ES Mission Trends?

Started by RiverAux, November 21, 2021, 03:35:44 PM

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RiverAux

Anyone have access to data on trends in the number of CAP ES missions (by type) over the last 10 or so years? 

sardak

These are the numbers from the CAP Annual Reports. The numbers and description are as described in the reports.  There was no consistent way of reporting the numbers, or even where they were in the reports, until 2018, when a stats table was printed at the end of the report. The state and partner categories were also new in 2018.  There is a budget for CD every year, even in years showing no missions. The monitoring of 121.5 MHz by Cospas-Sarsat ended 1 February 2009.

                            Disaster                 State      Partner and Local
Year      SAR          Relief        CD       Support    Support
2008   > 2,500        -           > 250           -             -
2009   > 1,600        -               -              -             -
2010    no report      -             -              -             -
2011       -             123            -              -             -
2012     703           52              -              -             -
2013     619           142            200           -             -
2014     669           64              -               -             -
2015     863           196 DR and other        -            -
2016     1,265         164 DR and other        -            -
2017     798            -                 -             -              -
2018     1,012         28              5              69           -
2019     845            61              7              91           224
2020     756           101             -              84           201

Eclipse


"That Others May Zoom"

baronet68

Quote from: Eclipse on November 23, 2021, 04:44:21 PMHere's a graph...

-- image redacted --

Not quite as much gloom-and-doom as your 'graph' would indicate. 

Yes, down from 10+ years ago... however, the overall trendline since 2012 appears to be in a gradual upward direction.


Michael Moore, Maj, CAP
National Recruiting & Retention Manager

PHall

Before 2009 most of our ES missions were ELTs. After the COSPAS/SARSAT turn off our missions dropped, a lot, and we had to diversify. And that's when the AP work for DR missions picked up.
Times change and if an organization doesn't keep up they'll be left behind to wither and die.

Eclipse

#5
Part of the discussion is what and how much is accessible to the average member in flyover.
Not to mention >what< is classified as >what<.

As an example, the cell phone team is now responsible for the vast majority of the
saves. Great for those saved, irrelevant to anyone else in CAP except for the team, and
the marketing people.

Green flag and escorts are irrelevant to the majority of the membership.

Less then 10 states still do CD.

UAVs have passed the organization by and are largely irrelevant to the majority of members.

Etc., etc.,

The bread and butter non-distress ELTs are basically gone, and DR isn't replacing those, even
a little (as we continue to remind, CAP has no DR doctrine, and still features payphones
in its Ground Training).

The organization is being marginalized and moved to obscurity, with no published plan or
effort to change that, while at the same time it continues to tout successes from 20 - 80
years as relevent to todays members, and / or market things as if the small, boutique missions
it still gets are scalable, or even meaningful in a National, programmatic sense.


"That Others May Zoom"

N6RVT

Quote from: sardak on November 23, 2021, 04:38:54 PMThese are the numbers from the CAP Annual Reports. The numbers and description are as described in the reports.  There was no consistent way of reporting the numbers, or even where they were in the reports, until 2018, when a stats table was printed at the end of the report. The state and partner categories were also new in 2018.  There is a budget for CD every year, even in years showing no missions. The monitoring of 121.5 MHz by Cospas-Sarsat ended 1 February 2009.

                            Disaster                State      Partner and Local
Year      SAR          Relief        CD      Support    Support
2008  > 2,500        -          > 250          -            -
2009  > 1,600        -              -              -            -
2010    no report      -            -              -            -
2011      -            123            -              -            -
2012    703          52              -              -            -
2013    619          142            200          -            -
2014    669          64              -              -            -
2015    863          196 DR and other        -            -
2016    1,265        164 DR and other        -            -
2017    798            -                -            -              -
2018    1,012        28              5              69          -
2019    845            61              7              91          224
2020    756          101            -              84          201

So in 2018 I was on every CD mission CAP flew, and in 2020 I must have just imagined being on one (Only one, but I could swear it actually happened)

N6RVT

Quote from: Eclipse on November 23, 2021, 09:35:27 PMThe organization is being marginalized and moved to obscurity, with no published plan or effort to change that, while at the same time it continues to tout successes from 20 - 80 years as relevant to todays members, and / or market things as if the small, boutique missions
it still gets are scalable, or even meaningful in a National, programmatic sense.

Our Observer training is still 100% focused on a mission that in 47 years I have done exactly three times, and our ground team manual and training still reflects standards nobody else has recognized as valid since 2005.

At least with my other group the long term prospects of people being drunk and stupid in boats is actually pretty good.

Imouttahere

Our bread and butter (though thinly spread) here in Maine has been aerial photography for FEMA and other partners, as well as simple searches for lost hikers and grandmas. It hardly keeps us busy but the calls do come in.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

etodd

Quote from: usaf_defender on November 24, 2021, 11:41:13 AMOur bread and butter (though thinly spread) here in Maine has been aerial photography for FEMA and other partners, as well as simple searches for lost hikers and grandmas. It hardly keeps us busy but the calls do come in.

And thats a big part of the problem. Several Wings are like yours (California, for example and others) stay somewhat busy in certain jobs.

But dozens (maybe the majority) of Wings just are not getting the calls, and members are training for those calls that never come.

I don't know how it can happen.  But the idea of CAP being the same everywhere needs to change. Each Wing needs to find its niche that it can actually sell. Train for that, and forget the rest. Some Wings could probably just lose ES altogether and just concentrate on the Cadet program.
"Don't try to explain it, just bow your head
Breathe in, breathe out, move on ..."

NIN

Quote from: baronet68 on November 23, 2021, 08:15:13 PMYes, down from 10+ years ago... however, the overall trendline since 2012 appears to be in a gradual upward direction.

"yes, I want to return to the technological sophistication of pre-2008, before things like ADS-B and 406mhz beacons. If airplanes go missing, they need to stay that way until we find them!"
 -- Nobody ever

(Must I add the <sarcasm> tag? Or is it clear?}
Darin Ninness, Col, CAP
Wing Dude
I like to have Difficult Adult Conversations™
Nothing posted on CAPTalk should be considered policy unless otherwise stated
The contents of this post are Copyright © 2007-2023 by NIN. All rights are reserved. Specific permission is given to quote this post here on CAP-Talk only.

JohhnyD

Quote from: etodd on November 24, 2021, 10:04:03 PMBut dozens (maybe the majority) of Wings just are not getting the calls, and members are training for those calls that never come.
One reason we get calls, is we FRiendraise. We go out in the community a couple dozen times a year and let people know what missions we can do, and they call! Odd how that works.

We staffed the County EM ops center when the COVID mission started, we staffed smoke shelters, we do photo missions for a variety of agencies - we stay busy. The local LEOs know we exist, the local EM people know we exist and we get called.

Fubar

Quote from: JohhnyD on November 25, 2021, 02:02:06 AMWe staffed the County EM ops center when the COVID mission started, we staffed smoke shelters, we do photo missions for a variety of agencies - we stay busy. The local LEOs know we exist, the local EM people know we exist and we get called.

This probably has the big benefit of not requiring any special training, just call, show up, and do something useful.

Eclipse

Quote from: NIN on November 24, 2021, 10:30:56 PM
Quote from: baronet68 on November 23, 2021, 08:15:13 PMYes, down from 10+ years ago... however, the overall trendline since 2012 appears to be in a gradual upward direction.

"yes, I want to return to the technological sophistication of pre-2008, before things like ADS-B and 406mhz beacons. If airplanes go missing, they need to stay that way until we find them!"
 -- Nobody ever

(Must I add the <sarcasm> tag? Or is it clear?}

Must I add the "last horse and buggy whip maker" tag?

"That Others May Zoom"

Eclipse

Quote from: Fubar on November 25, 2021, 02:31:04 AM
Quote from: JohhnyD on November 25, 2021, 02:02:06 AMWe staffed the County EM ops center when the COVID mission started, we staffed smoke shelters, we do photo missions for a variety of agencies - we stay busy. The local LEOs know we exist, the local EM people know we exist and we get called.

This probably has the big benefit of not requiring any special training, just call, show up, and do something useful.

Yep - pointing to the issue - CAP isn't "all things to all people", and if it marketed itself as such,
the numbers would be even worse.

CAP markets a very specific set of skills, requires specific training, and specific clothing and equipment,
emphasizes its "professional volunteers", and routinely threatens the wrath of the legal profession
on anyone who would even consider self-deploying, performing duties for which they are not trained,
uses unapproved equipment, or shows up with the wrong MAJCOM on their onsie...

...and then it literally and simply ignores all the above when the waters are rising, just so it can
get in the game.  The best is when they start handing out the awards for people who do the above.

"That Others May Zoom"

RiverAux

I've got to say that I'm a bit suspicious of those SAR numbers.  Even if you give a healthy discount for cell phone team missions, those seem more than a bit high for real-world actual REDCAP (any other descriptors?) missions.  Granted, these are not evenly distributed but it seems to me if we were getting nearly 600-1000 real missions a year there would have just been a flood of public affairs articles, facebook posts, etc. about them (even allowing for the many areas that probably don't have an active PIO around). 

The DR numbers "feel" about right to me.  Which sort of makes me doubt my feeling about the SAR numbers since I'm assuming they just came out of a WMIRs report. 

etodd

Quote from: RiverAux on November 28, 2021, 11:01:03 PMI've got to say that I'm a bit suspicious of those SAR numbers. ... if we were getting nearly 600-1000 real missions a year there would have just been a flood of public affairs articles,


How many SAR "missions" are opened, but then are closed before we have teams actually activated? Or canceled as the CAP members arrive at the van or plane location to start loading up? Subject found before we get started? Someone probably has access to more realistic data than the mission numbers listed above.
"Don't try to explain it, just bow your head
Breathe in, breathe out, move on ..."

RiverAux

There could be something to that.

AirDX

Quote from: etodd on November 29, 2021, 04:04:21 AMHow many SAR "missions" are opened, but then are closed before we have teams actually activated? Or canceled as the CAP members arrive at the van or plane location to start loading up? Subject found before we get started? Someone probably has access to more realistic data than the mission numbers listed above.

Look in WMIRS at all the A1 missions that are opened, only to be closed a couple of hours later with no sorties or other activity associated with them. There are quite a few.

CAP's ES niche is small and shrinking fast. Training is disjointed, paperwork-intensive, and not matched to any current reality. We responded well to last year's COVID ground logistics missions, but that's over a year ago and quickly disappearing in the rear view mirror (but hey, we got two ribbons out of it so far). And of course, all you really needed for that was a CAP driver's license and a uniform and you were good to go.

I rejoined CAP in 2009 to scratch my ES itch in a wing that had (and still has) very strong CD and homeland security ties to the state. I left in 2015 and I'm in a much different area (and era), very rural, and far from wing HQ in another state with different relationships. The ES phone never rings. I scratch my itch serving as a reserve deputy sheriff and EMT.

CAP is a great organization with an amazing history. We need to rethink and restructure what we do and what we say to match the current times, or CAP will continue to shrink. 
Believe in fate, but lean forward where fate can see you.

heliodoc

Phone rings rarely in my AOR, also

Being a "newly minted CAP IC3 and a former ICT3 wildland firefighter before it became Type 5 (everyday) as defined by both National Wildfire Coordinating Group and FEMA, attending FEMAs L950 Incident Commander course, I see many a problem in the program not changing fast enough. ES niche in many a State is governed by the Sheriffs Office as per statute and sometimes many of the LE types do not want to work with volunteers due various issues

Handing out CAPs "CAPabilities brochures" spells out shiny equipment, radios, etc and not the necessity of MOUs that WORK.  I have written aerial detection MOU (5 year) for the State I am in. Provides some rotation of aircraft and personnel and aircrew experience.  CAP did not teach me anything about ICS or MOUs. It taught me Search when I was a cadet and SM and that helped me frame what CAP does as well as a number of other volunteer SAR groups equally equipped (minus aircraft) unless requested to other agencies

Maybe that where the rubber hits the road. Shiny aircraft are not always the answer, how to frame an MOU, talk about ability to deliver and not overpromise is the key. Culture change will need to be imminent if we are able to survive.

Maybe CAP needs to understand that there alot of legwork (during work and after work) to get the Missions done and go out and do the public contact. I know Bob Ditch is doing his best with the EMI approved MTT and that is the forward thinking that CAP needed 20 years ago when the ICS train was rollin down the track

Disaster Relief and a disaster relief curriculum and integration with local emergency managers and showing up as a SUPPORT function ready to work is key and worrying less about bling and uniforms, well where I come from not tooo many EMs or rural Sheriffs Offices are impressed with our structure and "rank"


I agree with AirDX.......CAP needs to change and its going to take a large CULTURE shift and change to work the ground side.....not everything is AIR related...I can say that because...well, I am pilot, too.  I realize those hard cold facts of life after serving numerous years in Army Aviation, wildland fire, and the last 10+ years in EM