Shortage of pilots?

[davidsinn]

This came across the cadetblog this morning

Good news for cadets. The front page story in today's USA Today reports that America is facing a pilot shortage. According to the story, Boeing forecasts a need for 460,000 new pilots over the next 18 years. The demand for pilots will be so great that the industry could face a shortage. If you're a cadet and you love to fly, it makes sense to consider pursuing a career as a professional pilot. Blue skies for today's teens.

Wouldn't a solution be to allow SMs to take flight training with CAP aircraft? I'm young enough to have a career as a pilot but never will because I can't afford the insanely high cost of entry.

[Flying Pig]

Is thats why pilots are sitting around the airport looking for jobs.  We have had a "pilot shortage" since I started flying at 15 years old.  Flight schools are laying off CFIs with more in line wanting jobs. 
Same with the helicopter industry....Oh the sky is falling, the Vietnam pilots are all starting to retire.  Most of theose Vietnam era Huey drivers have long since retired and they still use that argument.  100 years from now we will still be dreading the day all the Vietnam helicopter pilots retire.
For every Vietnam era helo driver, there are 15 brand new CFI's standing in line right behind them.

I dont think there is a pilot shortage.  Its an experience shortage.  You can have all the 255 hour CFI's you want, thats not who gets jobs.  I talk to guys in their late 40's and 50's all the time who are working on their pilots licenses wanting a career change. Yeah OK buddy.  Its not a commercial drivers license where you can start the day you get your cert.   Enjoy being in your late 40s working as a CFI flying Piper Tomahawks for the next 1000 hrs.

Yes, I believe the aviation industry will always need pilots, but I doubt there will ever be a shortage of them.  I dont think turning CAP into a flight school for adults who want to become airline pilots is the answer.  Maybe the airlines should start their own flight schools like India, China, Taiwan and Japan have done where they hire people and train them from zero time to Multi-Engine Commercial with gauranteed job?

[Eclipse]

Flying is no longer "new" and is routine enough to be just another job to most people (a product of their own success)

Deregulation, 911, high fuel prices, and more attention to shareholder value than business sense have made being an entry-level pilot
a poverty-level job, especially for a regional or local carrier.

Learning to fly is expensive, no longer within reach for the average person as a hobby, especially if they do anything else, and the
traditional avenues of military flying are drying up as the military shrinks and some pilots are moved to UAV's.

The above, as well as urban sprawl, anti-noise activists (ugh, STOP O'HARE EXPANSION - gimme a break), and tree huggers have
reduced the number of airports we have to foster general aviation.  Now in major metro areas there are few, if any, GA airports,
and you have to go pretty far out to find one, which breaks the paradigm of an easy commute.

None of the above is going to change any time soon.  If anything, it is more likely that technology will reduce the need for
more pilots.

Just as many people feel the last fighter pilots have already been born, aircraft that fly themselves already exist, including
takeoff and landing, and their widespread adoption is probably likely within the lifetime of anyone reading this today.

[Майор Хаткевич]

What everyone said...

You hear of the $250,000 jobs, and the next day about the $19,000 jobs.

Quite the range, eh?

[lordmonar]

This is just one of those future vs today things.

Of course right now, today there is not a shortage....but if you read in the article there are several factors at play here and all of them are long term issues.

-Asia expanding their air routes.....that means flying jobs in Asia...not the US.
-Boom-Bust hiring.  They hired a lot of pilots in the 80's and 90's who are all now approaching mandatory retirement age.
-Work/Rest cycle changes at the FAA.....means the airlines are going to have to either cut flights or hire more pilots.

So....I can see where they are going with this.  The question now is.....Will America be able to meet that demand or will it go to some other nation?

[Flyinsarge]

Well I am up to it- and I sure hope flying won't become "just another job" because I have set all my life goals towards becoming a pilot and I want it to still seem like a notch above everyone else's jobs ....

[Thrashed]

These articles are put out by flight schools.  There is no pilot shortage, but there may be one in the future. Who wants to work for nothing?  I work for a major airline and fly Boeings. Most pilots at my airline have not seen a raise in 20 years. Most of us have taken 35%+ paycuts!  Pilots make 6 times less than they did in the '70's. I make less than most flight attendants and baggage handlers. I have a Master's degree, 14,000 hours, 6 airline type ratings, and have NOTHING to show for it. My pay is so low, I live paycheck to paycheck (I know what you're thinking and you would be wrong; I drive a 12 year old Corolla with 190K on it and live in a $100K small home that the bank owns), I have no pention, I own nothing, I work weekends, I work Holidays, I'm away from my family. I like flying airplanes.  I've done GA, corporate, airline, etc. I have been flying since 1982 and have 21 years until retirement.  I don't like the way I'm treated by coworkers, the company, the public. I'm tired of paying for the customer's fuel, raise the ticket prices! Where's the money and respect that a professional pilot deserves?  If my airline was only 99.99% safe, we would have a crash every 4 days!  Doctors kill thousands a year by mistake.  I deserve better than I'm getting.

The only reason for a pilot shortage in the future is because no young person today see this "career" as worth it, and that is because it's not. Why go to college and flight school and spend tons of money on a career that pays less than the guy driving the UPS van? 

I don't encourage any young person to get into this business. Good luck to any of you who try.

[lordmonar]

Sorry for your pain.......however, how is that different then just about any other career.  My 22 years in the military was just like that.

[Flying Pig]

Hey my counties Chief Financial Officer just approved his own 18% pay raise at the same time I accepted a 10% pay cut.  I think we are all in the wrong business! Aviation is a strange animal. My only experience in aviation is as an LE pilot.  I most certainly dont think I would be flying if not for that angle.

[Flyinsarge]

But airliners are so cool! Where else could I fly something that size?

[RiverAux]

Basic supply/demand issue -- pilot wages have been going down and entry level at the small airlines is embarrassingly low, therefore it is pretty clear that there is an overabundance of pilots.  If there was a shortage, wages would be rising. 

[SarDragon]

Maybe the airlines should start their own flight schools like India, China, Taiwan and Japan have done where they hire people and train them from zero time to Multi-Engine Commercial with gauranteed job?

United used to do that back in the '70s or '80s. I worked with a guy who did that. Walked in off the street with zero hours, and ended up in whatever was top of the line at the time. He medically retired (cardio), but said it was a great job while it lasted.

[blackrain]

Bottom line is the airline business model sustainable as it stands? That will determine how many pilots are needed.

As I understand it, a lot of  airlines revenue comes from full fare business travelers and cargo carried in the hold. Now with things like video teleconferencing do as many businessmen have to travel as much? I don't know. I do know I use regular teleconferencing as means to stay in touch. Even classes are more and more on-line. I would guess everyone else is traveling using at least some discretionary income. As oil prices increase then all sectors of the economy take a hit. While people have to pony up to put gas in the car to get to work, flying is usually not as critical for most people. This happens just as the airlines themselves are taking a hit in paying more for fuel. As far as cargo, exactly what cargo is so critical it has to be somewhere overnight that people are willing to pay a premium? Some things ARE critical enough but I think people will take a harder look at cost benefit in the future.

Thrash...what say you

[Thrashed]

There are many factors affecting ticket costs and pay. We do make a lot on business travel, cargo, and international. Domestic is pretty much a bust.  Low cost airlines have lowered the standard and cost so much, no one can make money. Internet sites have hurt the costs too. Before the internet, people went to the travel agent and paid what it cost to fly from A to B. Now people go on the internet and search for the lowest cost by the penny. Airlines are forced to lower costs to compete with cheap airlines. People don't want to pay for safety, quality, service, etc., they only want to save a buck on their flight. Airlines reduce service to try to compensate; no pillows, no free food, no blankets, no penuts, etc. Now it is so bad airlines are charging for everything to break even. Bag fees, seat fees, etc. Fuel is a major expense. Fuel is up about 6 times what is was in the 1970's. Which is the number (6X) that pilot pay is down. Coincidence?

If flying an airliner cool? Yea. I've flown over the North Pole to China. I've flown through Iranian airspace to India. I've left my hotel in Rome to tour the colliseum. I've been in every major city in the Americas and Europe. I've had some memorable flights to some cool places. I've also spent time in some nasty places and nasty hotels. Airlines fly everywhere, not just the fun places.

Watch the new TV series this fall: Pan Am.  That is how is was. That is how it should be. Today's air travel is one step above Greyhound bus service (who's drivers make more than me!)

[Flying Pig]

Today's air travel is one step above Greyhound bus service (who's drivers make more than me!)

Now thats wrong....

[Майор Хаткевич]

Today's air travel is one step above Greyhound bus service (who's drivers make more than me!)

Now thats wrong....

No kidding.

As a young and impressionable cadet I wanted to fly for the military, and of course airlines as the backup/retirement plan. That was something I picked up from another cadet. Now I'm a Finance major, and he's done with school in 3 years, and is a CFI. Hope him the best.

[simon]

Fly for fun, not for work.

[Flyinsarge]

How 'bout  for the Air Force?

[blackrain]

How 'bout  for the Air Force?

I think the number of Air Force flying billets will be dropping somewhat in the future. Largely due to more UAVs and fewer fighters. The next generation fighters are more capable and WAY more expensive. That will likely limit their numbers in the Air Force inventory. IMHO

[A.Member]

How 'bout  for the Air Force?

I think the number of Air Force flying billets will be dropping somewhat in the future. Largely due to more UAVs and fewer fighters. The next generation fighters are more capable and WAY more expensive. That will likely limit their numbers in the Air Force inventory. IMHO

So, don't do it because it might be hard?