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Author Topic: Driverless cars (and aircraft) ... the future safety 'enhancement' soon to be  (Read 1688 times)
Live2Learn
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« on: February 12, 2017, 09:10:43 PM »

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/03/unsafe-at-any-speed/513845/

A close read of many of the NTSB accident reports reminds me of a 1950ís sci-fi novel that described an AI mediated World-State where humans were not allowed to participate in activities if the risk of injury or death from 'human error' was a known to be non-zero.  At the time I thought it an interesting mind experiment.  Now... future shock.

jt
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Al Sayre
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« Reply #1 on: February 13, 2017, 01:57:27 PM »

The future is here... https://phys.org/news/2017-02-passenger-carrying-drone-dubai.html

Personally, I'm stocking up on junkyard distributors for Fords and Chevys that use points and a condenser...
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Lt Col Al Sayre
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« Reply #2 on: February 13, 2017, 02:05:01 PM »

As discussed in other related threads, there's simply no way around it - autonomous or semi-autonomous vehicles
are, and will be, inherently safer, if for no other reason then they never get tired, distracted, or emotional.

Those who argue otherwise generally do so from the perspective of introducing other human factors such as erratic
pedestrians, non-autonomous cars, etc., which can introduce chaos factors into the system, but pretty much make the
original point about which is safer, man or machine.

An imperfect being cannot create a perfect device, but it can certainly improve upon the existing, whether that is in total
or in comparison.

As soon as Musk or others can figure out the "Trolley Problem", the rest is pretty much already done, or on someone's
drawing board somewhere.
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Briank
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« Reply #3 on: February 13, 2017, 02:35:41 PM »

An imperfect being cannot create a perfect device, but it can certainly improve upon the existing, whether that is in total
or in comparison.

Indeed.  The imperfect systems out now are already showing significantly better results than the average driver.  Not too much longer before they're better than the best drivers.  So, a win for safety for sure.

The downside is that my favorite part of the workday is driving my own car to/from work...  A huge portion of my income goes into those cars.  I anticipate self-driving cars leading to an early retirement for me.  Once human-driven cars are banned (or just too expensive re: insurance) to drive, I won't have any reason to work anymore.  If easy "on demand" self-driving rentals are available, I'll still make CAP meetings.  If not, well, CAP is the only reason I'd have to leave my neighborhood (I live in a very walkable suburb), and that one reason is  unlikely to be enough to keep me working just to buy a self-driving car that I don't want to ride in...
« Last Edit: February 13, 2017, 02:39:46 PM by Briank » Logged
Майор Хаткевич
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« Reply #4 on: February 13, 2017, 03:02:47 PM »

At least according to Musk, the goal is to have "your" self driving car work as a ride-share vehicle while you work, making back some of the money you spent on it. Same deal with when you're asleep/at home, with no plans.

Personally, I too enjoy driving, but I also enjoyed commuting via train, which game me freedom to read, play games, browse the web, etc.

In the future I see driving as a weekend activity for those with extra disposable income, in their "classic" cars.

Down the road from that? Only the rich, who can afford the insurance premiums. After all, that is the way of the world. What used to be seen as "below" a business man, is now considered normal (typing mainly). So while the richest of the rich typically see driving themselves as "below" them, in the future it will flip around due to the novelty.

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Eclipse
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« Reply #5 on: February 13, 2017, 03:09:06 PM »

I regularly drive a recreational vehicle (motorcycle), and the prospect of that right going away or
being reduced makes me sad, but the flip side is that traffic in urban areas is so bad that I long ago gave up viewing my POV as
anything more then a modus of transport and would accept anything else "better".

While some companies have made a public show of reeling in remote and virtual employees (i.e. Yahoo),
the clear vector is still closing or reducing brick and mortar locations in favor if ee's working from home or "other".

I'd rather "read, or work, or watch the world go by..."
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Live2Learn
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« Reply #6 on: February 13, 2017, 04:31:30 PM »

I wonder if Asimov's "three laws" will become a standard in these self driving cars and other AI operated devices?  Note that there's nothing in these three that says human's can't be bored into a mindless stupor.   :-\

 1.A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.

 2.A robot must obey orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.

 3.A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.


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THRAWN
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« Reply #7 on: February 13, 2017, 04:59:30 PM »

It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity or remorse or fear and it absolutely will not stop EVER until you are dead!
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« Reply #8 on: February 13, 2017, 05:27:55 PM »

I wonder if Asimov's "three laws" will become a standard in these self driving cars and other AI operated devices?  Note that there's nothing in these three that says human's can't be bored into a mindless stupor.   :-\

 1.A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.

 2.A robot must obey orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.

 3.A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.

I, Robot has never been more relevent - strong recommend (the novel not the movie).
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Eclipse
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« Reply #9 on: February 13, 2017, 05:28:40 PM »

It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity or remorse or fear and it absolutely will not stop EVER until you are dead!

It won't start if you are drunk, or no license, or no insurance, or no plates, or have a warrant, it won't flee, could be prevented from
speeding, >WILL< turn right on red, >WON'T brake on a green light "in case"...
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etodd
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« Reply #10 on: February 13, 2017, 09:05:26 PM »

I wonder if Asimov's "three laws" will become a standard in these self driving cars and other AI operated devices?  Note that there's nothing in these three that says human's can't be bored into a mindless stupor.   :-\

 1.A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.

 2.A robot must obey orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.

 3.A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.

I keep asking about how these cars will be programmed. If an on-coming school bus swerves toward my car, will the computer send me over the 200 foot cliff to the right to save the kids, or will it just stop to try and save me and hope for the best with the bus?

WHO will be the programmers that make these decisions in the software?

Attorneys will get richer .....

.
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« Reply #11 on: February 13, 2017, 09:50:24 PM »

^Thats the "Trolley Problem".
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Al Sayre
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« Reply #12 on: February 14, 2017, 08:20:04 AM »

It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity or remorse or fear and it absolutely will not stop EVER until you are dead!

It won't start if you are drunk, or no license, or no insurance, or no plates, or have a warrant, it won't flee, could be prevented from
speeding, >WILL< turn right on red, >WON'T brake on a green light "in case"...

And will probably still drive the exact speed limit in the left lane, no matter how many cars are backing up trying to pass...
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Lt Col Al Sayre
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« Reply #13 on: February 14, 2017, 08:54:56 AM »

Cars won't be trying to pass since they won't need to and will all be 1 foot apart...
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Live2Learn
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« Reply #14 on: February 14, 2017, 12:36:02 PM »

Cars won't be trying to pass since they won't need to and will all be 1 foot apart...

Except when behind a vehicle without an AI driver (AI which will communicate up and down the line with other AI operated vehicles so 'safety and efficiency' are maximized).

Since the vehicles will likely be 'drive by wire', the AI driver will probably be aware of and recording all 'faults', then comparing (in real time) the fault list against a minimum equipment list to determine whether the vehicle should be pulled over and "red carded" until repaired.

I understand Congress is considering legislation to alter the list of minimum required equipment in vehicles so items like "steering wheels, brakes, accelerators, engine instruments" etc. that are accessible to human occupants are no longer required. 

Brave New World it will be!  But safer, even if that's not exactly what we really want.  And very likely boring.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2017, 12:41:54 PM by Live2Learn » Logged
SarDragon
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« Reply #15 on: February 14, 2017, 06:48:16 PM »

Cars won't be trying to pass since they won't need to and will all be 1 foot apart...

Really? I hope not.

At 60 mph, a car travels 88 feet in one second. Inverting that, the car takes 1/88 (.0113) sec to travel one foot. That is far below the ability of an electromechanical system to react and slow down.
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Dave Bowles
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« Reply #16 on: February 14, 2017, 07:16:59 PM »

OK, a foot might be extreme. Maybe, but certainly minimum intervals - that's part of the advantage of
a "system" traffic management where the cars are basically packets and the system knows where all the pieces are.

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Live2Learn
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« Reply #17 on: February 21, 2017, 06:26:38 PM »

This 'expert' suggests we won't need to worry about road rage incidents (from human drivers, anyhow) in the not very distant future.  http://www.nextgov.com/emerging-tech/2017/01/robotics-expert-predicts-kids-born-2017-will-never-drive-car/134395/?oref=nextgov_today_nl  FWIW, I think he's probably correct.  Nor will we need to worry about pilots who make bad decisions, buzz their buddy's beer parties, or fly VFR into IMC. 

Then again, maybe the storyline isn't so rosy and 'safe' as suggested.

https://qz.com/911843/googles-ai-got-highly-aggressive-when-competition-got-stressful-in-a-fruit-picking-game/

Software glitches being what they are, it's almost a 'given' that AI driven vehicles could become "aggressive" and experience road rage if properly stimulated (aka 'motivated').  According to this short video clip, this robot, "Sophia",  is capable of learning, and hopes to 'integrate' humans with AI... I wonder???  https://www.facebook.com/cnbcinternational/videos/749203651847444/  The engineer who participates in the interview is kinda creepy.

:O
« Last Edit: February 21, 2017, 06:38:21 PM by Live2Learn » Logged
Luis R. Ramos
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« Reply #18 on: February 21, 2017, 06:54:30 PM »

Sophia, forerunner of Skynet?

 ???
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PHall
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« Reply #19 on: February 21, 2017, 09:01:32 PM »

Sophia, forerunner of Skynet?

 ???

Skynet is here. They call it "The Cloud". >:D
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CAP Talk  |  Operations  |  Safety  |  Topic: Driverless cars (and aircraft) ... the future safety 'enhancement' soon to be
 


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