Covid Remobilization, Updated process and charts Jan 2022

[Eclipse]

Covid Remobilization Chart:
https://www.gocivilairpatrol.com/covid-19-remobilization

How Wings Transition:
https://www.gocivilairpatrol.com/media/cms/How_Wings_Transition_Between_Phases_C9B98B2A47861.pdf

Remobilization of the Membership Narrated Briefing:
https://www.gocivilairpatrol.com/media/cms/Updated_Phases_Briefing_1_D80FE862ABC27.ppsx

New map (with color coding that doesn't match the table directly below it)...



Clear, concise instructions, exactly what the membership needs.

[Jester]

That's an improvement.

[NovemberWhiskey]

Are we supposed to ask about vaccination status now when people are getting ready to ride in a van together? Previously, the guidance about vaccination status only affected personal behavior (masking), but now we're supposed to limit the occupancy of vehicles if there are unvaccinated individuals present, not sure how that is going to work if we can't ask.

[Eclipse]

we can't ask

Where does it say CAP can't ask?

[jeders]

we can't ask

Where does it say CAP can't ask?

I'm sure he's referring to this line in the 2 June 2021 Memo from CAP/CC,

Rather than inquiring about individuals' vaccination status, unit leaders should emphasize the members should act with integrity and follow the guidance appropriate to their status.

Or this line from the 18 May 2021 memo on the same topic,

If a member voluntarily discloses that they are not vaccinated the member will be expected to wear a face mask and continue to socially distance.

Neither of those memos actually say that we can't ask about vaccine status, and in fact I consider it an integrity and excellence issue to not ask and not to enforce the requirements on those who aren't vaccinated; especially when we know that individuals aren't vaccinated because of there comments on social media and elsewhere. However, the memos do appear to give cover if as an HSO or CC you are not comfortable asking about a condition that may affect the entire unit.

[NovemberWhiskey]

Right - it's a "should not ask" rather than "must not ask" in the prior memos. Personally, I agree that this seems to be an unnecessary level of deference to sensitivity about vaccination status, but that tone has been set from NHQ.

[TheSkyHornet]

I think that tone is being set from the fact that the majority of CAP members are not involved in any military-affiliated operation, and that most are "general common folks" from across the United States (and territories), most of whom are working with youths much like a school or community organization.

Vaccine mandates have not struck most communities across the country. Why would it matter in the same respect throughout most of CAP?

[Eclipse]

I missed this above in the OP:
https://www.gocivilairpatrol.com/media/cms/Phase_Chart_1_4749C742A5335.pdf

[NovemberWhiskey]

Vaccine mandates have not struck most communities across the country. Why would it matter in the same respect throughout most of CAP?

This is not a "mandate" issue. No-one is saying members must be vaccinated to participate in CAP; but NHQ is now asking groups of members to behave differently if one of them is unvaccinated. Previously it was "please wear a mask if you are unvaccinated", now it's "you may only board this van if you are vaccinated, otherwise we're going to have to do two runs". I don't understand the tip-toeing around the question.

[yolo]

I missed this above in the OP:
https://www.gocivilairpatrol.com/media/cms/Phase_Chart_1_4749C742A5335.pdf

I for one am relieved that the new Phase 1 guidelines let us meet up to 25 people, so now small squadrons are finally be able to meet again.

[Holding Pattern]

Glad to see that common sense is starting to prevail upstairs.

[Eclipse]

COVID-19 Phase Transition Guidance - Updated 2 Feb 2022
https://www.gocivilairpatrol.com/media/cms/COVID19_Phase_Guidance_FA6D70CD1ED8F.pdf

Documents now combined, but don't appear to have changed.

[Eclipse]

NJWG becomes the first to re-enter the ring with a P2 Transition on 8 Feb.



Meanwhile Idaho is still NORDO as the national map starts to rapidly lighten up...





Dear NHQ,

Please use a screen cap of the COVIDACTNOW map instead of whatever the heck
you're using for the CAP map, or at least find something better.

Also your map colors still don't match the table directly below it.

[Eclipse]

And now...coming in on the inside corner are MDWG & NATCAP which jump direct to Phase 3.


https://www.gocivilairpatrol.com/covid-19-remobilization

While nationally the maps are getting lighter by the day...
https://www.covidactnow.org/?s=28951774





Idaho is still NORDO on national reporting, with local news
reports indicating there are nearly 40k outstanding tests to
be completed.
https://localnews8.com/health/coronavirus/2022/02/09/covid-19-updates-2565-new-idaho-covid-19-cases-40-new-deaths/

Also NHQ table has still not been corrected.

[Eclipse]

No change to the CAP map, but the US maps just keep getting better...





Interestingly, Idaho is back in the game reporting their vaccination levels, but hasn't caught
up the risk level reporting.

https://www.covidactnow.org/?s=29011780

[NovemberWhiskey]

NYWG is moving to phase 3 on Tuesday 15th as well.

[yolo]

NJWG to Phase 3 on Tuesday too.

[Spam]

Georgia is going to 2 on Thursday.
... onward to full normal ops, ASAP!!!

V/r
Spam

[Eclipse]

[AirDX]

Wisconsin going to Phase 2 on Thusday.

[Eclipse]

No change on the CAP map, but the national ones keep marching forward.

[Slim]

MIWG back to phase 2 as of today.

[Eclipse]

Like an early Spring, the map begins to bloom green, and where once
there was nothing but Zoom-based sadness, magically there is a new
day (or probably evening, most units meet on weeknights) dawning!
(Yet somehow the table directly below it still doesn't use the colors properly.)



Nevada enters the arena and Connecticut takes a step back.

[Spam]

That CAP map is starting to look pretty Irish... just in time for St. Pattys Day in March!

(Spam Approves. Lets add more green, shift the national policy rubric to individual ORM and be done).

Cheers
Spam

[jeders]

TXWG to move to Phase 2 next Tuesday, the 22nd.

[Slim]

TXWG to move to Phase 2 next Tuesday, the 22nd.

Same here in MIWG

[AirDX]

WIWG is on to Phase 3 tomorrow, 22 February.

[Eclipse]

No change in the CAP map, but the others continue to move in the right direction,
including Idaho getting back in the ring...

[Eclipse]

The CAP map continues its march toward a Green Bay Packers uniform...


https://www.gocivilairpatrol.com/covid-19-remobilization

(While the table directly below it continues to maintain its "you can't make me" incorrect color coding)

Meanwhile, the US risk maps continue sliding the right way...

[RiverAux]

I find it interesting that the source that CAP wants to use for its data to make these decisions seems to evaluate the risk quite differently than CAP -- places rated as High Risk are basically treated by CAP as if COVID isn't much of a thing. 

Hey, CAP can make its own risk evaluations, but when put together with its preferred data source its a bit jarring.

[Spam]

River, I very much agree - it is interesting, and I admit jarring.

Yet, what is more jarring is the degree to which necessary data itself on which a broad range of policy calls are made is highly suspect, unavailable, and being withheld from release.  See https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/20/health/covid-cdc-data.html

V/r
Spam

[TheSkyHornet]

I find it interesting that the source that CAP wants to use for its data to make these decisions seems to evaluate the risk quite differently than CAP -- places rated as High Risk are basically treated by CAP as if COVID isn't much of a thing. 

Hey, CAP can make its own risk evaluations, but when put together with its preferred data source its a bit jarring.

And you basically need to be at less than 1 in 100,000 (0.016%) to be considered a "non-COVID" area. We're at 14.7/100,000 statewide (High Risk), and 8.4/100,000 in the county (Medium Risk).

I feel like we're changing the definition of words at this point. High, Medium....come on.

[Eclipse]

CAP map updates, in some cases, are running ahead of notifing the
respective wing.



(apparently the table is just going to go to it's grave being incorrect)

[Eclipse]

No change this week (so far) to the CAP map.
As if by magic the map is updated (but the table remains broken)



But tThe risk maps have been changing daily, and interestingly, not
always in the right direction.  California and Michigan, for example, moved back up
a level in risk since the 22nd, and Washington state had dropped off
reporting for a few days.

[HandsomeWalt_USMC]

MAWG is back to Phase III per an email from MAWG/CC Sunday.

[Eclipse]

The new phone books are in and this season's color is GREEN!



As happened last year there's a little bit of daily flip-flopping state-to-state, but the
risk trends are going in the right direction.

[TheSkyHornet]

An interesting point that I'm hearing is that there's no real clarity on on "what happens next?" There isn't really any guidance on a Phase 4 or return to normal operations.

One of the recent comments I heard was "We don't really know how to get out of Phase 3, or if we ever will. Is it even a thing?"

I think most wings are finding that there really isn't a difference for them between Phase 3 and OPNML.

[Eclipse]

Based on published guidance, there is no Phase IV, per se, and Phase III is essentially
Ops Normal, with notes indicating in some areas that CDC guidance must be followed.

There are still a number of areas where TSA, CDC, or local mandates still apply, so
if an activity takes place somewhere a local mandate is more strict CAP would still have
to comply, regardless of CAP's posture.

Beyond that, once all the maps are equally green, then presumably it's the "new normal" whatever
that entails. 

[NovemberWhiskey]

The doc does specifically say that "return to normal" also does exist independent of phase III: "There is also a Phase 0 and "return to normal" that are not shown above" and the table of required behaviors does have "routine ops" which I assume represents that state.

I agree it's not substantively different though.

[Eclipse]

[Eclipse]

[Jester]

TIL my wing is in Phase 3.

[Eclipse]

TIL my wing is in Phase 3.

It appears a number of wings are telling NHQ they have had a phase change, but not
their members, or it is days+ delayed from posting on the CAP map.

[Eclipse]

The CAP map is just about ready for St. Paddy's day...



While the risk maps are moving more slowly in the same direction.

[Eclipse]

The CAP map was apparently updated twice yesterday.

[Eclipse]

I don't think anyone thought the map would be this green for St. Paddy's day...

[Toad1168]

Saw on the news that the White House will now be using hospitalization and death numbers instead of positive case counts as a determining factor.  Wondering if that will be the next metric we move to.

[Eclipse]

Annnnnnd, "just like that", after nearly two years of various stand downs, pauses,
and phases, CAP is essentially at OPS Normal.



The world as a whole is moving slower, but in the same direction.





And with the (hopefully) retirement of the Great Map®, the incorrect table
goes quietly into the good night, holding on to its incorrect colors to the last.

Say Goodnight, Gracie...

[SarDragon]

Goodnight, Gracie.

[Shuman 14]

Goodnight, Gracie.

You're dating yourself.

[AirDX]

Now we need to keep an eye on the BA.2 variant. Its course will tell us a lot about where this pandemic is going.

From How dangerous is BA.2, the new COVID-19 variant?:

Will we see a surge?

We might see a small bump in terms of cases, and that's probably among individuals who were neither vaccinated nor exposed to the virus before. That's the last niche in which the virus is able to spread.

Will the continuous spread be the norm going forward?

We expect people to get re-infected continuously, similar to other seasonal coronaviruses. Antibodies decline very quickly and people can get infected.

The true issue here is that we're entering a different phase of the pandemic, where the virus has become not as deadly and we have all the tools we need. We need to now assess whether it's a risk to the general population vs. a risk to an individual person.

[Eclipse]

These maps have started moving in the wrong direction over the last week or so, with
three states back in the red zone.

[CAPCom]

These maps have started moving in the wrong direction over the last week or so, with
three states back in the red zone.

Use of the word "risk" is pretty vague.  What, specifically, is the risk?  Testing positive for the virus, being hospitalized for the virus, dying from the virus?  I'm guessing it's testing positive.  Which, in case you haven't noticed, isn't a big deal anymore.  Or am I reading the map/definition completely wrong?

[Paul Creed III]

These maps have started moving in the wrong direction over the last week or so, with
three states back in the red zone.

Use of the word "risk" is pretty vague.  What, specifically, is the risk?  Testing positive for the virus, being hospitalized for the virus, dying from the virus?  I'm guessing it's testing positive.  Which, in case you haven't noticed, isn't a big deal anymore.  Or am I reading the map/definition completely wrong?

Risk is defined by the site here: https://www.covidactnow.org/covid-risk-levels-metrics.

[CAPCom]

These maps have started moving in the wrong direction over the last week or so, with
three states back in the red zone.

Use of the word "risk" is pretty vague.  What, specifically, is the risk?  Testing positive for the virus, being hospitalized for the virus, dying from the virus?  I'm guessing it's testing positive.  Which, in case you haven't noticed, isn't a big deal anymore.  Or am I reading the map/definition completely wrong?

Risk is defined by the site here: https://www.covidactnow.org/covid-risk-levels-metrics.

My point was in relation to the map and it's use of "risk".  I know what the official definition of COVID risk is.  I don't think the map came from the CDC, did it?  Even so, the link you took us to is not to the CDC or even a university/school of medicine.  It's to a non-profit entity that is (in their own words), "Act Now Coalition is an independent 501(c)(3) nonprofit founded by volunteers in March 2020. Covid Act Now is our COVID-focused initiative to help people make informed decisions by providing timely and accurate data about COVID in the U.S."  Maybe I'm wrong about this particular group, but usually groups like that are promoting their own agenda for their own purposes.  They aren't regulated nor are they required to give the unadulterated truth and there's no outside accountability and oversight.  So doesn't this mean THEY are defining "risk" based on their own agenda and bias?  I think it might.

[Eclipse]

Let's not go political on this again.

NHQ adopted this map as the basis of phase decisions, which is the only relevent part of any conversation on this.
FWIW, CAP is an official partner along with about 20 other organizations, including the National Guard.

As someone who has watched these daily for two years, they have mirrored other sites and
general news sources on the state of the information provided, with the only issue being
lagging a bit behind real-time due to the foibles of state reporting.

Like it or not, the infection rate trends are moving in the wrong direction.

[Eclipse]

To the above end, today's maps...





For those scoring at home, you'll notice the difference between the map from just a week ago (below)

(04/11/2022)


(more yellow than orange, less red)

As of writing this, the TSA has extended the travel mask mandates at least another 15 days (was to expire 30 April), and a number of municipalities and other agencies are considering re-instituting them, with Philadelphia leading the charge.

[CAPCom]

Let's not go political on this again.

Nothing I wrote is politically related in any way.

[Eclipse]

So this happened...

"As of April 2022, Covid Act Now's community level framework follows the CDC's Community Level framework. The community level framework looks at three key metrics to assess COVID across the U.S.: weekly new reported cases, weekly COVID hospital admissions, and percent of staffed inpatient beds occupied by COVID patients.

According to the CDC, this new community level framework better reflects the risk of a medically significant disease and healthcare strain. The rise of vaccines and immunity from infection has greatly reduced the risk of severe illness and death for most people, and therefore community prevention strategies and individual behaviors should be driven by an understanding of the potential strain on local hospital systems, in addition to cases."

More detail here:
https://www.covidactnow.org/covid-risk-levels-metrics

This significantly changes the map palattes and paints a picture that is probably
closer to reality, however the areas with the high risks are indicated as about the
same with the old schema.

[Spam]

Eclipse, thank you for taking the time to faithfully update this thread.

V/r
Spam

[Eclipse]

The maps continue to march in the wrong direction.

A local military base has raised their HPCON to "B" due to the
surrounding community's level going up.

[NIN]

Here we go again ...

[PHall]

Covid is going to be around for a long time. What we need to do now is learn how to live with it and not shut down every time there is a spike.

[Jester]

Covid is going to be around for a long time. What we need to do now is learn how to live with it and not shut down every time there is a spike.

Agree, but we're also going to have to embrace flexibility when there are spikes to maintain our ability to function.  I look at it like a modular buffet type deal, adding things like masks when needed and removing them when not. 

"learn how to live with it" is not "pretend it doesn't exist".  I know you didn't say that, but that really seems to be the vibe I'm getting from a lot of people.

[NovemberWhiskey]

Is it really the case that no wings have regressed to Phase 2 or Phase 1 yet? There's a whole chunk of NER that should be heading back there based on the current metrics.

I'm looking at:

• CT with 76.8 cases/100K/day and 1.36 infection rate
• RI with 76.0 cases/100K/day and 1.16 infection rate
• MA with 66.2 cases/100K/day and 1.17 infection rate
• NJ with 55.4 cases/100K/day and 1.18 infection rate
• NY with 50.9 cases/100K/day and 1.11 infection rate

... all with broadly confirmed upward trajectories.

Published NHQ guidance is >50 cases/100K/day and >1.0 infection rate means fall back to Phase 2; >70 cases/100K/day and >1.0 infection rate means fall back to Phase 1. ref https://www.gocivilairpatrol.com/media/cms/COVID19_Phase_Guidance_FA6D70CD1ED8F.pdf

[Eclipse]

At least 13 states are now indicated as the highest risk level, with several more
moving that way.

[Eclipse]

A weekish later and we now have

15 States / Territories at Medium
15 States at High

That's 60 percent of the country at an elevated risk level, based on the new metrics
going into Memorial Day.

[Eclipse]

The state-level map has actually moved in the right direction this week,
though a number of populous counties went to "high".

[Eclipse]

FWIW the Covid waivers for Mitchell and Eaker expired on the 31st.

https://www.gocivilairpatrol.com/media/cms/2022_COVID_Waiver_BB363E4CEC0BB.pdf