Shortage of pilots?

[blackrain]

How 'bout  for the Air Force?

I think the number of Air Force flying billets will be dropping somewhat in the future. Largely due to more UAVs and fewer fighters. The next generation fighters are more capable and WAY more expensive. That will likely limit their numbers in the Air Force inventory. IMHO

So, don't do it because it might be hard? 

Not at all.

Just want to put the numbers in perspective. And to remind the younger members out there that service in the military is about far more than the job you have. I will say I've come across those who were non voled from manned aircraft into UAVs and they were less than pleased though I would say UAVs have saved countless lives in the current conflict. Matter of fact you could probably add my name to that list too.

[Майор Хаткевич]

How 'bout  for the Air Force?

I think the number of Air Force flying billets will be dropping somewhat in the future. Largely due to more UAVs and fewer fighters. The next generation fighters are more capable and WAY more expensive. That will likely limit their numbers in the Air Force inventory. IMHO

So, don't do it because it might be hard? 

Not at all.

Just want to put the numbers in perspective. And to remind the younger members out there that service in the military is about far more than the job you have. I will say I've come across those who were non voled from manned aircraft into UAVs and they were less than pleased though I would say UAVs have saved countless lives in the current conflict. Matter of fact you could probably add my name to that list too.

UAVs might not be as "glamorous" as the "real thing", but I bet when it comes to finding a lifetime partner, they will appreciate the lesser risks involved.

[Flyinsarge]

Well I am looking into bomber/refueler/cargo, not really fighters-those should stay for a while, right??

[BGNightfall]

Not being a pilot, I don't know exactly how feasible this would be, but hear me out.  Already we have UAVs carrying sensor packages in and out of warzones, even carrying missiles down range.  They t/o, land and possibly even taxi all on their own. 

How far of a stretch is it to have aircraft that are little more than flying boxcars (no offense to the old C-119 fans on the board).  By that I mean a loadmaster packs the plane effectively, then slaps it on the tail and watches it fly away.  Ten minutes later he unloads the next bird that came in and turns it over to the maintainers before it gets loaded and is wheels up in an hour.  For that matter, you could take the concept to the next level and have pre-loaded containers that get loaded like pallets on to what amount to flying skeletons (a pair of wings, enough engine power to get the load in the air and a tail section). 

Not sure how realistic any of this is, and if it is already in development it's not closer than 20 years away in any case.  Having said that, if the Air Force could do it, so could the private sector.   

[blackrain]

Well I am looking into bomber/refueler/cargo, not really fighters-those should stay for a while, right??

EVENTUALLY..... KC-X (new tanker) will become part of the inventory and that is most definitely a manned platform. I would say cargo aircraft will stay a manned platform for a long time too. If you are old enough to be posting on this forum then you should have opportunity to get into a manned cockpit. Right now there seems to be a size cutoff for manned versus unmanned. Developing large transport category aircraft that are unmanned would cost a tremendous amount of money and I don't think most would be comfortable with a 100 ton jet flying over populated areas without a crew at this time. At some point I also worry there won't be enough bandwidth to control all the UAVs that some envision but that is a question for the techies to answer.

On the other hand I've heard of an unmanned version of the F-35 in the works. A dogfight between a manned and unmanned version would be something to see.

The face of airpower is changing. It kind of reminds me of the fight Billy Mitchell faced as he tried to tell the powers in charge that airpower would prove more powerful than naval power. Institutions can be very resistant to change.

[titanII]

I read an interesting article in the Smithsonian Air & Space magazine about the manned vs. unmanned "issue". Basically, what it said (or what I interpreted) was that there would be fewer manned fighter aircraft in the future. Most of the fighter aircraft would be replaced by autonomous UAV's, with the weapons that would normally be on a fighter. However, these autonomous fighters would be led by a manned fighter. The pilot for this manned fighter would be responsible for critical decision making, etc.- the things that we would rather put in the hands of humans.
Just a thought.

[Thrashed]

Not sure how realistic any of this is, and if it is already in development it's not closer than 20 years away in any case.  Having said that, if the Air Force could do it, so could the private sector.

It is not likely. People want pilots up front and the want good ones.

[Майор Хаткевич]

Not sure how realistic any of this is, and if it is already in development it's not closer than 20 years away in any case.  Having said that, if the Air Force could do it, so could the private sector.

It is not likely. People want pilots up front and the want good ones.

People also wanted to have a horse in front of a car. A pilot instead of an autopilot assistant. Times change.

[Eclipse]

Not sure how realistic any of this is, and if it is already in development it's not closer than 20 years away in any case.  Having said that, if the Air Force could do it, so could the private sector.

It is not likely. People want pilots up front and the want good ones.

"People" have no idea what they want, nor how airplanes work.  You could put an actor in a pilot's uniform at the front door
and he could walk out with the jetway and they would have no idea who or what is flying the plane.

All "people" care about is getting from point to point safely, quickly, and economically.

The only people who really care about aviation are pilots, with good reason, but also with self-preservation in mind.

If we could setup high-speed rail, pneumatic tubes, or matter transporters that move people and things point-to-point more
efficiently than aircraft, aviation as a business would die in a year.

We aren't there today, and won't be in 5 years, but probably by the end of this century, because the current model of
airline business is not sustainable in the long term.  It's either going to become re-regulated, government owned,
or grind to a halt, from here it's just a matter of where the lines on the graph converge.

[Flyinsarge]

Well I am looking into bomber/refueler/cargo, not really fighters-those should stay for a while, right??

EVENTUALLY..... KC-X (new tanker) will become part of the inventory and that is most definitely a manned platform. I would say cargo aircraft will stay a manned platform for a long time too. If you are old enough to be posting on this forum then you should have opportunity to get into a manned cockpit. Right now there seems to be a size cutoff for manned versus unmanned. Developing large transport category aircraft that are unmanned would cost a tremendous amount of money and I don't think most would be comfortable with a 100 ton jet flying over populated areas without a crew at this time. At some point I also worry there won't be enough bandwidth to control all the UAVs that some envision but that is a question for the techies to answer.

On the other hand I've heard of an unmanned version of the F-35 in the works. A dogfight between a manned and unmanned version would be something to see.

The face of airpower is changing. It kind of reminds me of the fight Billy Mitchell faced as he tried to tell the powers in charge that airpower would prove more powerful than naval power. Institutions can be very resistant to change.

Yeah, Fairchild AFB (where my squadron is located) will be one of the first AFBs to get the KCX.

[Thrashed]

I wouldn't fly in an Airbus hit by Geese without a Sully onboard. No, we are a long way from putting hundreds of lives on the line for the option of removing two pilots from control. This is nothing like horses and cars. If a military UAV crashes, no one on board dies. If an airliner crashes, hundreds die. Big difference. People want cheap, but UAV isn't cheap. People want to get there alive first. Imagine the adds: "Fly our airline. We won't kill you remotely, we have pilots."

[titanII]

Imagine the ads: "Fly our airline. We won't kill you remotely, we have pilots."

Very effective for those afraid of flying 

[RADIOMAN015]

See:  http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos107.htm

The occupational handbook doesn't really see a shortage for pilots and give some specific insight into the competition that pilots are facing
RM

[RiverAux]

Maybe things are turning around.  According to this AF Times article the airlines are fixing to go on a pilot-hiring binge: http://www.airforcetimes.com/news/2011/07/air-force-commercial-pilot-market-boom-072211w/

[Майор Хаткевич]

Maybe things are turning around.  According to this AF Times article the airlines are fixing to go on a pilot-hiring binge: http://www.airforcetimes.com/news/2011/07/air-force-commercial-pilot-market-boom-072211w/

Well, at least one airline just put down for 460 airframes. Some new pilots will be needed for that. Do you think 1000s will be needed? I doubt it.

[bosshawk]

While they are ordering 460 new planes, they will get rid of at least an equal number of airframes, maybe more.  Retirements are what will reduce the number of current pilots.

[wingnut55]

I have a friend towing gliders for about 65 bucks for 10 hous of work, and there is a waiting list for pilots. The Company charges 65 dollars per tow, and pays pilots $6.50/ Hr. . .      

Bob

[DakRadz]

Except minimum wage is $7.40

I'm unskilled labor working at an amusement park and make that an hour. I can't see pilots getting less than minimum wage when they have 6K-10K in training just to fly. And I won't even start on the whole labor law violations discussion.

[Майор Хаткевич]

Except minimum wage is $7.40

I'm unskilled labor working at an amusement park and make that an hour. I can't see pilots getting less than minimum wage when they have 6K-10K in training just to fly. And I won't even start on the whole labor law violations discussion.

It's 8.50 - 8.75 in IL. Then there are states with like...4.75...

[Spaceman3750]

Except minimum wage is $7.40

I'm unskilled labor working at an amusement park and make that an hour. I can't see pilots getting less than minimum wage when they have 6K-10K in training just to fly. And I won't even start on the whole labor law violations discussion.

Minimum wage varies by state. The federal minimum wage was $5.50 or so last time I looked it up a couple of years ago. Some states have laws which increase that - like USAFAUX said, IL is $8.50 or so.