ADS-B OUT, NORDO, and midair collisions

The FAA recently released a legal opinion about exemptions from the ADS-B OUT mandate which comes into effect on 1 Jan 2020.  The letter clarifies that all aircraft that were originally produced under a TC that did not require an electrical system would be exempt, regardless of whether a battery was later added.  See the attached letter.  Of course, to operate in Class B or C (or in D) would require special permission for each instance.  As more aircraft are equipped with ADS-B OUT we might enjoy the delusion of great situational awareness by maintaining constant watch of our ADS-B IN display...  but 'taint so.  FWIW, NTSB midair accident data for the last 20 years show about 1 accident per year in the traffic pattern of non-towered airports where at least one of the involved aircraft was a FW powered NORDO machine.  A couple of additional accidents involving NORDO aircraft occurred in cruise flight.   It looks like See and Avoid is still the first line of defence, and will remain so for a long time. 

I recently added a Stratus II to make my iPad Foreflight fully functional. Really exciting on my first trip through Atlanta Bravo to see all the traffic filling my screen.  But then I started noting how many planes I was seeing out the window that were NOT showing up on my iPad. 

When we got TCAS on the C-141 it scared the crap out of us showing all of that traffic that we never knew was there!

Even more so at night, when you see all those nav lights out there with nothing on the screen.

I recently added a Stratus II to make my iPad Foreflight fully functional. Really exciting on my first trip through Atlanta Bravo to see all the traffic filling my screen.  But then I started noting how many planes I was seeing out the window that were NOT showing up on my iPad. 

Even with ADS-B & TIS-B... there's still a lot of untargeted metal in the sky. Should never get too comfortable with what's on the screens. Even so, I do notice that my traffic scan is substandard when my attention is being pulled towards the glass...