Shortage of pilots?

[davidsinn]

This came across the cadetblog this morning

Good news for cadets. The front page story in today's USA Today reports that America is facing a pilot shortage. According to the story, Boeing forecasts a need for 460,000 new pilots over the next 18 years. The demand for pilots will be so great that the industry could face a shortage. If you're a cadet and you love to fly, it makes sense to consider pursuing a career as a professional pilot. Blue skies for today's teens.

Wouldn't a solution be to allow SMs to take flight training with CAP aircraft? I'm young enough to have a career as a pilot but never will because I can't afford the insanely high cost of entry.

[Flying Pig]

Is thats why pilots are sitting around the airport looking for jobs.  We have had a "pilot shortage" since I started flying at 15 years old.  Flight schools are laying off CFIs with more in line wanting jobs. 
Same with the helicopter industry....Oh the sky is falling, the Vietnam pilots are all starting to retire.  Most of theose Vietnam era Huey drivers have long since retired and they still use that argument.  100 years from now we will still be dreading the day all the Vietnam helicopter pilots retire.
For every Vietnam era helo driver, there are 15 brand new CFI's standing in line right behind them.

I dont think there is a pilot shortage.  Its an experience shortage.  You can have all the 255 hour CFI's you want, thats not who gets jobs.  I talk to guys in their late 40's and 50's all the time who are working on their pilots licenses wanting a career change. Yeah OK buddy.  Its not a commercial drivers license where you can start the day you get your cert.   Enjoy being in your late 40s working as a CFI flying Piper Tomahawks for the next 1000 hrs.

Yes, I believe the aviation industry will always need pilots, but I doubt there will ever be a shortage of them.  I dont think turning CAP into a flight school for adults who want to become airline pilots is the answer.  Maybe the airlines should start their own flight schools like India, China, Taiwan and Japan have done where they hire people and train them from zero time to Multi-Engine Commercial with gauranteed job?

[Eclipse]

Flying is no longer "new" and is routine enough to be just another job to most people (a product of their own success)

Deregulation, 911, high fuel prices, and more attention to shareholder value than business sense have made being an entry-level pilot
a poverty-level job, especially for a regional or local carrier.

Learning to fly is expensive, no longer within reach for the average person as a hobby, especially if they do anything else, and the
traditional avenues of military flying are drying up as the military shrinks and some pilots are moved to UAV's.

The above, as well as urban sprawl, anti-noise activists (ugh, STOP O'HARE EXPANSION - gimme a break), and tree huggers have
reduced the number of airports we have to foster general aviation.  Now in major metro areas there are few, if any, GA airports,
and you have to go pretty far out to find one, which breaks the paradigm of an easy commute.

None of the above is going to change any time soon.  If anything, it is more likely that technology will reduce the need for
more pilots.

Just as many people feel the last fighter pilots have already been born, aircraft that fly themselves already exist, including
takeoff and landing, and their widespread adoption is probably likely within the lifetime of anyone reading this today.

[Майор Хаткевич]

What everyone said...

You hear of the $250,000 jobs, and the next day about the $19,000 jobs.

Quite the range, eh?

[lordmonar]

This is just one of those future vs today things.

Of course right now, today there is not a shortage....but if you read in the article there are several factors at play here and all of them are long term issues.

-Asia expanding their air routes.....that means flying jobs in Asia...not the US.
-Boom-Bust hiring.  They hired a lot of pilots in the 80's and 90's who are all now approaching mandatory retirement age.
-Work/Rest cycle changes at the FAA.....means the airlines are going to have to either cut flights or hire more pilots.

So....I can see where they are going with this.  The question now is.....Will America be able to meet that demand or will it go to some other nation?

[Flyinsarge]

Well I am up to it- and I sure hope flying won't become "just another job" because I have set all my life goals towards becoming a pilot and I want it to still seem like a notch above everyone else's jobs ....

[Thrashed]

These articles are put out by flight schools.  There is no pilot shortage, but there may be one in the future. Who wants to work for nothing?  I work for a major airline and fly Boeings. Most pilots at my airline have not seen a raise in 20 years. Most of us have taken 35%+ paycuts!  Pilots make 6 times less than they did in the '70's. I make less than most flight attendants and baggage handlers. I have a Master's degree, 14,000 hours, 6 airline type ratings, and have NOTHING to show for it. My pay is so low, I live paycheck to paycheck (I know what you're thinking and you would be wrong; I drive a 12 year old Corolla with 190K on it and live in a $100K small home that the bank owns), I have no pention, I own nothing, I work weekends, I work Holidays, I'm away from my family. I like flying airplanes.  I've done GA, corporate, airline, etc. I have been flying since 1982 and have 21 years until retirement.  I don't like the way I'm treated by coworkers, the company, the public. I'm tired of paying for the customer's fuel, raise the ticket prices! Where's the money and respect that a professional pilot deserves?  If my airline was only 99.99% safe, we would have a crash every 4 days!  Doctors kill thousands a year by mistake.  I deserve better than I'm getting.

The only reason for a pilot shortage in the future is because no young person today see this "career" as worth it, and that is because it's not. Why go to college and flight school and spend tons of money on a career that pays less than the guy driving the UPS van? 

I don't encourage any young person to get into this business. Good luck to any of you who try.

[lordmonar]

Sorry for your pain.......however, how is that different then just about any other career.  My 22 years in the military was just like that.

[Flying Pig]

Hey my counties Chief Financial Officer just approved his own 18% pay raise at the same time I accepted a 10% pay cut.  I think we are all in the wrong business! Aviation is a strange animal. My only experience in aviation is as an LE pilot.  I most certainly dont think I would be flying if not for that angle.

[Flyinsarge]

But airliners are so cool! Where else could I fly something that size?

[RiverAux]

Basic supply/demand issue -- pilot wages have been going down and entry level at the small airlines is embarrassingly low, therefore it is pretty clear that there is an overabundance of pilots.  If there was a shortage, wages would be rising. 

[SarDragon]

Maybe the airlines should start their own flight schools like India, China, Taiwan and Japan have done where they hire people and train them from zero time to Multi-Engine Commercial with gauranteed job?

United used to do that back in the '70s or '80s. I worked with a guy who did that. Walked in off the street with zero hours, and ended up in whatever was top of the line at the time. He medically retired (cardio), but said it was a great job while it lasted.

[blackrain]

Bottom line is the airline business model sustainable as it stands? That will determine how many pilots are needed.

As I understand it, a lot of  airlines revenue comes from full fare business travelers and cargo carried in the hold. Now with things like video teleconferencing do as many businessmen have to travel as much? I don't know. I do know I use regular teleconferencing as means to stay in touch. Even classes are more and more on-line. I would guess everyone else is traveling using at least some discretionary income. As oil prices increase then all sectors of the economy take a hit. While people have to pony up to put gas in the car to get to work, flying is usually not as critical for most people. This happens just as the airlines themselves are taking a hit in paying more for fuel. As far as cargo, exactly what cargo is so critical it has to be somewhere overnight that people are willing to pay a premium? Some things ARE critical enough but I think people will take a harder look at cost benefit in the future.

Thrash...what say you

[Thrashed]

There are many factors affecting ticket costs and pay. We do make a lot on business travel, cargo, and international. Domestic is pretty much a bust.  Low cost airlines have lowered the standard and cost so much, no one can make money. Internet sites have hurt the costs too. Before the internet, people went to the travel agent and paid what it cost to fly from A to B. Now people go on the internet and search for the lowest cost by the penny. Airlines are forced to lower costs to compete with cheap airlines. People don't want to pay for safety, quality, service, etc., they only want to save a buck on their flight. Airlines reduce service to try to compensate; no pillows, no free food, no blankets, no penuts, etc. Now it is so bad airlines are charging for everything to break even. Bag fees, seat fees, etc. Fuel is a major expense. Fuel is up about 6 times what is was in the 1970's. Which is the number (6X) that pilot pay is down. Coincidence?

If flying an airliner cool? Yea. I've flown over the North Pole to China. I've flown through Iranian airspace to India. I've left my hotel in Rome to tour the colliseum. I've been in every major city in the Americas and Europe. I've had some memorable flights to some cool places. I've also spent time in some nasty places and nasty hotels. Airlines fly everywhere, not just the fun places.

Watch the new TV series this fall: Pan Am.  That is how is was. That is how it should be. Today's air travel is one step above Greyhound bus service (who's drivers make more than me!)

[Flying Pig]

Today's air travel is one step above Greyhound bus service (who's drivers make more than me!)

Now thats wrong....

[Майор Хаткевич]

Today's air travel is one step above Greyhound bus service (who's drivers make more than me!)

Now thats wrong....

No kidding.

As a young and impressionable cadet I wanted to fly for the military, and of course airlines as the backup/retirement plan. That was something I picked up from another cadet. Now I'm a Finance major, and he's done with school in 3 years, and is a CFI. Hope him the best.

[simon]

Fly for fun, not for work.

[Flyinsarge]

How 'bout  for the Air Force?

[blackrain]

How 'bout  for the Air Force?

I think the number of Air Force flying billets will be dropping somewhat in the future. Largely due to more UAVs and fewer fighters. The next generation fighters are more capable and WAY more expensive. That will likely limit their numbers in the Air Force inventory. IMHO

[A.Member]

How 'bout  for the Air Force?

I think the number of Air Force flying billets will be dropping somewhat in the future. Largely due to more UAVs and fewer fighters. The next generation fighters are more capable and WAY more expensive. That will likely limit their numbers in the Air Force inventory. IMHO

So, don't do it because it might be hard? 

[blackrain]

How 'bout  for the Air Force?

I think the number of Air Force flying billets will be dropping somewhat in the future. Largely due to more UAVs and fewer fighters. The next generation fighters are more capable and WAY more expensive. That will likely limit their numbers in the Air Force inventory. IMHO

So, don't do it because it might be hard? 

Not at all.

Just want to put the numbers in perspective. And to remind the younger members out there that service in the military is about far more than the job you have. I will say I've come across those who were non voled from manned aircraft into UAVs and they were less than pleased though I would say UAVs have saved countless lives in the current conflict. Matter of fact you could probably add my name to that list too.

[Майор Хаткевич]

How 'bout  for the Air Force?

I think the number of Air Force flying billets will be dropping somewhat in the future. Largely due to more UAVs and fewer fighters. The next generation fighters are more capable and WAY more expensive. That will likely limit their numbers in the Air Force inventory. IMHO

So, don't do it because it might be hard? 

Not at all.

Just want to put the numbers in perspective. And to remind the younger members out there that service in the military is about far more than the job you have. I will say I've come across those who were non voled from manned aircraft into UAVs and they were less than pleased though I would say UAVs have saved countless lives in the current conflict. Matter of fact you could probably add my name to that list too.

UAVs might not be as "glamorous" as the "real thing", but I bet when it comes to finding a lifetime partner, they will appreciate the lesser risks involved.

[Flyinsarge]

Well I am looking into bomber/refueler/cargo, not really fighters-those should stay for a while, right??

[BGNightfall]

Not being a pilot, I don't know exactly how feasible this would be, but hear me out.  Already we have UAVs carrying sensor packages in and out of warzones, even carrying missiles down range.  They t/o, land and possibly even taxi all on their own. 

How far of a stretch is it to have aircraft that are little more than flying boxcars (no offense to the old C-119 fans on the board).  By that I mean a loadmaster packs the plane effectively, then slaps it on the tail and watches it fly away.  Ten minutes later he unloads the next bird that came in and turns it over to the maintainers before it gets loaded and is wheels up in an hour.  For that matter, you could take the concept to the next level and have pre-loaded containers that get loaded like pallets on to what amount to flying skeletons (a pair of wings, enough engine power to get the load in the air and a tail section). 

Not sure how realistic any of this is, and if it is already in development it's not closer than 20 years away in any case.  Having said that, if the Air Force could do it, so could the private sector.   

[blackrain]

Well I am looking into bomber/refueler/cargo, not really fighters-those should stay for a while, right??

EVENTUALLY..... KC-X (new tanker) will become part of the inventory and that is most definitely a manned platform. I would say cargo aircraft will stay a manned platform for a long time too. If you are old enough to be posting on this forum then you should have opportunity to get into a manned cockpit. Right now there seems to be a size cutoff for manned versus unmanned. Developing large transport category aircraft that are unmanned would cost a tremendous amount of money and I don't think most would be comfortable with a 100 ton jet flying over populated areas without a crew at this time. At some point I also worry there won't be enough bandwidth to control all the UAVs that some envision but that is a question for the techies to answer.

On the other hand I've heard of an unmanned version of the F-35 in the works. A dogfight between a manned and unmanned version would be something to see.

The face of airpower is changing. It kind of reminds me of the fight Billy Mitchell faced as he tried to tell the powers in charge that airpower would prove more powerful than naval power. Institutions can be very resistant to change.

[titanII]

I read an interesting article in the Smithsonian Air & Space magazine about the manned vs. unmanned "issue". Basically, what it said (or what I interpreted) was that there would be fewer manned fighter aircraft in the future. Most of the fighter aircraft would be replaced by autonomous UAV's, with the weapons that would normally be on a fighter. However, these autonomous fighters would be led by a manned fighter. The pilot for this manned fighter would be responsible for critical decision making, etc.- the things that we would rather put in the hands of humans.
Just a thought.

[Thrashed]

Not sure how realistic any of this is, and if it is already in development it's not closer than 20 years away in any case.  Having said that, if the Air Force could do it, so could the private sector.

It is not likely. People want pilots up front and the want good ones.

[Майор Хаткевич]

Not sure how realistic any of this is, and if it is already in development it's not closer than 20 years away in any case.  Having said that, if the Air Force could do it, so could the private sector.

It is not likely. People want pilots up front and the want good ones.

People also wanted to have a horse in front of a car. A pilot instead of an autopilot assistant. Times change.

[Eclipse]

Not sure how realistic any of this is, and if it is already in development it's not closer than 20 years away in any case.  Having said that, if the Air Force could do it, so could the private sector.

It is not likely. People want pilots up front and the want good ones.

"People" have no idea what they want, nor how airplanes work.  You could put an actor in a pilot's uniform at the front door
and he could walk out with the jetway and they would have no idea who or what is flying the plane.

All "people" care about is getting from point to point safely, quickly, and economically.

The only people who really care about aviation are pilots, with good reason, but also with self-preservation in mind.

If we could setup high-speed rail, pneumatic tubes, or matter transporters that move people and things point-to-point more
efficiently than aircraft, aviation as a business would die in a year.

We aren't there today, and won't be in 5 years, but probably by the end of this century, because the current model of
airline business is not sustainable in the long term.  It's either going to become re-regulated, government owned,
or grind to a halt, from here it's just a matter of where the lines on the graph converge.

[Flyinsarge]

Well I am looking into bomber/refueler/cargo, not really fighters-those should stay for a while, right??

EVENTUALLY..... KC-X (new tanker) will become part of the inventory and that is most definitely a manned platform. I would say cargo aircraft will stay a manned platform for a long time too. If you are old enough to be posting on this forum then you should have opportunity to get into a manned cockpit. Right now there seems to be a size cutoff for manned versus unmanned. Developing large transport category aircraft that are unmanned would cost a tremendous amount of money and I don't think most would be comfortable with a 100 ton jet flying over populated areas without a crew at this time. At some point I also worry there won't be enough bandwidth to control all the UAVs that some envision but that is a question for the techies to answer.

On the other hand I've heard of an unmanned version of the F-35 in the works. A dogfight between a manned and unmanned version would be something to see.

The face of airpower is changing. It kind of reminds me of the fight Billy Mitchell faced as he tried to tell the powers in charge that airpower would prove more powerful than naval power. Institutions can be very resistant to change.

Yeah, Fairchild AFB (where my squadron is located) will be one of the first AFBs to get the KCX.

[Thrashed]

I wouldn't fly in an Airbus hit by Geese without a Sully onboard. No, we are a long way from putting hundreds of lives on the line for the option of removing two pilots from control. This is nothing like horses and cars. If a military UAV crashes, no one on board dies. If an airliner crashes, hundreds die. Big difference. People want cheap, but UAV isn't cheap. People want to get there alive first. Imagine the adds: "Fly our airline. We won't kill you remotely, we have pilots."

[titanII]

Imagine the ads: "Fly our airline. We won't kill you remotely, we have pilots."

Very effective for those afraid of flying 

[RADIOMAN015]

See:  http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos107.htm

The occupational handbook doesn't really see a shortage for pilots and give some specific insight into the competition that pilots are facing
RM

[RiverAux]

Maybe things are turning around.  According to this AF Times article the airlines are fixing to go on a pilot-hiring binge: http://www.airforcetimes.com/news/2011/07/air-force-commercial-pilot-market-boom-072211w/

[Майор Хаткевич]

Maybe things are turning around.  According to this AF Times article the airlines are fixing to go on a pilot-hiring binge: http://www.airforcetimes.com/news/2011/07/air-force-commercial-pilot-market-boom-072211w/

Well, at least one airline just put down for 460 airframes. Some new pilots will be needed for that. Do you think 1000s will be needed? I doubt it.

[bosshawk]

While they are ordering 460 new planes, they will get rid of at least an equal number of airframes, maybe more.  Retirements are what will reduce the number of current pilots.

[wingnut55]

I have a friend towing gliders for about 65 bucks for 10 hous of work, and there is a waiting list for pilots. The Company charges 65 dollars per tow, and pays pilots $6.50/ Hr. . .      

Bob

[DakRadz]

Except minimum wage is $7.40

I'm unskilled labor working at an amusement park and make that an hour. I can't see pilots getting less than minimum wage when they have 6K-10K in training just to fly. And I won't even start on the whole labor law violations discussion.

[Майор Хаткевич]

Except minimum wage is $7.40

I'm unskilled labor working at an amusement park and make that an hour. I can't see pilots getting less than minimum wage when they have 6K-10K in training just to fly. And I won't even start on the whole labor law violations discussion.

It's 8.50 - 8.75 in IL. Then there are states with like...4.75...

[Spaceman3750]

Except minimum wage is $7.40

I'm unskilled labor working at an amusement park and make that an hour. I can't see pilots getting less than minimum wage when they have 6K-10K in training just to fly. And I won't even start on the whole labor law violations discussion.

Minimum wage varies by state. The federal minimum wage was $5.50 or so last time I looked it up a couple of years ago. Some states have laws which increase that - like USAFAUX said, IL is $8.50 or so.

[Flying Pig]

Except minimum wage is $7.40

I'm unskilled labor working at an amusement park and make that an hour. I can't see pilots getting less than minimum wage when they have 6K-10K in training just to fly. And I won't even start on the whole labor law violations discussion.

$6-$10K?!  Its about $40K to get a commercial/instrument SEL which is the bare min to get a paying job.

[wingnut55]

I is just telling like it is, if you are a CFI you may work 60 hours a week to make $450, or you may make 65 for a day. I know guys that are taking jobs like that just to gain flight time.

It is the sad truth of life, if you have too many under-employed; wages go down, the people who are learning to fly to be airline pilots know the score, it sucks but they chug along. The shortage will just mean we will be seing alot of foreign students coming here.

Oh did I mention that many Airlines want a B.A too.

Bob 

[Майор Хаткевич]

did I mention that many Airlines want a B.A too.

Bob

most seem to want a degree these days. Just had a pal graduate and he got s job with a regional carrier. Of course his loans are probably equal to 3-5 years worth of income...

[Flying Pig]

Central CA is nothing but foreign students flying around.  You can barely understand anything on the radio. One of the big schools here, you cant go and just do a private. They will only take students who are going all the way through at least commercial level.

[bosshawk]

It really is fun trying to sort through Japanese, Chinese, Korean, Spanish and Italian accents on the radio and then understand what they are saying or where they are or where they are going.  My hat is off to the controllers who have to deal with these folks.

Example: ATC: Alarius 1234, say intentions.

Alarius 1234: Oh, I going to be China Airlines 737 co-pilot.

Dead silence.

[a2capt]

Do you have Hotel?

No,  I need make reserve room.

-----

I know, it's a joke floating around. I also heard exactly that at KRNM one afternoon. 

I opted to skip that airport in my county tour that afternoon. Forget it.

[davidsinn]

Except minimum wage is $7.40

I'm unskilled labor working at an amusement park and make that an hour. I can't see pilots getting less than minimum wage when they have 6K-10K in training just to fly. And I won't even start on the whole labor law violations discussion.

Minimum wage varies by state. The federal minimum wage was $5.50 or so last time I looked it up a couple of years ago. Some states have laws which increase that - like USAFAUX said, IL is $8.50 or so.

Federal min wage is over $7/hrs. That is the bare minimum for anywhere in the US.

[Eclipse]

The current Federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour.

The highest locally mandated wage over the Federal is San Francisco, CA at $9.92.

Tipped employees start at a Federally mandated $2.13 and go to $8(CA) per hour.

States that have a lower (or no) locally mandated minimum must comply with the Federal rate.

[SARDOC]

"People" have no idea what they want, nor how airplanes work.  You could put an actor in a pilot's uniform at the front door
and he could walk out with the jetway and they would have no idea who or what is flying the plane.

The Problem with that is the "actor" is going to have to be paid more than they pay pilots now. 

[Eclipse]

"People" have no idea what they want, nor how airplanes work.  You could put an actor in a pilot's uniform at the front door
and he could walk out with the jetway and they would have no idea who or what is flying the plane.

The Problem with that is the "actor" is going to have to be paid more than they pay pilots now.

Maybe the pilots should dump ALPA and join SAG.

[DakRadz]

Except minimum wage is $7.40

I'm unskilled labor working at an amusement park and make that an hour. I can't see pilots getting less than minimum wage when they have 6K-10K in training just to fly. And I won't even start on the whole labor law violations discussion.

$6-$10K?!  Its about $40K to get a commercial/instrument SEL which is the bare min to get a paying job.

Understood, sir- I didn't know the commercial and other higher flight certification costs, therefore I used what numbers I DO know- the cost just to simply fly yourself. Obviously tow pilots for gliders have more advanced training.

[JeffDG]

"People" have no idea what they want, nor how airplanes work.  You could put an actor in a pilot's uniform at the front door
and he could walk out with the jetway and they would have no idea who or what is flying the plane.

The Problem with that is the "actor" is going to have to be paid more than they pay pilots now.

Maybe the pilots should dump ALPA and join SAG.

No...the problem is you should never choose as your profession something that people do as a hobby.

[Flying Pig]

I did.  Dont give up hope!   Where most aspiring pilots mess up is they get married have kids and buy a house and then wonder why they dont have any money to train.

[SarDragon]

BTDT. Now that the kids are gone, and I have money, I have medical issues.