Covid-19 updated guidance and information - Dec 2021

[Eclipse]

New Phase Transition guidance (09 Dec):
https://www.gocivilairpatrol.com/media/cms/COVID19_Phase_Transitions_CBE7A6CCE8BE0.pdf






https://www.covidactnow.org/?s=26731572
After going in the right direction for several months, things went backwards quickly
over the last couple of weeks.

Other related info, including Wing status:
https://www.gocivilairpatrol.com/covid-19-remobilization

The table of Wing Status is outdated as I'm aware of wings falling back.

Happy Holidays...

[JohhnyD]

Case rates, especially with the new, very mild Omicron variant, are a dumb metric.

[Fubar]

Case rates, especially with the new, very mild Omicron variant, are a dumb metric.

I agree. ICU availability should be the metric to watch, which unfortunately for many areas is worse than the case rate.

[JohhnyD]

Case rates, especially with the new, very mild Omicron variant, are a dumb metric.

I agree. ICU availability should be the metric to watch, which unfortunately for many areas is worse than the case rate.

Do we have any evidence that any of these "mitigation" efforts have moved the needle at all?

[Eclipse]

Do we have any evidence that any of these "mitigation" efforts have moved the needle at all?

ICU Availability is not a "mitigation effort", it is a symptom of infection rates.

There is a single, simple, free "mitigation" that is scientifically proven to
reduce both the spread, and the severity of infection.

Sadly, a non-trivial number of people worldwide have chosen not to accept this "mitigation"...

...so here we are...

...with the sad fact of the matter being the majority of those hospitalized and dying
did not accept the "mitigation".

The end result will be another lost year, with cancelled and curtailed CAP activities being
the smallest of consequences on a very long list.

[JohhnyD]

There is a single, simple, free "mitigation" that is scientifically proven to
reduce both the spread, and the severity of infection.

And what, oh great sage, would that "single" and "proven" mitigation be?

[baronet68]

There is a single, simple, free "mitigation" that is scientifically proven to
reduce both the spread, and the severity of infection.

And what, oh great sage, would that "single" and "proven" mitigation be?

I'm just spit-balling here but I'm gonna guess he's talking about vaccination.


Funny to me that vaccines, fire extinguishers, seat belts, and life jackets all have so much in common:


Do they work all of the time and in every situation? 
No.

Should they be relied upon as a single-source of protection? 
No.

Are there situations where their use may cause additional harm to someone? 
Yes.

Do they reduce the potential for disease, fire, auto injury, and drowning? 
Yes.


Are there some people who (no matter what they hear, read, or see) are not just reluctant but outright adamant against their use?
Yes.

[Shuman 14]

The hypocrisy of the statement "My Body, my Choice" is a amazing.

Shouted from the rooftops in order to murder unborn babies in the womb.

Now a right-wing talking point by anti-vaccine mandate crowd.

A truly sad state our country is in.

[TheSkyHornet]

Just a hypothetical:
What's the plan going to be in 2023 if, say, less than 30% of the population decided to be vaccinated against the latest flu strain, or amid a new bird flu pandemic?

Is this the "new norm" for future outbreaks, or is this something that CAP is focusing on wholly in respect to COVID-19 alone? I would imagine that we have considered the cost-benefit of imposing similar "demobilization/remoblization" plans for the future.

One of the big questions that we've heard from people is "Why don't we do this for every disease/virus?" I've heard some leaders in CAP suggest that we should be wearing face masks going forward during every cold/flu season to avoid spreading it. "We really should have been doing this for a long time. The rest of the world was always way ahead of us when it came to wearing masks."But I'm not hearing that this as the new norm across the board.

I think where some members continue to be confused/frustrated is that there really isn't a lot of consistency in the messaging. Now, I fully understand that, at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic here in the United States, there really wasn't a plan to respond. Action was taken to try to combat the spread, including a complete shutdown of most of the country, to include CAP operations. So here we are two years later, and the "pandemic isn't over yet." There's really no saying as to when it's going to suddenly dwindle down and disappear. I understand that part. But how long do we make these restrictions last? How many times are we going to demobilize once the COVID-19 pandemic is over and the next pandemic is upon us, maybe slightly less or slightly more severe? I may not necessarily agree with the approach, but I would completely understand the idea to respond similar and to use meeting restrictions as a method to decrease the spread of disease. But if we're not considering that as a plan of action for future disease outbreaks, then we're not being consistent with why we're implementing it today.

This is the first time in the last century that we have seen nearly the entire world shut itself down over a disease. It's very new to all of us. That said, many other organizations---whether they're contributing to the spread of the disease or not---have elected not to continue to impose the same restrictions that we all implemented early last year.

Other youth programs, gyms/fitness centers, etc...while we've seen great improvements in sanitization of areas and equipment, which I personally favor for the long-term just as a general hygienic practice, we've seen gathering restrictions lifted and mask mandates lifted just the same. Are they causing further spread? I don't know if it's conclusive for us to say that, or if it's even correlated. No idea. But we're still in recruiting and retention competition with other organizations, and we're losing that front.

Some CAP wings may have gained a little bit of new membership, but we're talking a few dozen over the course of a year; and that doesn't mean new members are necessarily active long enough to "see it through the pandemic." We don't have that data yet even since the pandemic is not over and neither are the restrictions. But there are some wings that lost nearly 50% of their members. Those people didn't just disappear and die off from COVID-19. They're still out there in the population, in the community, and they have decided not to rejoin CAP; and they likely never will. So where did they go? Did they leave extracurricular involvement and volunteer service altogether? Did they go elsewhere?

Most CAP members leave without an exit interview or survey. And even when there is an exit discussion with the departing member, does that information make it back up to Wing or NHQ? I'm doubtful, as I know for certain that I've never seen that information go up the chain once since I've been in CAP.

Pandemic or not, CAP is not bringing in thousands of members to replace the numbers lost over the past two years; nor are we bringing back members who previously quit when their units were in Phase 0 and Phase 1. If the issue was "just the pandemic," then we should be able to re-recruit some former losses. That's not doable if we're still in lower Phases, and they left because of that reason. It's not doable if they moved on elsewhere and found a replacement since CAP failed to provide fill that gap in their lives that they were seeking.

I know that some of us are arguing the moral issue of allowing gatherings in trade for life-threatening illness. But there are also some of us arguing the issue of continuing to destroy a member roster when those members do have options for activities and service that were not available in April 2020; they are today.

We didn't have a vaccine when we started going to Phase 1 and 2 last year. Is the narrative that the numbers went down because nobody was gathering, and that today it's because unvaccinated are still gathering? Are we going to hold out until 90% of the population is vaccinated? How about when they get the booster? What's the plan here? Just waiting on state and national case numbers?

Most of the membership has no idea how any of this works. Zero. They just want to know why they have to (insert whatever gripe).

[jeders]

And another one gone, and another one gone, another one bites the dust.

Keep it civil and relevant to CAP and we won't have to lock these threads.