Reno Air Races - P-51 Crash in front of the Grandstand

[a2capt]

Oy vey..


Reno, Nevada (CNN) -- "Mass casualties" were reported at an air show after a plane crashed Friday into the box seat area in front of a grandstand at the National Championship Air Races and Air Show in Reno, Nevada, a spokesman for the show told CNN.

Mike Draper said he's been told there are "likely fatalities," but it has not been determined how many or who they may be.
The pilot, identified as Jimmy Leeward, a real estate developer from Ocala, Florida, was likely killed in the crash, the show said in a statement. He was flying a P-51 Mustang.


http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/09/16/nevada.plane.crash/index.html

[Eclipse]

AJC reporting 3 dead, 56 injured.

http://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/3-dead-56-injured-1182917.html

I am no fan of air shows, and this risk is the main reason.

[a2capt]

..and the CEO so far is saying he mis-spoke earlier and clarified that the pilot was 74, not 80.

So far, they're saying two + the pilot confirmed killed.

[Thrashed]

I just read 12 dead and 70 injured. I don't know details, but 74 or 80 year olds shouldn't be racing or flying P51's. What is the cutoff age to fly in the military and why? This is like the 74 year old that hits the gas instead of the brake and plows into a crowd with a car. Add a few thousand people and a P51. I've flown with too many old pilots that scared me to death. The first one was at Reno. I took the controls.  I never flew with him again.

[Ron1319]

Those numbers see a bit conservative based on the video on Youtube.  I know a lot of people that were planning to attend this weekend.  Today was just qualifying.  I read something saying mechanical failure and not pilot error.  Based on the video I'd say that is likely as the plane comes into the video in a steep dive.

[Buzz]

I just read 12 dead and 70 injured. I don't know details, but 74 or 80 year olds shouldn't be racing or flying P51's. What is the cutoff age to fly in the military and why? This is like the 74 year old that hits the gas instead of the brake and plows into a crowd with a car.

No, this is like the accelerator jamming -- age had nothing to do with it.  From where I was standing -- 200 feet from the impact point -- it was clear that there was a control-system problem.  The plane was inverted and the pilot was fighting to force the nose away from the grandstands, and he almost made it.

As I type, the local Civil Air Patrol squadron is serving hamburgers to responders, and they will be doing so through the night, serving breakfast in the morning.  WCSO had no provision in their plan for feeding personnel, but CAP had a breakfast/burger booth only 250 feet from the impact point, and even though they had already closed, once they saw the need they relit the grill and took on coordination of feeding efforts as others began to bring water, coffee, etc.

[bosshawk]

As of about 2230 Pacific time, CNN was reporting three known dead and 54 injured.

Thrash: as far as I know, the military has no mandatory age limit on pilots.  Of course, retirement has a habit of removing folks from the military after either 20 or 30 years of service.  I hit mandatory retirement at 51, certainly an age when plenty of airline pilots are still flying.

I agree that at age 74, reflexes are certainly slowing down.  74 was the announced age of the pilot.

[PHall]

As of about 2230 Pacific time, CNN was reporting three known dead and 54 injured.

Thrash: as far as I know, the military has no mandatory age limit on pilots.  Of course, retirement has a habit of removing folks from the military after either 20 or 30 years of service.  I hit mandatory retirement at 51, certainly an age when plenty of airline pilots are still flying.

I agree that at age 74, reflexes are certainly slowing down.  74 was the announced age of the pilot.

The only mandatory retirement age in the military is 60. And General Officers are routinely granted waivers.

[Hardshell Clam]

Only a few things are clear right now except folks are dead and more may die from their injuries.

When the crash is fully investigated by the professionals to include the crash and safety investigators along with medical doctors, and then only after all the information is gathered, gone over, correlated and presented, will the cause of the crash be known. 

Until then we need to reserve judgement. I found this out a long time ago early on in my detecting career. "Just the facts sir".

[davidsinn]

It was purely mechanical. He lost the port elevator trim tab.

www.talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=256892&mid=1966082#M1966082

[Paradoc]

There was an almost identical "near miss" in 1998 when Bob Hannah piloting "Voodoo" lost his port-trim tab, pitched up at 10+ g's, and lost consciousness.  He was lucky enough to regain consciousness at 9000 feet and was able to land.

http://www.warbird.com/voodoo.html

[Paradoc]

A well written article from Smithsonian Air & Space reporter who spent the day in the pits at Reno the day of the crash, and points out not one but two prior trim tab failures on P-51's at Reno.
http://www.airspacemag.com/flight-today/Tragedy-at-Reno.html

[A.Member]

There was an almost identical "near miss" in 1998 when Bob Hannah piloting "Voodoo" lost his port-trim tab, pitched up at 10+ g's, and lost consciousness.  He was lucky enough to regain consciousness at 9000 feet and was able to land.

http://www.warbird.com/voodoo.html

That's interesting. 

There is a lot of speculation going around so I'm a bit reluctant to add to it; NTSB will do the fantastic job that they always do.   With that said, I'll share a small portion of text from an e-mail I received from a long time airline and RV4 pilot that was there:

From my perspective, I couldn't even guess...except that I remember thinking that it was a VERY aggressive pitch up (any "mayday" aircraft immediately pitches up out of the race, trading speed for altitude to better the odds of making it back down to a runway).  I will say that I remember wondering if the pilot had lost control (structural failure?) as I watched it pitch and roll, with the aileron excursions, etc.  Impossible, of course, to know just from watching on the ground.  Subsequent still photos are very interesting.  It appears obvious that the elevator trim-tab separated early in this thing.  Also, there are some very clear shots of the aircraft profile...with no sight of the pilot (?!).  In another shot, looking straight up as the airplane was inverted, it almost appears as though the pilot's head (helmet) is all the way forward, against the instrument panel.  This opens up room for LOTS of guess work...

...Bottom line theme:  the airplane appeared to be out of control.

Sounds eerily familiar to Mr. Hannah's situation.  Unfortunately, Mr. Draper didn't have altitude on his side.

Godspeed Mr. Draper and to the others that were killed.

[Buzz]

The big problems with the "unconscious pilot" hypothesis are A), he called a Mayday, B), if he were blacked out, his head would have been back against the helmet pad -- instead, it is not visible in the pics, indicating that he has moved forward and down into the cockpit (which his straps would not allow unless he released the cable reel), and C), the tailwheel didn't extend on it's own, Jimmy has to have hit the lever, which is way forward on the instrument panel.

[Thom]

The big problems with the "unconscious pilot" hypothesis are A), he called a Mayday, B), if he were blacked out, his head would have been back against the helmet pad -- instead, it is not visible in the pics, indicating that he has moved forward and down into the cockpit (which his straps would not allow unless he released the cable reel), and C), the tailwheel didn't extend on it's own, Jimmy has to have hit the lever, which is way forward on the instrument panel.

Not to be a buzzkill, but have you actually read any of the reporting on this incident?

A - There now appears to be no evidence of any Mayday call on any of the recordings of the audio from that day. Speculation is that because his initial departure from the racing line mimicked a 'mayday' pullout, some folks assumed he initiated the maneuver and called Mayday. The NTSB will find out eventually if he did or did not make a call.

B - The early reports (always subject to future revision...) are that the planes telemetry system showed a near-instant 10.2 G load. This will often result in even a prepared pilot having their head dragged down in their lap, much less someone who isn't prepared for it and keeping their spine straight against the seatback.

Additionally, even if he hadn't loosened the straps or unlocked the reel, which many Reno racers do, it is quite easy for large G forces to move you about even in a good harness. Particularly, the high-G helmet in the lap 'slump' can happen with shoulder straps that are anything less than very snug.

C - The tailwheel on a P-51 will fail open after about 7-9 Gs of force. The lock holding it up is only so strong, and only needs to be so strong. Additionally, if he had activated the gear mechanism, the main gear doors would have had plenty of time to try and open, no evidence of which is seen in the photos.

In short, respectfully, please try to gather facts (such as they are known at the time, we all know further analysis might disprove anything we 'know' at this point...) before commenting.

Thanks!




Thom

[RiverAux]

Apparently this incident also caused a major financial hit to the Reno squadron, which apparently gets most of its funding from operating a concession stand there...
http://www.ktvn.com/story/15616368/local-civil-air-patrol-faces-financial-challenge

[N Harmon]

Apparently this incident also caused a major financial hit to the Reno squadron, which apparently gets most of its funding from operating a concession stand there...
http://www.ktvn.com/story/15616368/local-civil-air-patrol-faces-financial-challenge

Thanks for posting. I think I can spare a few bucks.

[Buzz]

Not to be a buzzkill, but have you actually read any of the reporting on this incident?

Yes.  Some of it was even accurate.

I WAS THERE as a Security volunteer and part of the response.  The Ghost was pointed right at me as he came over the top, and the only reason that I am alive to argue about this is because of the adverse yaw which pulled him 200 feet further down the course.  I was directly on the line of impact, but 1/2 second upcourse.

However . . .

A - There now appears to be no evidence of any Mayday call on any of the recordings of the audio from that day.

My attention was first drawn to the Ghost by an announcement from Race Ops Control that "we have a Mayday on the course."  Prior to that instant, I was very busy dealing with the crowd at Ramp Gate 2, which was the closest gate to the impact site.  I looked up (which is where planes go when there is a problem) and there he was.

If not for that Mayday call on our channel, I wouldn't have noticed for several more seconds, rather than watching the last roughly 10 seconds of the flight.

I have never heard of Ops calling a Mayday without being advised by the pilot that there was a problem, except when a plane is already down -- which was not the case this time.  It is, of course, possible, but it's never happened before in any of the years that I've been there, and at the time when the call came from Ops, the Ghost was not in any kind of radical attitude or location.  When I looked up, he looked like most other planes which call Maydays (which is a common event),

We will have to find out why Ops called the Mayday.  If, as you believe, it was because she saw the Ghost come up out of the gaggle, then there may have been no call from Jimmy. 

B - The early reports (always subject to future revision...) are that the planes telemetry system showed a near-instant 10.2 G load. This will often result in even a prepared pilot having their head dragged down in their lap, much less someone who isn't prepared for it and keeping their spine straight against the seatback.

Have you ever flown in a full harness?  I'm not talking about the Chevy-surplus seatbelts in a 182, I'm talking the full 5-point harness, with TWO seat belts, ratchet adjustment, shoulder and anti-submarine straps?  That's what we have in the Decathlon that I'm flying aerobatics in -- at Stead -- and I can tell you that the only way that you can "have your head dragged down into your lap" is if you either loosen the straps or release the cable lock.

Jimmy's spine would have been straight, held there as if he were in an egg carton.

Additionally, even if he hadn't loosened the straps or unlocked the reel, which many Reno racers do,

Citation for this assertion?  Not one of the race pilots that I have known over the years has ever told me he (or she) loosened the harness DURING A RACE.  In fact, it's the opposite -- the Grunt works better if you are held tightly in place, and you have a better feel for the plane when you are solidly connected to your seat.

it is quite easy for large G forces to move you about even in a good harness.

What plane have you been in, where you have been in a "good harness" and found it "quite easy for large G forces to move you about" . . ?

Particularly, the high-G helmet in the lap 'slump' can happen with shoulder straps that are anything less than very snug.

Go watch in-cockpit footage of aerobatics.  If we don't get bounced around in our harnesses in the Lumcevak, a pilot's not going to move much during a Gs-straight-down maneuver such as the barrel roll done by the Ghost.

C - The tailwheel on a P-51 will fail open after about 7-9 Gs of force. 

Citation for this assertion?

The P-51 tailwheel assembly is about 20 - 40 lbs of moving weight (and we can assume that the Ghost was on the low end, with the lightweight tire and strut, because Jimmy and the crew took off every unnecessary ounce).  That's 200 lbs at 10 G.  Even 400 lbs wouldn't be enough to break anything, much less push the tailwheel out against the airflow behind the heat exchangers at 400 knots.

The lock holding it up is only so strong, and only needs to be so strong. Additionally, if he had activated the gear mechanism, the main gear doors would have had plenty of time to try and open, no evidence of which is seen in the photos.

The P-51 gear-down sequence is as follows:

1)  Upon actuation, the hydraulic valves send pressure to the tailwheel piston and the main gear door lock pistons.
2)  Tailwheel lowers, main gear doors unlock, and pressure is sent to the main gear door pistons.
3)  If the airspeed is near or below White Line, the doors open -- if much above White Line, aerodynamic pressure keeps them closed.

Hint: 400 knots is above White Line Speed.

4)  Once the doors open fully (hit the limit switches), pressure is sent to the main gear strut locks, which release the struts.
5)  Once the strut locks hit their limit switches, indicating that the struts are free, pressure is sent to the main gear strut pistons.

If the doors DO NOT come open -- for instance, if they are held by 400-knot, hi-G airflow against the bottom of the wing (see: "Bernoulli Principle") -- the sequence can be manually initiated by using the manual gear release, which pulls the main gear strut locks open, allowing the gear to fall due to gravity and also sends hydraulic pressure to the main gear strut pistons.

To reach this lever, the pilot must release the cable lock and lean forward.

The induced drag of the gear would have slowed the plane significantly, moving the impact point away from the crowd.

Of course, there is the question of why the engine was producing power all the way to impact, and that does give some credence to the unconscious pilot theory.  However, it also is possible that a conscious pilot would want maximum hydraulic power to try to blow the gear down.

In short, respectfully, please try to gather facts (such as they are known at the time, we all know further analysis might disprove anything we 'know' at this point...) before commenting.

I might suggest the same.  Respectfully.

I've been around airplanes since 1965, and around high-performance planes (including the P-51 in several variants) since the mid-1970s.  I don't mean looking at them in museums or from behind a yellow rope, I mean that my fingerprints are flying around in a number of planes and are in a few others which are in museums.  I KNOW about airplanes, how they work, especially the WWII big iron that we were restoring and flying when I was at Chino in the '70s and early '80s.

You know, like the P-51 Mustang.

In short, the observations give room for both possibilities, but lend more credence to a pilot recognizing a problem and taking action to resolve it, and that is how I prefer to see it until that theory is beyond the scope of possibility.  I look forward to learning more and will be following this closely.

BTW, a couple of days ago they had removed most of the chain-link fence with privacy cloth from the ramp.  All that remained was about a 30 x 50 area still closed off.  I'm going to fly tomorrow (WX permitting) and will see if they have opened it the rest of the way.  I'm guessing that they will keep it there for a while (the ramp is big enough to not need the few square feet closed off), until they repair the tarmac.  Right now there are some steel plates covering the hole.

[Ron1319]

Good post.  I've only raced relatively slow cars, but I can definitely affirm that there is such a feeling of safety, security and increased control when you are tightly strapped in to a good racing seat. 

[cadet haag]

geez u think ppl would more be careful