Recent membership trends

[RiverAux]

Anyone seen data on CAP membership trends over the last five years?  Our wing has seen a significant drop over the last few.  The trend has primarily been seen in a loss of cadets, but even senior membership has dropped by almost 10%. 

[jhighman]

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, volunteerism by the average American is decreasing across the whole spectrum compared with even ten years ago. The good news is that these things tend to be cyclical, even for CAP. But you're right... Even a casual glance at the population figures on eservices suggests we are in a decline. I recall noting in late 2012 that our total numbers were a little over 62,000 and each month since that number seems to drop a few hundred.

This isn't a unique problem for CAP though. Even the armed services have trouble recruiting and retaining personnel, despite throwing countless resources at the problem.

[Live2Learn]

A 10% drop in the past decade is trivial compared to the huge decline in membership experienced between the 60's and 80's.  At least in my CAP wing the present day number of squadrons pales compared to the days before the great famine.  CAP is, I think, struggling to communicate relevancy for both adult and cadet members. 

[Garibaldi]

A 10% drop in the past decade is trivial compared to the huge decline in membership experienced between the 60's and 80's.  At least in my CAP wing the present day number of squadrons pales compared to the days before the great famine.  CAP is, I think, struggling to communicate relevancy for both adult and cadet members.

That, and the general war-weariness of the general public. I would also think the GWOT would have a negative effect on our members, as anyone wearing a uniform these days seems to be a target of opportunity. Just my .02

[NIN]

I happen to be looking at those numbers right now, as I have the presentation I made to the Wing Commander's Course last month up on my screen. How timely. (I have several years of data, but not 5 years worth for all at the moment)


(you can also see this in eServices)

[sardak]

Here's a chart showing monthly membership for the last 15 years. In answer to the OP's question, both senior and cadet membership is down over the last five years. In fact, senior membership is the lowest it's been during this span. Cadet membership almost reached its peak in 2012, but is now closer to the bottom than the top.

Mike

[RiverAux]

That, and the general war-weariness of the general public. I would also think the GWOT would have a negative effect on our members, as anyone wearing a uniform these days seems to be a target of opportunity. Just my .02

I don't know about that.  Sardaks chart may actually show otherwise-- while senior strength was more or less constant since 2005, cadets have been much more cyclical, with the low of cadet membership being at the around the time when the Iraq war was at its worst, but bounced back starting in 2009 through 2013 and jthen went off a cliff (well, steep hill).  That actually doesn't match well with any war weariness, at least not over the last 5 years. 

[ZigZag911]

I wonder whether the GWOT had much impact on our declining membership.

It is certainly possible, but, as I recall, even the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks only had a minimal impact (positively) on membership.

Certainly the decline in volunteerism affects CAP as much as any organization.

The complexity of CAP, at the local level, also does not help. My hope is that the recently announced revision of all regulations will do something to make a CAP flight or squadron a more straightforward group to run. Right now we try to have subject matter experts for every staff function at every organizational level. Ultimately this leads to a handful of senior members wearing multiple hats (often at multiple levels of command).

Wing Banker should have led to some easing of what is required from a local unit in this area, but, in my view, it has not had that effect.

Centralization is certainly not the answer to all problems, but it could relieve some stress on overburdened members.

We ought to be looking at areas where neighboring units could share resources, for instance, a small DDR, Recruiting or PAO team of a few seniors (to name several possibilities) share among the squadron in a group or a geographically proximate area.

We should be looking at other ways to consolidate or eliminate staff functions at squadron level.

While we're at it, might be a good idea to raise the topic of the optimal size of wings.

How can a wing  with 50-60 subordinate units, or 50K plus square miles of area,  possibly exercise reasonable span of control?

How can a wing that, in any other state, would be too small to form a group (that is, less than five squadrons) possibly recruit and retain sufficient seniors to staff a wing HQ effectively?

I know we have always operated under the "State=Wing" formula...I just question whether "that's the way we've always done it" remains sufficient justification for the way we carry out our missions/

[THRAWN]

I wonder whether the GWOT had much impact on our declining membership.

It is certainly possible, but, as I recall, even the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks only had a minimal impact (positively) on membership.

Certainly the decline in volunteerism affects CAP as much as any organization.

The complexity of CAP, at the local level, also does not help. My hope is that the recently announced revision of all regulations will do something to make a CAP flight or squadron a more straightforward group to run. Right now we try to have subject matter experts for every staff function at every organizational level. Ultimately this leads to a handful of senior members wearing multiple hats (often at multiple levels of command).

Wing Banker should have led to some easing of what is required from a local unit in this area, but, in my view, it has not had that effect.

Centralization is certainly not the answer to all problems, but it could relieve some stress on overburdened members.

We ought to be looking at areas where neighboring units could share resources, for instance, a small DDR, Recruiting or PAO team of a few seniors (to name several possibilities) share among the squadron in a group or a geographically proximate area.

We should be looking at other ways to consolidate or eliminate staff functions at squadron level.

While we're at it, might be a good idea to raise the topic of the optimal size of wings.

How can a wing  with 50-60 subordinate units, or 50K plus square miles of area,  possibly exercise reasonable span of control?

How can a wing that, in any other state, would be too small to form a group (that is, less than five squadrons) possibly recruit and retain sufficient seniors to staff a wing HQ effectively?

I know we have always operated under the "State=Wing" formula...I just question whether "that's the way we've always done it" remains sufficient justification for the way we carry out our missions/

After 9/11, we lost a few before we gained a few. I recall a few qualified, experienced and well trained ES types that "turned in their wings" like Cougar after the attacks. Guess they realized that actual ES/EM/DR/CD work is dirty, dangerous work. We did get a small bump in numbers after that. Mostly, it was the revival of the CD spirit, but it didn't last too long.

As to this question "How can a wing  with 50-60 subordinate units, or 50K plus square miles of area,  possibly exercise reasonable span of control?", why not? The DoD does it all the time, and does it well. There are enough levels of command that are available to make the SOC controllable. I do agree that it may be time to look at the structure and organization of CAP. Making it easier to share resources among wings and regions, especially in geographically crowded regions (looking at you, NER...) might make the organization flow a bit easier.

[THRAWN]

Here's a chart showing monthly membership for the last 15 years. In answer to the OP's question, both senior and cadet membership is down over the last five years. In fact, senior membership is the lowest it's been during this span. Cadet membership almost reached its peak in 2012, but is now closer to the bottom than the top.

Mike

The economic environment has a lot to do with that. People spend less time giving their time away when they're having a hard time feeding the rugrats...

[arajca]

I know we have always operated under the "State=Wing" formula...I just question whether "that's the way we've always done it" remains sufficient justification for the way we carry out our missions/

"That's the way we've always done it" isn't the justification. The differences, sometimes significant, in state laws is, from what I've been told, the primary driving force behind State=Wing. Not to mention the funding some wings get from their states.

[ZigZag911]

I know we have always operated under the "State=Wing" formula...I just question whether "that's the way we've always done it" remains sufficient justification for the way we carry out our missions/

"That's the way we've always done it" isn't the justification. The differences, sometimes significant, in state laws is, from what I've been told, the primary driving force behind State=Wing. Not to mention the funding some wings get from their states.

Some how the Coast Guard Auxiliary makes it work...their methods, particularly in view of their very close wrking relationship with active duty USCG, might mean that what they do couldn't work for us...but I think it's worth a look.

If this has been considered in recent years by National or BOG, I haven't heard about it.

[FW]

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, volunteerism by the average American is decreasing across the whole spectrum compared with even ten years ago. The good news is that these things tend to be cyclical, even for CAP. But you're right... Even a casual glance at the population figures on eservices suggests we are in a decline. I recall noting in late 2012 that our total numbers were a little over 62,000 and each month since that number seems to drop a few hundred.

This isn't a unique problem for CAP though. Even the armed services have trouble recruiting and retaining personnel, despite throwing countless resources at the problem.

Our membership numbers have been oscillating between 56 and 58 thousand members for the last 40 or so years.  There have been "spikes" (as in after 9/11), but the raw numbers have been stable.  That being said, we do have a problem retaining new members for that 1st renewal.  Until that is addressed, we will IMHO continue to stay at present levels.  There is also the matter of membership category figures.  My cursory search of the data shows the ratio of active to patron/legislative/CSM/AEMs changing drastically.  Statistically, I don't know if our mission effectiveness is threatened, however I think it is a concern.

On a wing level, things are starting to concern me.  My wing has lost over 25% of its membership in the last few years...

[Holding Pattern]

Sometimes I think captalk shares some of the blame on this. People research CAP online and discover a bunch of people more obsessed with minutia instead of execution.

[TheSkyHornet]

Sometimes I think captalk shares some of the blame on this. People research CAP online and discover a bunch of people more obsessed with minutia instead of execution.

Really, I think CAP Talk, while informative, should be closed off to the public's eye if you aren't logged in. It's a lot of gouge and scuttlebutt that needs to be kept out of the public feed since really all of this is unofficial information, no matter how beneficial it may be to some viewers.

Anyway, keep in mind that we have a lot more organizations popping up all the time that makes it even more difficult for us to compete with. CAP also has not done the greatest job, maybe at the group and squadron levels in some areas, getting cadets more involved in the CAP missions, particularly in Emergency Services. A lot of squadrons act like a day camp and don't utilize the potential of cadets.

I think CAP has spent a lot of time marketing the hobby side of the organization (and I consider AE to be more of a hobby for cadets and seniors) than the training and mission focus. Not to mention, the consistency between squadrons is minimal. How many times do we have discussions about "How does your squadron do it?" There are a lot of people in leadership positions who aren't subject matter experts, and it causes a lot of dissension among subordinates and prospective members who walk in and see a group of people who really aren't on their A-Game.

Here's a chart showing monthly membership for the last 15 years. In answer to the OP's question, both senior and cadet membership is down over the last five years. In fact, senior membership is the lowest it's been during this span. Cadet membership almost reached its peak in 2012, but is now closer to the bottom than the top.

Mike

The economic environment has a lot to do with that. People spend less time giving their time away when they're having a hard time feeding the rugrats...

I wouldn't say it's just the economic environment we have across the country. In CAP alone, it's a very expensive organization to be a part of. Granted, all organizations have costs, but in CAP, we still need to pay for nearly everything we work with, from membership dues, to squadron dues (if applicable), to uniforms, to field gear that individuals may purchase, not to mention the constant need for fundraising at the squadron level which can take a bit of your own wallet even thought you're essentially fundraising for yourself/your squadron.

[THRAWN]

Sometimes I think captalk shares some of the blame on this. People research CAP online and discover a bunch of people more obsessed with minutia instead of execution.

Really, I think CAP Talk, while informative, should be closed off to the public's eye if you aren't logged in. It's a lot of gouge and scuttlebutt that needs to be kept out of the public feed since really all of this is unofficial information, no matter how beneficial it may be to some viewers.

Anyway, keep in mind that we have a lot more organizations popping up all the time that makes it even more difficult for us to compete with. CAP also has not done the greatest job, maybe at the group and squadron levels in some areas, getting cadets more involved in the CAP missions, particularly in Emergency Services. A lot of squadrons act like a day camp and don't utilize the potential of cadets.

I think CAP has spent a lot of time marketing the hobby side of the organization (and I consider AE to be more of a hobby for cadets and seniors) than the training and mission focus. Not to mention, the consistency between squadrons is minimal. How many times do we have discussions about "How does your squadron do it?" There are a lot of people in leadership positions who aren't subject matter experts, and it causes a lot of dissension among subordinates and prospective members who walk in and see a group of people who really aren't on their A-Game.

Here's a chart showing monthly membership for the last 15 years. In answer to the OP's question, both senior and cadet membership is down over the last five years. In fact, senior membership is the lowest it's been during this span. Cadet membership almost reached its peak in 2012, but is now closer to the bottom than the top.

Mike

The economic environment has a lot to do with that. People spend less time giving their time away when they're having a hard time feeding the rugrats...

I wouldn't say it's just the economic environment we have across the country. In CAP alone, it's a very expensive organization to be a part of. Granted, all organizations have costs, but in CAP, we still need to pay for nearly everything we work with, from membership dues, to squadron dues (if applicable), to uniforms, to field gear that individuals may purchase, not to mention the constant need for fundraising at the squadron level which can take a bit of your own wallet even thought you're essentially fundraising for yourself/your squadron.

So do the Boy and Girl Scouts, some volunteer police and fire departments, organized sports, and any other "recreational" organization. People are not interested in spending money on volunteer organizations. Why? Because of the economic environment...

[RiverAux]

Our membership numbers have been oscillating between 56 and 58 thousand members for the last 40 or so years.  There have been "spikes" (as in after 9/11), but the raw numbers have been stable. 

Just because we've gone up and down in the past doesn't mean that we're fated to go up again. 

[FW]

Our membership numbers have been oscillating between 56 and 58 thousand members for the last 40 or so years.  There have been "spikes" (as in after 9/11), but the raw numbers have been stable. 

Just because we've gone up and down in the past doesn't mean that we're fated to go up again.

I agree.  That's why we "hired" NIN to fix our problems.  LOL.  My biggest concern is with the large decline in active participating members vs. patrons, CSMs and AEM's.  I'm not sure it means much, however when we are below 20k "A's", I would definitely take notice.

[RiverAux]

I wouldn't be very surprised if the decline in senior membership is linked pretty directly to the decline in cadet membership.  When we've got fewer cadets, we've also get fewer cadet parents that join CAP to participate. 

Granted, cadet parent members haven't always been the most reliable for long term membership, but you get enough of them that decide to stick around after their kid leaves to be helpful.

[lordmonar]

One part of the decline in Senior membership can be attributed to the removal of private own aircraft on missions and exercises.

Once we closed off the tap to free flying....a lot o members left.

Add to that that number of seniors who only joined because of their cadets and we get the double whammy.

Having said that.

The questions is........Is the decline in senior membership an issue?

I ask that because unlike say the USAF where force strength is driven my mission needs......CAP has not done a very good job defining what our force strength needs to be.

How many pilots do we need?
How many Observers, Scanners, Photographers?
How many IC/FLM/FSC/PAO/et al do we need?

How deep should our market penetration in the Cadet Program be?
How many CP officers do we need for a given size of a cadet unit?

How many outside AE presentations do we need to do...and how many AEOs do we need to do it.

We shot gun our recruiting and put on our programs with very little guidance on what it means to be doing well with regards to a particular mission or task.

So yes....we can be worried that our numbers are shrinking.   But I can't see if anyone has a real good idea if that is a bad thing or just a thing.