Membership decline stopped?

[RiverAux]

According to stats on the CAP home page it appears that our post post-911 membership slide may have finally bottomed out.

2000: 59442
2001: 58090
2002: 62350
2003: 64535
2004: 60201
2005: 56888
2006: 55889
2007 (10/22): 55962

Interestingly,

[Capt Rivera]

where did you find this?

[RiverAux]

The old membership numbers were from annual reports in my possession.  The 2007 number is on the web site. 

[Major Carrales]

The trick to this is to have solid programs running at the local level.  Get new members active and don't let them wallow in in activity.  Keeping the MOMENTUM going WILL keep 'em FLYING and keep them coming.

That requires constant maintenance of your unit...let's keep this going.  CAP works best when there are enough of us to get synergy!!!

[pixelwonk]

Major, we're gonna need to go ahead and move you downstairs into storage B.

so anyway...
As someone whose been in long enough for two clasps on the membership ribbon, it doesn't bother me much.  Heck, I expected it to a degree.

What I'd really like to see is that broken down by SM'officers and cadets to see if the desire to serve was inversely proportional to the complexity of ES Task guides, or something else altogether to lose over 8500 lost since our peak.
I'd be also interested to see that number compared to other volly organizations.

[RiverAux]

ES task guides started being used in 2000 I think, so they aren't going to be relevant.

Almost all volunteer service organizations have been in decline for decades.  A lot saw a bump after 9/11 like we did that has declined some now. 

[RiverAux]

Well, the final numbers from the 2007 annual report show a membership increase from 55889 to 56494 or 1.01%.  Obviously not a huge increase, but its better than a continued slide. 

[Larry Mangum]

I think the rise in membership was probably due to people wanting to serve their country and communities after 911.  A lot of those who wanted to help where to old to serve in the military or unfit for military service so they joined organizations like CAP. 

Unfortunately for them, the primary missions of CAP have nothing to do with homeland security in most cases.  CAP's move into HLS has been slow, because the Air Forces was not sure how it fit into HLS.  So we lost some of those members along with those members who decided CAP was not what they thought it was. 

CAP is also not the only service organization that has faced declining membership, google service organizations and you will see many of them are talking about the decline in membership. If we have indeed seen a turn around in membership, then we are doing something a lot of other organizations have not.

[♠SARKID♠]

I wouldn't get too excited about the numbers.  As much as I want to commit my beliefs to that of CAP increasing in membership, I have to think that its just a minor fluctuation; rises and falls over the short terms, much like a stock on the market.  If we had some numbers for every year going back to 1941 that showed the post 9/11 decline to be significant in comparison to other downward fluctuations, I might consider it to be of greater importance.

Who can possibly know what the cause of the decline is?  Troughing economy, lack of youth to want to volunteer, fluoride in the drinking water, disco...  I'll bet my boots that in a few years we'll be on an upswing, and a few years after that, we'll be having this same conversation wondering why we've passed the crest of the membership wave.

Now, like I said, if you can show me numbers that make this decline significant in comparison to other declines, I'll change my opinion and bow down so low I could chew my boot laces.

[Stonewall]

I posted this last year based on info gathered from a small collection of Annual Reports to Congress I own.

Membership numbers:

As of 31 Dec 81
Cadets: 23,020
Seniors: 37,668
Total: 60, 688

As of 31 Dec 82
Cadets: 24,645
Seniors: 40,024
Total: 64,669

As of 31 Dec 83
Cadets: 26,104
Seniors: 41,669
Total: 67,773

As of 31 Dec 84
Cadets: 24,900
Seniors: 41,605
Total: 66,505

As of 31 Dec 86
Cadets: 25,940
Seniors: 40,991
Total: 66,931

As of 31 Dec 87 (year I joined)
Cadets: 30,500
Seniros: 42,469
Total: 72,969

As of 31 Dec 88
Cadets: 30,505
Seniors: 42,331
Total: 72,836

As of 31 Dec 89
Cadets: 27,188
Seniors: 40,151
Total: 67,339

As of 31 Dec 90
Cadets: 23,780
Seniors: 36,486
Total: 60,266

As of 31 Dec 91
Cadets: 22,509
Seniors: 35,281
Total: 57,790

As of 31 Dec 92
Cadets: 21,128
Seniors: 34,551
Total: 55,679

As of 31 Dec 93
Cadets: 19,607
Seniors: 33,709
Total: 53,316

As of 31 Dec 94
Cadets: 17,688
Seniors: 33,353
Total: 51,041

For 1995, I can't find the number breakdown, but in the letter to Congress, Gen Anderson says "on behalf of our more than 53,000 members". the 1995 RTC was smaller than the others, I mean, physically smaller, as in its measurements were smaller for some reason.

As of 31 Dec 96
Cadets: 19,523
Seniors: 33,350
Total: 52,873

As of 31 Dec 97
Cadets: 23,211
Seniors: 33,478
Total: 56,689

As of 31 Dec 98
Cadets: 25,860
Seniors: 34,508
Total: 60,368

As of 31 Dec 99
Cadets: 26,189
Seniors: 35,027
Total: 61, 216

As of 31 Dec 02
Cadets: 26,937
Seniors: 37,598
Total: 64,535

The reason why I have more statistics than RTCs is because some RTCs list membership numbers for previous years that I didn't snag an RTC.

Note: I wonder how much the membership changed due to the middle school initiative. If you subtract those numbers, what are the true numbers. Of course, they still wouldn't be "true numbers" in the sense that just because we have x number of members doesn't mean we have x number of participating members.

[♠SARKID♠]

Let me hit ya with some chart action there.

Looks to me like membership went up after Sept 11.

[mikeylikey]

^ Dan, we needed a chart to see membership went up after 9-11?  I appreciate the chart none the less!

I would like to see the stats on membership when CAP hired the billboard firm in 2002-2003.  I think that actually increased our numbers, and I wonder why it was not continued................

[RiverAux]

I wonder what was going on in the last half of the 90s that had our numbers growing pretty good? 

[jimmydeanno]

Let me hit ya with some chart action there.

How about expressed in a pie chart because...well I like pie! 

[SAR-EMT1]

why were the numbers so high mid-eighties?

[FW]

The surge in membership may be attributed to the increased patriotism during the Granada conflict and the ending of the cold war.  Unfortunately, the membership decline from 1989-1992 has been attributed to the beginning of fingerprint cards and background checks for senior members.  PAWG lost 1000 members within a 1 year period; 1990-1991.

[Ricochet13]

I have noticed, based on CAPID numbers issued that since June 2007 compared with February 2008, approximately 10,000 new members have joined the organization.  Given the overall membership numbers have remained fairly constant, there is a tremendous attrition rate.

Old news of course, but whether membership numbers end their decline or not, we need to be looking at retention.  A 20-25% turnover of membership in the last year?  Not sure if my numbers are correct, but is certainly and indication of where emphasis should be.

[BillB]

As long as I can remember, fingerprint cards were required for CAP membership. I filled out my first senior member application in 1951 and they were required then. As a Squadron Commander in the 60's they were required, and an ex-wife had to complete one in the 80's. So where ever someone came up with the idea that they were started in the late 1980's has the wrong information. They were not required for cadet protection, but have always been required to check a persons felony record.

[FW]

I have noticed, based on CAPID numbers issued that since June 2007 compared with February 2008, approximately 10,000 new members have joined the organization.  Given the overall membership numbers have remained fairly constant, there is a tremendous attrition rate.

Old news of course, but whether membership numbers end their decline or not, we need to be looking at retention.  A 20-25% turnover of membership in the last year?  Not sure if my numbers are correct, but is certainly and indication of where emphasis should be.

It's been said we lose about 15-20,000 members per year.  If we could just keep 20% of these members, we'd be over 75,000 members again within 6 years.  Any ideas?

[mikeylikey]

Old news of course, but whether membership numbers end their decline or not, we need to be looking at retention.  A 20-25% turnover of membership in the last year?  Not sure if my numbers are correct, but is certainly and indication of where emphasis should be.

It's been said we lose about 15-20,000 members per year.  If we could just keep 20% of these members, we'd be over 75,000 members again within 6 years.  Any ideas?
[/quote]

I suggest NHQ look into this problem.  It is really their problem afterall.