhelmed with asymptomatic folks."
https://wcax.com/2021/12/22/covid-positive-vermonters-with-no-symptoms-clog-up-ers/
"asymptomatic folks" are people who do NOT need to be hospitalized. So why are they? Fear. Fear mongering and really bad data have driven this crisis. And it is driving many of our members away.
Worse any effort to discuss this gets shut down. I expect this thread and my comments to go "poof" at any time.
BTW Merry Christmas to all!
I'm not a mod here, but from my POV, it is not the discussion of the issues that gets the thread shut down, but the triggered personal attacks from people that can't hold in their behavior. If we can keep the discussion based on evidence and rational debate, we shouldn't have an issue.
R/s
Spam
COVID-positive Vermonters with no symptoms clog up ERs https://wcax.com/2021/12/22/covid-positive-vermonters-with-no-symptoms-clog-up-ers/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=snd&utm_content=wcax #vt
Vermont has one of the highest vaxx rates in the USA.
All I have to say is our Wisconsin hospitals are not clogged with asymptomatic folks. For a solid two months the Monday email that the EMS director at the hospital my squad serves sends out has been saying med/surg units full, overflow unit full, ICU full, bedding 5-10 patients in the ED until a bed opens up elsewhere. And a significant number of our 911 responses are for "difficulty breathing, COVID positive". In August, statewide we were averaging 2-3 deaths per day; since mid-December we've been over 40/day and still climbing. It's real, and it's still dangerous.
Breaking: A coronavirus outbreak aboard the USS Milwaukee, whose entire crew was "100% immunized," has forced the ship to remain in port.
Quote from: JohhnyD on December 26, 2021, 06:52:25 AMBreaking: A coronavirus outbreak aboard the USS Milwaukee, whose entire crew was "100% immunized," has forced the ship to remain in port.
Which kind of proves what everyone else has been saying, it's still real and we still need to take it seriously.
Quote from: AirDX on December 26, 2021, 06:49:26 AMAll I have to say is our Wisconsin hospitals are not clogged with asymptomatic folks. For a solid two months the Monday email that the EMS director at the hospital my squad serves sends out has been saying med/surg units full, overflow unit full, ICU full, bedding 5-10 patients in the ED until a bed opens up elsewhere. And a significant number of our 911 responses are for "difficulty breathing, COVID positive". In August, statewide we were averaging 2-3 deaths per day; since mid-December we've been over 40/day and still climbing. It's real, and it's still dangerous.
Every hospital in our county has been on divert for much of the past two weeks. There simply aren't enough available beds upstairs even when the ED isn't " full."
Quote from: jeders on December 27, 2021, 05:47:40 PMQuote from: JohhnyD on December 26, 2021, 06:52:25 AMBreaking: A coronavirus outbreak aboard the USS Milwaukee, whose entire crew was "100% immunized," has forced the ship to remain in port.
Which kind of proves what everyone else has been saying, it's still real and we still need to take it seriously.
It also kind of shows that nothing we have done has been effective. So let's do it again?
Quote from: JohhnyD on December 27, 2021, 07:30:50 PMQuote from: jeders on December 27, 2021, 05:47:40 PMQuote from: JohhnyD on December 26, 2021, 06:52:25 AMBreaking: A coronavirus outbreak aboard the USS Milwaukee, whose entire crew was "100% immunized," has forced the ship to remain in port.
Which kind of proves what everyone else has been saying, it's still real and we still need to take it seriously.
It also kind of shows that nothing we have done has been effective. So let's do it again?
Causing a ship to remain in port to quarantine isn't proof that our efforts have been in vain. The fact that the entirety of the ICU at my wife's hospital are unvaccinated, most who come to the ER are unvaccinated, and they are still stacking bodies in the morgue because it is over capacity, proves this is still very real, and should be taken seriously.
Quote from: Capt Thompson on December 27, 2021, 07:44:14 PMand they are still stacking bodies in the morgue because it is over capacity
What morgue is that? I assume it is newsworthy and there are pictures?
Quote from: Capt Thompson on December 27, 2021, 07:44:14 PMCausing a ship to remain in port to quarantine isn't proof that our efforts have been in vain.
It sure doesn't show that anything worked. Ditto the massive crisis you say in your local area after a full year and half of mitigation and a year of vaccination. What has worked, in your estimation? The lockdowns? The masks? The vaccinations?
Quote from: JohhnyD on December 27, 2021, 08:11:00 PMQuote from: Capt Thompson on December 27, 2021, 07:44:14 PMand they are still stacking bodies in the morgue because it is over capacity
What morgue is that? I assume it is newsworthy and there are pictures?
Sure, lets post photos of corpses on the news, I'm sure Hipaa would love that. What could go wrong?
Quote from: JohhnyD on December 27, 2021, 08:13:20 PMIt sure doesn't show that anything worked. Ditto the massive crisis you say in your local area after a full year and half of mitigation and a year of vaccination. What has worked, in your estimation? The lockdowns? The masks? The vaccinations?
It shows they are quarantining the ship out of precaution and nothing more, that's pretty standard.
The fact that ICU's are now mainly full of unvaccinated patients shows the vaccine is doing it's job. Maybe you missed all of those statistics that have been in the news over the past few months, where several major hospitals throughout the country have been reporting their ICU's are mainly filled with unvaxxed?
So why aren't we further along almost two years into the pandemic? Because of people who refuse to be vaccinated, despite the fact that an overwhelming amount of doctors and scientists are suggesting you get it.
Funny story (not really). In November, a very close friend of mine put up a social media post, about how "these doctors treat you like a 3rd class citizen when you tell them the vaccine is a hoax." I didn't hear from him until just before Christmas, because he spend almost a month on a vent. Just a few months earlier, another close friend of both of ours, also anti vax, died at the ripe old age of 36 from complications due to COVID.
Bottom line, this virus is still out there, it's a real threat, and needs to be taken seriously, at least for the 3 hours a week you are in contact with the Cadets. Whether or not you believe mitigation strategies are working, they are, but we're nowhere close to being out of the woods yet.
Quote from: Capt Thompson on December 27, 2021, 09:16:31 PMQuote from: JohhnyD on December 27, 2021, 08:11:00 PMQuote from: Capt Thompson on December 27, 2021, 07:44:14 PMand they are still stacking bodies in the morgue because it is over capacity
What morgue is that? I assume it is newsworthy and there are pictures?
Sure, lets post photos of corpses on the news, I'm sure Hipaa would love that. What could go wrong?
Quote from: JohhnyD on December 27, 2021, 08:13:20 PMIt sure doesn't show that anything worked. Ditto the massive crisis you say in your local area after a full year and half of mitigation and a year of vaccination. What has worked, in your estimation? The lockdowns? The masks? The vaccinations?
It shows they are quarantining the ship out of precaution and nothing more, that's pretty standard.
The fact that ICU's are now mainly full of unvaccinated patients shows the vaccine is doing it's job. Maybe you missed all of those statistics that have been in the news over the past few months, where several major hospitals throughout the country have been reporting their ICU's are mainly filled with unvaxxed?
So why aren't we further along almost two years into the pandemic? Because of people who refuse to be vaccinated, despite the fact that an overwhelming amount of doctors and scientists are suggesting you get it.
Funny story (not really). In November, a very close friend of mine put up a social media post, about how "these doctors treat you like a 3rd class citizen when you tell them the vaccine is a hoax." I didn't hear from him until just before Christmas, because he spend almost a month on a vent. Just a few months earlier, another close friend of both of ours, also anti vax, died at the ripe old age of 36 from complications due to COVID.
Bottom line, this virus is still out there, it's a real threat, and needs to be taken seriously, at least for the 3 hours a week you are in contact with the Cadets. Whether or not you believe mitigation strategies are working, they are, but we're nowhere close to being out of the woods yet.
So a morgue so full that they are stacking bodies is not newsworthy? You offer no evidence for your claims.
Try this for evidence that maybe what we have done is NOT working:
https://dailysceptic.org/2021/12/22/triple-vaccinated-more-than-four-times-more-likely-to-test-positive-for-omicron-than-unvaccinated-data-shows/
Quote from: JohhnyD on December 27, 2021, 09:50:58 PMTry this for evidence that maybe what we have done is NOT working:
https://dailysceptic.org/2021/12/22/triple-vaccinated-more-than-four-times-more-likely-to-test-positive-for-omicron-than-unvaccinated-data-shows/
What this shows, if you bothered to actually read it, is that the vaccine is INCREDIBLY effective against all of the previous variants of COVID, so much so that the only thing making it through is the Omicron variant.
Quote from: undefinedSo a morgue so full that they are stacking bodies is not newsworthy? You offer no evidence for your claims.
You're done.
[ETA] This is in reference ONLY to the user JohnnyD, not the thread as a whole. Please keep the discussion on topic and respectful and we will keep it open.
Quote from: JohhnyD on December 27, 2021, 09:50:58 PMSo a morgue so full that they are stacking bodies is not newsworthy? You offer no evidence for your claims.
They actually did make the news last year, when most of the local hospitals were not only stacking bodies, but had reefer trailers parked outside for overflow. I don't need to provide you evidence that I would probably get arrested trying to obtain, or that would get my wife fired trying to obtain to appease some guy on the internet, that would make perfect sense.
The Covid Remob / stand down and NHQ policy information is important.
Rather then locking every thread, just remove the political nonsense.
At this point, it doesn't matter here "why" NHQ has chosen a number and a vector,
it's just downstream CC's job to salute and execute.
With respect, this isn't equal treatment.
Asking for a citation for a claim is not "political nonsense". Many of us, you included Eclipse, have done the same on many topics without being blocked or censored, and his comment was not an ad hominem attack.
It does, in fact, matter a great deal to the average member where these numbers come from, and asking is a time honored American thing to not just accept a party line. There is ample evidence that the source of many stats and claims on this issue, the CDC, has moved the goal posts several times and has played a shell game with the numbers upon which our CAP restrictions are credulously based (citations below). Therefore, asking for citations should not be a banning/locking criterion, I believe.
References:
Different PCR testing standards inflate case counts and are supporting skewed narratives:
The CDC from the beginning has recommended a PCR test Cycle Threshold (CT) of 40, against existing consensus that CTs over 35 will produce 97 percent false positive rates, rendering the test useless. In May 2021, CDC finally lowered its CT recommendation - but only for vaccinated subjects, leading to skewed results with fewer positives for vaccinated and far greater percentages for unvaccinated tested subjects (still held to a CT of 40 per the CDC). The PCR numbers which CAP uses to shut down ops, are borderline meaningless.
- https://www.fda.gov/media/134922/download (https://www.fda.gov/media/134922/download)
- https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/72/11/e921/5912603 (https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/72/11/e921/5912603)
- https://thevaccinereaction.org/2020/09/coronavirus-cases-plummet-when-pcr-tests-are-adjusted/ (https://thevaccinereaction.org/2020/09/coronavirus-cases-plummet-when-pcr-tests-are-adjusted/)
Moving goal posts (definitions):
In a shifty, pretty "sus" move this summer, CDC quietly changed the definition of "vaccine" on their website, to remove the definition, "a product that stimulates a persons immune system to produce immunity to a specific disease, protecting the person from that disease", and to substitute the following: "preparation that is used to stimulate the body's immune response against diseases". Deleting the term "product immunity" to prop up the failure of the mRNA gene therapies to protect us, without any explanation, calls into question their integrity and, in turn, the validity of all their other products, data, and recommendations on which CAPs guidelines rest.
- https://web.archive.org/web/20210826113846/https:/www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/imz-basics.htm (https://web.archive.org/web/20210826113846/https:/www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/imz-basics.htm)
- https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/imz-basics.htm (https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/imz-basics.htm)
Outright, demonstrably false claims about vaccine efficacy:
During a CNN presidential town hall in Cincinnati, in late July 2021, the following immensely false claim was issued, which was of scant comfort to the many vaccinated family members who went to the hospital just two months later. It is important to remember the fallibility of the organization (*regardless of administration in office) behind this sweeping false statement when dismissing contrary voices as "fake", and asking us to just "salute and execute" without asking "why":
"We have a pandemic for those who haven't gotten a vaccination. It's that basic, that simple. If you're vaccinated, you're not going to be hospitalized, not going to the ICU unit, and not going to die. You're not going to get COVID if you have these vaccinations."
- https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/vaccine/biden-covid-vaccine-drive/507-6f482433-d3cf-41ee-a09d-b7f01e1436bd (https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/vaccine/biden-covid-vaccine-drive/507-6f482433-d3cf-41ee-a09d-b7f01e1436bd)
V/r
Spam
No, there are no differences in PCR testing to determine SARS-CoV-2 infection used for vaccinated individuals:
https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/pcr-tests-on-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-people-are-evaluated-using-the-same-criteria-the-cdc-didnt-change-criteria-for-detecting-infection-in-vaccinated-people-as-alleged-in-off-guardian-a/
No, mRNA vaccines are not "gene therapy":
https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-covid-mrna-gene-idUSL1N2PH16N
Yes, vaccines are extremely effective at reducing COVID-related hospitalization:
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#covidnet-hospitalizations-vaccination
It is certainly the right of everyone to evaluate the claims that the CDC makes, but the vast majority of people are entirely unqualified to do so, and are instead relying on third-party sources which are looking to push a particular viewpoint. If you go looking for "evidence", you can certainly find sources that make false, misleading or other doubtful claims about vaccines; however, the sources should not be considered to have equal weight.
A genuine skepticism would not stop at questioning the CDC, but also those other sources which often have much inferior bona fides.
See, now that is a response that I truly appreciate.
Counter points, cited sources (which I will go read now), and avoids personal attacks.
Thanks November, that was awesome, much love!
Very Respectfully,
Spam
Quote from: jeders on December 27, 2021, 10:02:31 PMYou're done. [ETA] This is in reference ONLY to the user JohnnyD, not the thread as a whole. Please keep the discussion on topic and respectful and we will keep it open.
Jeders,
Respectfully, Capt Thompson is saying there is a morgue where they are "stacking bodies" as if it was a fact, but then he provided no substantiation of the alleged "fact". JohnnyD's request for substantiation shouldn't be grounds for a suspension.
If this "morgue" is actually "stacking bodies", why is it a secret? If it is a "secret", why is a CAP Officer referencing it on an open public forum? For that matter, how would a CAP Officer have knowledge of a "secret" morgue?
I don't think it is unreasonable to request that Capt Thompson cite his source... if he has one.
Scientific discovery is continually happening. Viruses are very difficult to vaccinate against because they mutate quickly. As new strains emerge, we're partially back to the beginning and praying what we have in place is somewhat effective at deterring the new strain until we can better understand it through study. This is incredibly frustrating for society; however, recommendations will evolve based on the latest and best data available. For most of the world, except for a select few who are epidemiology experts, this will appear confusing and, at times, contradicting. Unfortunately, it's the best system we have.
The data being passed around inside the medical community about omicron will scare some and relieve others, but CAPTalk isn't the place for that discussion. There are plenty of medical forums out there to hash this out.
NHQ guidance was issued. A wing became more restricted. The information was shared so more people may be informed. Let's please leave it at that before this one gets locked. If you have a specific complaint, take it through your chain of command.
Quote from: Spam on December 28, 2021, 04:58:25 AMReferences:
Different PCR testing standards inflate case counts and are supporting skewed narratives:
The CDC from the beginning has recommended a PCR test Cycle Threshold (CT) of 40, against existing consensus that CTs over 35 will produce 97 percent false positive rates, rendering the test useless. In May 2021, CDC finally lowered its CT recommendation - but only for vaccinated subjects, leading to skewed results with fewer positives for vaccinated and far greater percentages for unvaccinated tested subjects (still held to a CT of 40 per the CDC). The PCR numbers which CAP uses to shut down ops, are borderline meaningless.
- https://www.fda.gov/media/134922/download (https://www.fda.gov/media/134922/download)
- https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/72/11/e921/5912603 (https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/72/11/e921/5912603)
- https://thevaccinereaction.org/2020/09/coronavirus-cases-plummet-when-pcr-tests-are-adjusted/ (https://thevaccinereaction.org/2020/09/coronavirus-cases-plummet-when-pcr-tests-are-adjusted/)
I stay out of CAPTalk debates mostly because they are just a time waste. However, as a person that has ran plenty of qPCR and qRT-PCR and designed such assays over the last 17 years along with running a COVID-19 lab, I felt compelled to include my input. I would like to say the above is completely incorrect.
When running samples for SARS-CoV-2, there is no information on the laboratory side whether a sample is from a vaccinated or a non-vaccinated person. From the laboratory standpoint, we do not care. Thus, when Ct values are determined, which most are done by the instrument using a determined threshold, there would be no way we could assign one Threshold value to one classification of patient and another Threshold value to another patient classification.
Also, at a Ct value of 35, less than 3% of cultures are positive does not mean that 97% of samples are false positives. Culture, while considered the gold standard for many viruses due to its historical lineage, still has plenty of issues associated with it for diagnostic means. A PCR assay can be positive while a culture is negative. This is the reason that PCR is the gold standard for younger scientists and becoming such for older scientists. Nevertheless, this does not mean there are not issues with PCR either. There are many nuances to laboratory medicine and clinical diagnostics. Sensitivity and specificity are important factors when running assays to include pre-analytical, analytical, and post-analytical errors.
I agree that a Ct value of >40 was too high for the CDC EUA SARS-COV-2 qRT-PCR. Unfortunately, I was not involved with the design of that assay so I cannot speak definitively about why 40 was chosen. Usually when I design PCR, qPCR, and qRT-PCR assays, I go no more than 35 cycles, but there are scientifically accepted reasons to go 40 cycles. Most of the laboratory directors that I know, to include myself, that had a Ct value >35 on the CDC EUA assay would run the sample on another instrument using a different assay design to verify the positivity. Other SARS-CoV-2 EUA assays developed (by outside companies) went with no more than 35 cycles. By May 2020, most laboratories were only using the CDC EUA assay as a back-up to the other platforms. Checking my numbers, 99.9% of my samples were run using assays other than the CDC EUA assay.
The change that the CDC made in May 2021 was not due to the positivity or the positivity of vaccinated individuals. Rather it was to determine when we needed to do sequencing. Trying to sequencing a genome of a virus with greater than 28 cycles was difficult. That is, by the end of the sequencing, usually the human genome out competed the viral genome, making it difficult to get the required read depth and coverage of the viral genome. So most of labs would reject the sequencing effort if the Ct values were not low.
Quote from: undefinedfailure of the mRNA gene therapies
mRNA vaccines are not gene therapies, so no. There are only 2 gene therapies approved in the US as of 2021. CAR-T therapy is gene therapy for certain types of leukemia and lymphoma. The other is adenovirus vector therapy specifically for retinal dystrophy and spinal muscular atrophy.
As of today...
Phase I: 12
Phase II: 19
Phase III: 21
https://www.gocivilairpatrol.com/covid-19-remobilization
Quote from: Shuman 14 on December 28, 2021, 08:57:13 PMQuote from: jeders on December 27, 2021, 10:02:31 PMYou're done. [ETA] This is in reference ONLY to the user JohnnyD, not the thread as a whole. Please keep the discussion on topic and respectful and we will keep it open.
Jeders,
Respectfully, Capt Thompson is saying there is a morgue where they are "stacking bodies" as if it was a fact, but then he provided no substantiation of the alleged "fact". JohnnyD's request for substantiation shouldn't be grounds for a suspension.
If this "morgue" is actually "stacking bodies", why is it a secret? If it is a "secret", why is a CAP Officer referencing it on an open public forum? For that matter, how would a CAP Officer have knowledge of a "secret" morgue?
I don't think it is unreasonable to request that Capt Thompson cite his source... if he has one.
As stated earlier sir, my wife is an employee of the hospital. Part of her job is patient transport, and she has personally been involved with transport to the morgue.
The fact that hospital morgues are over capacity is hardly newsworthy anymore. When COVID first appeared in 2020 and most local hospitals were bringing in reefers to hold overflow, it was on every news station. Almost two years later an over capacity morgue at a public hospital gets no media coverage. That doesn't make it false because the media no longer chooses to cover it.
Quote from: Eclipse on December 27, 2021, 10:31:06 PMAt this point, it doesn't matter here "why" NHQ has chosen a number and a vector,
it's just downstream CC's job to salute and execute.
^^ Worth repeating. You folks can cite this study and that study all day long and for the purposes of us rank and file members, none of it means jack. Just spinning your wheels.
Talk of vaccines and studies in CAPTalk is just a waste of bandwidth. We don't make decisions.
Its all "above our pay grade" as military folks tell me. We are just suppose to do as ordered from above, and not ask questions or argue with commands coming down from above.
Quote from: etodd on December 29, 2021, 02:43:58 AMIts all "above our pay grade" as military folks tell me. We are just suppose to do as ordered from above, and not ask questions or argue with commands coming down from above.
Unfortunately for this view we are not a military organization, but a civilian one. We can (and do) provide input and express our opinions on policy decisions made at the national levels, up the chain TO the national level. Discussions such as this with peers outside our normal circles help (in some cases) to focus our thoughts. The put up and shut up attitude will only further contribute to the decline of CAP.
I for one appreciate the opposing viewpoints and comments (and am still digesting/reading), thanks.
V/r
Spam
Quick edit: GA Wing is moving back to Phase 1 on Monday (with the approval of NHQ that is).
Quick edit2: I am pressing forward as an IC with a late JAN21 DREX exercise, which I'd planned to be minimal ICP staffing in the event of a Phase 1 retreat... we think we've demonstrated that we can safely operate under Ph1, so we're executing.
Quote from: AirDX on December 31, 2021, 06:36:07 PMQuote from: etodd on December 29, 2021, 02:43:58 AMIts all "above our pay grade" as military folks tell me. We are just suppose to do as ordered from above, and not ask questions or argue with commands coming down from above.
Unfortunately for this view we are not a military organization, but a civilian one. We can (and do) provide input and express our opinions on policy decisions made at the national levels, up the chain TO the national level. Discussions such as this with peers outside our normal circles help (in some cases) to focus our thoughts. The put up and shut up attitude will only further contribute to the decline of CAP.
Those who know my posts here over the years would realize the tongue-in-cheek and satire this post was. We have no standards. One thread, we are told to follow the regs and do as we are told. Then the next thread topic, its all over the place.
Quote from: Capt Thompson on December 29, 2021, 01:08:44 AMQuote from: Shuman 14 on December 28, 2021, 08:57:13 PMQuote from: jeders on December 27, 2021, 10:02:31 PMYou're done. [ETA] This is in reference ONLY to the user JohnnyD, not the thread as a whole. Please keep the discussion on topic and respectful and we will keep it open.
Jeders,
Respectfully, Capt Thompson is saying there is a morgue where they are "stacking bodies" as if it was a fact, but then he provided no substantiation of the alleged "fact". JohnnyD's request for substantiation shouldn't be grounds for a suspension.
If this "morgue" is actually "stacking bodies", why is it a secret? If it is a "secret", why is a CAP Officer referencing it on an open public forum? For that matter, how would a CAP Officer have knowledge of a "secret" morgue?
I don't think it is unreasonable to request that Capt Thompson cite his source... if he has one.
As stated earlier sir, my wife is an employee of the hospital. Part of her job is patient transport, and she has personally been involved with transport to the morgue.
The fact that hospital morgues are over capacity is hardly newsworthy anymore. When COVID first appeared in 2020 and most local hospitals were bringing in reefers to hold overflow, it was on every news station. Almost two years later an over capacity morgue at a public hospital gets no media coverage. That doesn't make it false because the media no longer chooses to cover it.
It does, however, make it anecdotal rather than a data point that can be used for any realistic level of discussion.
Quote from: Holding Pattern on January 03, 2022, 09:23:57 AMQuote from: Capt Thompson on December 29, 2021, 01:08:44 AMQuote from: Shuman 14 on December 28, 2021, 08:57:13 PMQuote from: jeders on December 27, 2021, 10:02:31 PMYou're done. [ETA] This is in reference ONLY to the user JohnnyD, not the thread as a whole. Please keep the discussion on topic and respectful and we will keep it open.
Jeders,
Respectfully, Capt Thompson is saying there is a morgue where they are "stacking bodies" as if it was a fact, but then he provided no substantiation of the alleged "fact". JohnnyD's request for substantiation shouldn't be grounds for a suspension.
If this "morgue" is actually "stacking bodies", why is it a secret? If it is a "secret", why is a CAP Officer referencing it on an open public forum? For that matter, how would a CAP Officer have knowledge of a "secret" morgue?
I don't think it is unreasonable to request that Capt Thompson cite his source... if he has one.
As stated earlier sir, my wife is an employee of the hospital. Part of her job is patient transport, and she has personally been involved with transport to the morgue.
The fact that hospital morgues are over capacity is hardly newsworthy anymore. When COVID first appeared in 2020 and most local hospitals were bringing in reefers to hold overflow, it was on every news station. Almost two years later an over capacity morgue at a public hospital gets no media coverage. That doesn't make it false because the media no longer chooses to cover it.
It does, however, make it anecdotal rather than a data point that can be used for any realistic level of discussion.
I'm not a lawyer sir, nor do I play one on TV, but as far as I know (and I'm sure you'll correct me if I'm wrong), anecdotal evidence, even that which is heard secondhand by a witness, is still admissible in court. Not sure I can say the same for Daily Mail (a tabloid) or the Daily Skeptic (which claims to be a forum for experts and non experts alike to publish their views), both of which have been used as "evidence" in this thread.
I've been blessed in that I have the ability to speak with frontline healthcare workers every day, and the recommendations that have been handed down have been very much in line with CDC guidance thus far, as well as the guidance handed down by NHQ. If you feel my wife's firsthand knowledge of her hospital is anecdotal and therefore not worth mentioning, than I can live with that and won't mention it again, but it doesn't change the fact that agree or not, we need to take the direction from NHQ and enforce it at our local meetings, even if it's at odds with the Daily Sceptic.
We're back to the morality of this subject...
Let me rehash my points from a previous thread (I believe it's now locked after this got relatively personal, just as this thread is starting to turn to)---
There is an argument here as to whether there is a moral obligation (i.e., "We have a responsibility") to shut down/demobilize versus a compliance-based obligation (i.e., "The government says we have to"). The problem with the moral side of it is that not everyone does agree on the best approach. This is where you have the membership in-fighting because we don't all agree on the same method, and we're all pretending like we're data experts or that we work in it day-to-day on the frontlines, or that we know someone who does. Mileage varies here.
And what we're facing with the compliance side is that it's very easy in states that are in shutdown mode for CAP members to have to deal with it. When the state says, "everyone," well, we're part of the everyone, right?
But what happens when the state didn't say anything and there are no statewide restrictions? In this case, when CAP says "We're shutting down" but not the state, now we're facing that question of Why is CAP doing this? No matter how you twist it ("We're smarter than the state...we're being proactive;" whatever it is), a good chunk of the member corps wants to know why CAP is closing up for x-period of time but not the schools, or gyms, or offices, etc.
My wing is back to virtual meetings. No, it's not up for me to debate nor be noncompliant with my leaders to refuse to obey and just do my own thing because I'm smarter and have a better grasp on reality. It doesn't work like that. But, regardless, I'm in a state that has imposed no additional restrictions and hasn't since June. Our members can go to school, they can play full contact sports, they can go to the rec center, colleges are open, restaurants are open...you don't even have to put on a face mask by law; it's up to local businesses to decide that. But we can't meet in person. Now, the reasons for the decision aside, our members don't understand it because it's not the same approach that the state took.
So it's up to us lower-level leaders to explain to our members that we don't get to make the policy and that we don't get to undermine our superior officers' decisions just because we don't like it. And it's up to us to get creative and innovative to maintain member morale while we're closed up. It's also up to our leaders to seek our input and advice from the field and make decisions that will balance the safety of persons with the retention of our member corps because we are facing a large body of people who now see CAP as "closed" while everything else is open. Heck, a number of people just got back from vacation for the holidays (or are still out for a few more days). You can chastise them all you want to say that they're not making ethical or moral decisions to "stop the spread," but nobody is mandating that they can't outside of CAP. And CAP is neither their parent nor their governor.
If CAP is the most restrictive set up rules, people will find something else that isn't so restrictive. The member roster didn't shrink because 50% of our members died over the past two years. It shrunk because people left and didn't come back because there is still life beyond CAP when CAP is the first to close up and the last to reopen.
In my area, there are now 38 cases with the China Virus in the regional hospital. 90 days ago that number was 130+.
(Source: https://cdapress.com/news/2022/jan/03/covid-19-watch/)
Case rates are WAY up, death rates and hospitalizations WAY down.
It appears the virus is now endemic and ought to be treated with a heavy dose of SUBSIDIARITY. Let local unit CCs make the calls.
Quote from: TheSkyHornet on January 03, 2022, 02:57:23 PMSo it's up to us lower-level leaders to explain to our members that we don't get to make the policy and that we don't get to undermine our superior officers' decisions just because we don't like it. And it's up to us to get creative and innovative to maintain member morale while we're closed up. It's also up to our leaders to seek our input and advice from the field and make decisions that will balance the safety of persons with the retention of our member corps because we are facing a large body of people who now see CAP as "closed" while everything else is open. Heck, a number of people just got back from vacation for the holidays (or are still out for a few more days). You can chastise them all you want to say that they're not making ethical or moral decisions to "stop the spread," but nobody is mandating that they can't outside of CAP. And CAP is neither their parent nor their governor.
Over 600 days of doing just that, and our unit had double-digit growth. Not sure how much longer that will be true. Seeing really valuable members drop.
BTW the overall data suggests that hospitals were not "overwhelmed" over the last two years, see:
https://www.census.gov/econ/currentdata/dbsearch?program=QSS&startYear=2010&endYear=2020&categories=622A&dataType=DISC&geoLevel=US¬Adjusted=1&submit=GET+DATA&releaseScheduleId=
Quote from: TheSkyHornet on January 03, 2022, 02:57:23 PMWe're back to the morality of this subject...
Let me rehash my points from a previous thread (I believe it's now locked after this got relatively personal, just as this thread is starting to turn to)---
There is an argument here as to whether there is a moral obligation (i.e., "We have a responsibility") to shut down/demobilize versus a compliance-based obligation (i.e., "The government says we have to"). The problem with the moral side of it is that not everyone does agree on the best approach. This is where you have the membership in-fighting because we don't all agree on the same method, and we're all pretending like we're data experts or that we work in it day-to-day on the frontlines, or that we know someone who does. Mileage varies here.
And what we're facing with the compliance side is that it's very easy in states that are in shutdown mode for CAP members to have to deal with it. When the state says, "everyone," well, we're part of the everyone, right?
But what happens when the state didn't say anything and there are no statewide restrictions? In this case, when CAP says "We're shutting down" but not the state, now we're facing that question of Why is CAP doing this? No matter how you twist it ("We're smarter than the state...we're being proactive;" whatever it is), a good chunk of the member corps wants to know why CAP is closing up for x-period of time but not the schools, or gyms, or offices, etc.
My wing is back to virtual meetings. No, it's not up for me to debate nor be noncompliant with my leaders to refuse to obey and just do my own thing because I'm smarter and have a better grasp on reality. It doesn't work like that. But, regardless, I'm in a state that has imposed no additional restrictions and hasn't since June. Our members can go to school, they can play full contact sports, they can go to the rec center, colleges are open, restaurants are open...you don't even have to put on a face mask by law; it's up to local businesses to decide that. But we can't meet in person. Now, the reasons for the decision aside, our members don't understand it because it's not the same approach that the state took.
So it's up to us lower-level leaders to explain to our members that we don't get to make the policy and that we don't get to undermine our superior officers' decisions just because we don't like it. And it's up to us to get creative and innovative to maintain member morale while we're closed up. It's also up to our leaders to seek our input and advice from the field and make decisions that will balance the safety of persons with the retention of our member corps because we are facing a large body of people who now see CAP as "closed" while everything else is open. Heck, a number of people just got back from vacation for the holidays (or are still out for a few more days). You can chastise them all you want to say that they're not making ethical or moral decisions to "stop the spread," but nobody is mandating that they can't outside of CAP. And CAP is neither their parent nor their governor.
If CAP is the most restrictive set up rules, people will find something else that isn't so restrictive. The member roster didn't shrink because 50% of our members died over the past two years. It shrunk because people left and didn't come back because there is still life beyond CAP when CAP is the first to close up and the last to reopen.
I must have missed the other post, but these are all excellent points. Unfortunately it's a rock and a hard place scenario, do we open back up to be like everyone else, and risk the health of our members, or stay closed to protect our members and lose a significant portion of them due to the fact that "everyone else is open." I wish there was a good "one size fits all" answer to this problem, but unfortunately there isn't.
Edited to correct a typo
Quote from: JohhnyD on January 03, 2022, 03:53:41 PMBTW the overall data suggests that hospitals were not "overwhelmed" over the last two years, see:
https://www.census.gov/econ/currentdata/dbsearch?program=QSS&startYear=2010&endYear=2020&categories=622A&dataType=DISC&geoLevel=US¬Adjusted=1&submit=GET+DATA&releaseScheduleId=
My statement may be anecdotal, and I apologize ahead for that fact, but could it be that the total discharges were trending down about 1k per quarter, because hospitals stopped accepting non-emergent patents, cancelled elective surgeries etc. I know my local hospital had 4 floors dedicated to COVID for most of 2020 and into early 2021, which took away from the amount of non-emergent cases they normally would have treated, and then discharged, so these numbers completely support the statement that many hospitals were overwhelmed by COVID patients.
Quote from: Capt Thompson on January 03, 2022, 03:57:05 PMI must have missed the other post, but these are all excellent points. Unfortunately it's a rock and a hard place scenario, do we open back up to be like everyone else, and risk the health of our members, ...
Or we could open up and let MEMBERS and local unit CCs make these calls, based on their own risk assessments.
Quote from: Capt Thompson on January 03, 2022, 03:57:05 PM...or stay closed to protect our members and lose a significant portion of them due to the fact that "everyone else is open."
Really? We risk the loss of "a significant portion" of our membership from a virus that is over 99% survivable?
Quote from: Capt Thompson on January 03, 2022, 04:05:49 PMso these numbers completely support the statement that many hospitals were overwhelmed by COVID patients.
How?
And one more news article:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10364503/Denmark-health-chief-says-Omicron-bringing-END-pandemic.html
Denmark health chief says Omicron is bringing about the END of the pandemic and 'we will have our normal lives back in two months'
Tyra Grove Krause is the chief epidemiologist at Denmark's State Serum Institute
Speaking Monday, she said Omicron's hospitalisation risk was half that of Delta
This, she said, could spell the end of the pandemic in around two months
And one more regards risks to our cadets:
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57766717
The overall risk of children becoming severely ill or dying from Covid is extremely low, a new analysis of Covid infection data confirms.
0.000002 risk for those under 18.
Quote from: dwb on January 03, 2022, 04:14:57 PMQuote from: JohhnyD on January 03, 2022, 03:50:16 PMChina Virus
Seriously?
Yes. That is where it came from. Sort of like the Spanish Influenza, except more accurate.
Except this one has an internationally designated name: COVID-19. Or the novel coronavirus if you want to sound fancy.
But you already knew that. The thing about dog whistles is that they're easy to deny.
The source of the virus is irrelevant to this discussion.
What is relevent:
Quote from: Eclipse on December 29, 2021, 12:25:01 AMAs of today...
Phase I: 12
Phase II: 19
Phase III: 21
https://www.gocivilairpatrol.com/covid-19-remobilization
As of today:
Phase I: 20
Phase II: 23
Phase III: 9
Quote from: dwb on January 03, 2022, 04:30:03 PMExcept this one has an internationally designated name: COVID-19. Or the novel coronavirus if you want to sound fancy.
But you already knew that. The thing about dog whistles is that they're easy to deny.
Yep. And what respect is shown by using the phrase "dog-whistle" when I use a colloquialism instead of an "internationally designated name"?
Quote from: JohhnyD on January 03, 2022, 04:06:26 PMQuote from: Capt Thompson on January 03, 2022, 03:57:05 PM...or stay closed to protect our members and lose a significant portion of them due to the fact that "everyone else is open."
Really? We risk the loss of "a significant portion" of our membership from a virus that is over 99% survivable?
Please read my statement a little more clearly sir.
Quote from: Capt Thompson on January 03, 2022, 05:04:14 PMQuote from: JohhnyD on January 03, 2022, 04:06:26 PMQuote from: Capt Thompson on January 03, 2022, 03:57:05 PM...or stay closed to protect our members and lose a significant portion of them due to the fact that "everyone else is open."
Really? We risk the loss of "a significant portion" of our membership from a virus that is over 99% survivable?
Please read my statement a little more clearly sir.
Sorry. So how does cutting our membership in half help us?
Quote from: JohhnyD on January 03, 2022, 04:07:15 PMQuote from: Capt Thompson on January 03, 2022, 04:05:49 PMso these numbers completely support the statement that many hospitals were overwhelmed by COVID patients.
How?
If hospitals are denying non-emergent patients, and cancelling elective surgeries to make room for an overflow of COVID patients, most of which spend a lot more time in the hospital than an average non-emergent patient or elective surgery, discharges would trend down.
Quote from: dwb on January 03, 2022, 04:14:57 PMQuote from: JohhnyD on January 03, 2022, 03:50:16 PMChina Virus
Seriously?
German Measles
Spanish Flu
Hong Kong Flu
Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)
So "China Virus" is closer to what COVID should be traditionally named... regardless how "offended" Xi Jinping claims to be. Just saying.
Quote from: JohhnyD on January 03, 2022, 05:07:07 PMQuote from: Capt Thompson on January 03, 2022, 05:04:14 PMQuote from: JohhnyD on January 03, 2022, 04:06:26 PMQuote from: Capt Thompson on January 03, 2022, 03:57:05 PM...or stay closed to protect our members and lose a significant portion of them due to the fact that "everyone else is open."
Really? We risk the loss of "a significant portion" of our membership from a virus that is over 99% survivable?
Please read my statement a little more clearly sir.
Sorry. So how does cutting our membership in half help us?
Never said it did, if it helped, it wouldn't be a rock and a hard place scenario would it? I also didn't say we would intentionally cut anyone, I said we would lose a significant portion if we couldn't open up like everyone else.
Quote from: undefined"stay closed to protect our members and lose a significant portion of them due to the fact that "everyone else is open."
And we're done. JohnnyD (and others) couldn't keep it respectful and factual, so like so many other worthwhile conversations on CAPTalk that get taken over by personal attacks, it's getting locked.
If you can't show each other respect and command decency, please show yourselves to the door.