CAP Aircraft Searching for Steve Fossett

[♠SARKID♠]

Bah, thats just an advertising ploy.

[A.Member]

My question is this--how is this effort impacting the actual search effort? Are any of the tagged images proving to be worth following up on in the field, and if so, is that effort diverting assets that would be otherwise engaged in more conventional ways?

Just curious...   

First, I'm not involved with this particular search so I have no direct knowledge of how information is being used and I will not speculate on what they may or may not be doing at that mission base.

That said, I think SARKID's comments aren't that off base when he says it's more about advertising for Google.  SAR is very complex as is the review of satellite imagery (as an example, the DoD has people that train many months to do just this).  As much as I applaud the effort with such tools, they're still too primative to be of any real value in a SAR capacity IMO.  This is for a number of reasons:

1.  A special satellite pass done over the area to capture images after he was reported missing.  However, there was only one pass.  Shadows play a significant role and change visible areas throughout the day.  This is why we have search patterns and may cover various grids multiple times.   

2. When an airplane crashes,  it seldom looks like an airplane.  I suspect most people do not recognize this.  Given all the garbage in the desert, it makes discerning objects very difficult particularly since...

3.  The level of detail/resolution is not sufficent.  In this case we're talking about a Decathlon which is a very small aircraft.  Some maps have better resolution than others but this is still an issue.

4.  You have many untrained civilians potentially reviewing these images.  Once someone *thinks* they see something of interest, a method for investigating the object further must be in place.  That does not exist to my knowledge (this Google Earth/MT effort was not coordinated with CAP AFAIK).  I suspect that unless there was very compelling evidence presented, we are not going to pull aircrews to investigate each potential report sent to us.  Doing so would take resources away from proven methods of SAR.  

What many simply don't comprehend is how difficult it is to find someone with no known plan in area so large.  Keep in mind, CAP also employs advanced technologies both on their own and through partnerships with other agencies - we've had USAF review radar images, we've had numerous military SAR aircraft and specialty equipment participate.   We are professionals, we take the job very seriously, and we are very good at what we do.  But we don't own any magic wands.

As this type of technology improves in the future, it may become more valuable.   However, it's not there yet and at this point I don't put a lot of value in it.

[SDF_Specialist]

I can't find any new news. Has Steve Fossett been found yet? Is CAP still in the search? I would imagine that by now, this is more of a recovery mission rather than a SAR. Just my educated guess

[bosshawk]

Ryan: yes, CAP is still very much in the search.  Both bases are still open and flying.  There is info that the Minden base will have to either close or move on Friday, since Minden expects to get inundated with corporate aircraft unable to land and stay at Reno for the air races.

I talked to the CA IC yesterday and he had over 40 people and 13 aircraft flying on the CA side.  That is pretty impressive, given that it was the middle of the week.  Over last weekend, I seem to recall that the CAWG group topped out at 16 aircraft and they plan on keeping the search going through this weekend, at least.

Having flown a lot of the territory in this search area, let me tell you that it is not an easy deal for CAP crews.

[NIN]

Its my understanding that Minden is presently on hold for high winds...

[bosshawk]

To add to the discussion about using satellite imagery to try to find Fossett.  In one of my past assignments, I spent days looking at aerial photos of a search area for a missing airplane.  No joy!!

On Monday, I was asked by the Ops Officer at the Bishop, Ca base, to look at some Google Earth images of the search area to see what I could find.  I then spent about two days straight looking at Google images and I found all sorts of interesting things, but no aircraft wreckage.

I was trained in 1962-63 by the Army as an image analyst and I have worked in the field almost continuously ever since, so I have looked at some images.  To find an aircraft as small as that Decathalon after it was crashed, would be a whole lot like looking for a needle in a haystack. literally.  I concur with one other person in this thread who said that the instructions from Google about what to look for were done by someone who had no idea what they were saying.  The aircraft isn't white, it is blue: it won't be intact in any case and will look like a pile of junk.  If it burned, you are looking for an engine and a bunch of twisted metal tubing.

The Google imagery is supposed to be one meter resolution.  That means that most pieces of a crashed Decathalon will be smaller than one pixel on the image: a very tough thing to see.  Put it under the trees on the side of a mountain or in a gulley with trees in it and the job really gets daunting.

I could go on for hours, but will save your eyes.  Suffice it to say that using imagery is only one tool, not the saviour of the whole deal.

I have no idea as to the orbital geometry of the civilian imaging satellites, but it is quite possible that they haven't had access to the search area very often.  That limits the number of times that they could collect imagery.

[SDF_Specialist]

Ryan: yes, CAP is still very much in the search.  Both bases are still open and flying.  There is info that the Minden base will have to either close or move on Friday, since Minden expects to get inundated with corporate aircraft unable to land and stay at Reno for the air races.

I talked to the CA IC yesterday and he had over 40 people and 13 aircraft flying on the CA side.  That is pretty impressive, given that it was the middle of the week.  Over last weekend, I seem to recall that the CAWG group topped out at 16 aircraft and they plan on keeping the search going through this weekend, at least.

Having flown a lot of the territory in this search area, let me tell you that it is not an easy deal for CAP crews.

Well it's good to hear that we're still involved, not just on a publicity level, but to know that there are members who care.

[0]

Did I read somewhere that we're no longer in charge and that some Air Force group took over.

[D242]

Thank you,  A Member, and bosshawk for taking the time to address my question.

I concur with one other person in this thread who said that the instructions from Google about what to look for were done by someone who had no idea what they were saying. 

Yeah, that was me that said that, in the lead-in to asking the question.

My initial reaction to hearing of the plan was skepticsm. That's been confirmed by your reply.

Thanks.

[bosshawk]

NERMA02: Read my post of yesterday for the info on who is doing the umbrella coordination for this search.

[PHall]

Did I read somewhere that we're no longer in charge and that some Air Force group took over.

Yes, the 129th Rescue Wing, California Air National Guard.

[SAR-EMT1]

What was the reason for the ANG Rescue unit assuming Command of the Mission? Did our IC's need a break or did we (CAP) do something to displease the AFRCC?

I guess what Im asking is: is this a bad thing or a good thing?

[Major Carrales]

What was the reason for the ANG Rescue unit assuming Command of the Mission? Did our IC's need a break or did we (CAP) do something to displease the AFRCC?

I guess what Im asking is: is this a bad thing or a good thing?

IN the ICS system, any qualified person may assume the position of IC.  We often, because of our GES training, tend to think it is a "CAP" thing, but really, an IC and ICS are greater than CAP.

Now, if it is a purely CAP operation, a CAP IC is the most logical.  If it is multiagency, then that is a different matter.

I suspect and speculate that this is a routine IC change.

[alice]

Coordinating air ops in 2 CAP wings where we usually need a highbird to maintain com between acft in grids and our bases, the ad hoc Flying M Ranch Air Force (sometimes called "mercenaries" by a few), the military aircraft, and county sheriffs, needed a bit more base staff and DSL lines than CAP could dream to have in the short term.  The 129th based at Moffett Federal Airfield has plenty of experience in SAR coordinating the military and civilian air worlds.  Not much phases them. When not on combat SAR duties overseas, they send a lot of time flying out to ships on the Pacific to pick up sick sailors and ship passengers.   CAWG and NVWG could not have gotten better help than the 129th to deal with the "ad hoc" Flying M crowd.

[mikeylikey]

So when will the search and RECOVERY operations end?  What is the justifiable amount of time to waste resources and tax payer dollars on one man?  If this were anyone else would the search still be going on as big as it is? 

No disrespect to anyone out there searching, but come on, how long can one survive in the hot sandy dust hole out there? 

No water, food.......has it moved from a  search and rescue to just a recovery operation now?

[RiverAux]

Article I saw today quoted a relative of someone who disappeared on an airplane flight over the area in the sixties and they said that the search went on for 60 days before being called off.  They were hopeful that one of the wrecks found in this search might be of their relative. 

As to how long, thats very hard to say without having intimate details from the mission base.  Otherwise we've got no clue as to what sort of probability of detection that they've been reporting, etc. to AFRCC. 

[mawr]

As I mentioned in another thread here, AL Wing worked a mission for 33 straight days before AFRCC suspended the mission.  This was for an average, Joe Blow, pilot.  AFRCC generally looks at the POD and then makes the call.

[SJFedor]

And with the high profile of this mission, I would imagine that AFRCC is going to keep it open as long as they believe there is a chance. Imagine the backlash from the media if we called it off when there was "still a chance" and not everywhere had been thoroughly looked.

I know if it was my dad, I'd want him found, dead or alive. We should strive for the same thing, and have historically done so, whether it was a famous pilot, or just some guy that no one has heard of, but has a family waiting desperately for some news, any news.

[jayleswo]

So when will the search and RECOVERY operations end?  What is the justifiable amount of time to waste resources and tax payer dollars on one man?  If this were anyone else would the search still be going on as big as it is? 

No disrespect to anyone out there searching, but come on, how long can one survive in the hot sandy dust hole out there? 

No water, food.......has it moved from a  search and rescue to just a recovery operation now?

I sure hope that the Fossett family nor any of Mr. Fossett's friends are reading any of this. The entire search area is not a "dust bowl". There is an amazing variety of terrain we are searching. My personal opinion is that it is still possible he not only survived but may still be alive. At least, if it were me out there, that's the assumption I would like people to make.  It's been less than two weeks and people have survived much longer than that.

There was a story from the early 1970's, and I don't remember the details all that well anymore, where CAWG searched for weeks looking for a family that crashed in the high mountains. They survived for a month before they expired, all the while keeping a journal of their attempts to survive while watching CAP search plans fly overhead without seeing them... Alice or someone else may remember that story. It made a very deep impression on me as a young Observer and still does to this day. Keep the faith.

-- John Aylesworth
Commander, PCR-CA-151

[pixelwonk]

FYI: "CAP Aircraft Searching for Steve Fossett" thread and 'New Fossett topic" merged.
I don't yet see a need for three topics now, guys.