AIR FRANCE A330-200 ''Dissapears'' over Atlantic

[BTCS1*]

I don't have the link right now, but apparently an Airbus A330 from Rio(Brazil) ''mysteriously'' lost contact with ATC and crashed in an area without radar. They suspect that all over 200 on board died and are now searching for the wreckage. Anyone know how they are gonna go about searching for this? I mean, its a big ocean... Post updates as they come in, this should be an interesting story as it develops.

[bosshawk]

This has been on the news almost constantly since last night.  I suggest that you watch CNN, as they have all the details that have been released ad nausium.

Searching that much ocean is pretty much like looking for a needle in a haystack.  Coast Guard for the US, don't know who does it in South America.  You are correct, it is a big ocean.

[BTCS1*]

I figure France will also get involved to some degree, it being a French company. Probably they'd just get the military from South American countries to scan. Just turned on CNN and it was on when changed the channel.

[wingnut55]

HERE IS A CADET SCHOOL POSTER ASSIGNMENT

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31057560//

Google search Airbus or A330-200 or both. You need to look at the accident rate and other related issues to the Airbus.

Take a look at the Great Circle routes taken by Trans Atlantic or Trans Pacific  Airliners and you will be surprised.

Study the Air search and rescue for the Country of Brazil and Long Range Military Naval Aircraft of the British Navy, and US Navy.

This will all come together in a few days as they find debris fields. 

This would make a great poster presentation.

Look at the early public comments from Important people such as the French President
( "Little Hope for passengers") and think about how they family of crew and passengers must have felt. Was it appropriate ? Did he make things Worse? CAP has a "Public Affairs Technical specialty that discusses some things to say and how to say it after a plane crash.

http://members.gocivilairpatrol.com/media/cms/R190_001.pdf

[sardak]

Wreckage was located by a search aircraft from the Brazilian Air Force (FAB). Here is the link to the FAB's initial notice of the find and a fairly detailed map.

Real time tracking of ships that have responded to the area is shown here.
Ships are shown as red dots and buoys are the numbered dots.

You can also track a ship individually. This shows the position of one of the first ships on-scene.

Here is a highly detailed meteorological analysis by a retired USAF meteorologist.

The forum discussion on Airliners.net has gotten so long that it's been divided into (so far) seven pages.

Mike

[disamuel]

Here is a pretty interesting analysis:

http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/af447/

[sardak]

Here is a pretty interesting analysis:
http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/af447/

Which was listed in the message just before yours.   Visits to the site have overloaded the server it's on. The owner posted a message in a different forum that he's probably going to move it to a new server.

Mike

[capchiro]

There is a possiblity that US satillites (sp?) may have pictures of any explosion that may have occured on this flight.  My son's roomate from the Academy was lost when their C141 was hit in mid-air by a German AF 727 out of Namibia years ago.  Our satillites did show that explosion and let us know where to find the black box.  All were killed onboard.   

[JohnKachenmeister]

Brazil has a Civil Air Patrol, you know.  Insignia just like ours.  At least like ours used to be.

[Polecat]

I think they are getting probed in bad places by aliens.  Put on you tin-foil hats, the invasion is coming!

[BrandonKea]

I think they are getting probed in bad places by aliens.  Put on you tin-foil hats, the invasion is coming!

*waves the "too soon" flag*

I saw something on CNN's bottom line thing about the Oil Slick suggesting something, but I wasn't able to see what it said and haven't found anything corresponding to that on the web. Does anyone know any more about that?

[BTCS1*]

I don't remember exactly, but the oil slick may be an indicator that it was taken down by a bomb, and there were bomb threats made to air france, not about that specific flight though. That's what I remember, don't quote me on it...

[BrandonKea]

I don't remember exactly, but the oil slick may be an indicator that it was taken down by a bomb, and there were bomb threats made to air france, not about that specific flight though. That's what I remember, don't quote me on it...

Found it... (From Cnn.com)

A 12-mile oil slick near where an Air France jet crashed Monday into the Atlantic Ocean indicates the plane likely didn't break up until it hit the water, Brazil's defense minister said Wednesday.

If true, that would argue against an in-flight explosion as the cause of the crash of Air France Flight 447, Defense Minister Nelson Jobim told reporters.

[PHall]

MSN has an article that says that the ACARS was sending a whole string of messages as various systems went off-line or malfunctioned. They suggest the aircraft may have broke up at high altitude. The last message sent by the ACARS was that cabin pressurization was being lost, a pretty good indicator of a fuselage breech.

[NIN]

First, I would caution that anything you hear from CNN is suspect as to conclusions. They're in the business of breathlessly reporting "news," (information that causes you to watch their channel and their advertisers) not supplying you with facts.

Second, a 12 mile oil slick does not sound like it would have been caused by an aircraft's impact with the water.   Think about the dynamics for a minute.  If an aircraft were to come apart in the air, its fuel would likely vaporize before it hit the surface of the water.  Unless the aircraft was pretty low and traveling at a pretty high rate of speed.   Then, during a disintegration sequence, it might have trailed enough fuel or spread it enough for it *now* to be a 12 mile slick. I could be wrong.  There are a lot of factors at work on this one.

Third,  this gigantic potential debris field suggest the aircraft may have started shedding parts at a much higher altitude.  Columbia, anyone?

Given the Airbus history,  a lot of interest is being concentrated on the tail.  Severe turbulence followed by potentially over aggressive recovery techniques may have failed the tail & consequently the pressure bulkhead (with a corresponding loss in cabin pressure).  This might explain why there are wildly separate debris fields.

There were a number of ACARS messages, too, that had to do with the Nav & Inertial reference systems, prior to the pressure message.  There have been documented instances of Airbus systems encountering severe turbulence such that he nav systems lose reference and "call home to mommy."   Perhaps this is what happened here.

Give it a few more days, though.

[BrandonKea]

You are right, a 12 mile oil slick doesn't seem to jive with what's being said. But I think perhaps it rules out a bomb... although at altitude, I suppose that a 12 mile slick from a bomb-crippled aircraft is possible.

Sadly I'm all too familiar with the wild reporting swings of CNN, Fox, etc. Being subjected to the big screen of news for 12 hour shifts really makes me hate Cable News.

[sardak]

The US Coast Guard is using its Search and Rescue Optimal Planning System (SAROPS) program to aid in the search. A press release with a link to a Powerpoint showing how it's being used is here.

Using weather and ocean current data, a reverse drift analysis was performed starting with the location where debris has been found. This led to an estimate of the initial impact point of the bulk of the aircraft with the ocean. Then a forward drift analysis is being performed to show the probabilities of where debris is drifting.

The program doesn't track individual items, but grids are created and a Probability of Area or Containment (POA or POC, depending on your training) is assigned to each grid. The grids move and the probabilities change with time. Red grids show the highest probabilities and blue the lowest.

The Coast Guard is working with the Air Force to try to figure out a way to use SAROPS for missing aircraft and person search. I've seen two presentations on how SAROPS was used unofficially on the Fossett search. One presentation was made before the plane was found and one afterwards.

Mike

[sardak]

A Powerpoint presentation by the Brazilian Air Force showing how the search area has expanded and some maps are on this page. Everything is in Portuguese, but the charts speak for themselves in the language of SAR.

And a great night shot of a C-130 on the ramp at the forward operating base on Fernando de Noronha island.

Unfortunately, still no positive sign of the aircraft.

Mike

[Gunner C]

They reportedly found two bodies today.

[sardak]

A large debris field of AFR 447 was located over the weekend. Bodies, landing gear, engines and large structural components have been identified. This is the fourth search since the plane disappeared almost two years ago and the first find since the floating debris field was located in the first week after the accident. This latest search only began a week ago.

In the year since the last search, an extensive scientific analysis was performed on the results of the previous searches, combined with new studies of the flight dynamics of in-flight loss of control and break-ups and reverse ocean drift. Apparently this paid off.

A summary report of the analysis:  http://www.bea.aero/fr/enquetes/vol.af.447/metron.search.analysis.pdf

Latest information on the search:  http://www.bea.aero/en/enquetes/flight.af.447/sea.search.ops.phase.4.php

Mike