Climate Change report - another potential call to action

[Eclipse]

This is exactly the kind of thing CAP should use as a call to preparation, readiness, and action.

An entire national DR training framework with corresponding downstream training plans should emerge with
this as the core document, and this should be used as a conversation starter with local agencies.

My money is on this being largely ignored by CAP and another recruiting and mission opportunity left on the table.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2014/05/06/national-climate-assessment/8736743/
"Devastating droughts in the Southwest, ruinous floods in New York City, killer wildfires in Colorado, intense heat waves in the Plains: These are the some of the disasters that are being exacerbated by global warming, and problems will continue to worsen in the decades to come, according to a massive federal climate report released Tuesday at the White House."

http://www.whitehouse.gov/share/climate-action-plan
http://www.whitehouse.gov/energy/climate-change

Note: There is no point in making this a political conversation about "why" things are changing,
or whether this is just nature being cyclical, regardless the next decade or so (if not longer)
is likely to be "interesting" in the way of the Chinese curse.

[SunDog]

Weirdly appropriate. . .rings true. Bad times are good times for folks called upon in bad times. If that makes any sense?

CAP might be on tap for a lot of picture taking, if they haven't driven all the aircrew away by then. . .every "surge" event ends with our wing appealing for more MPs and MOs to get current in the glass, and/or other aircraft.

And then it's back to the GOBN and/or call outs and call downs going to sqdns, as opposed to aircrew. "I call the sqdns I know can do the job". Excellent plan for keeping crews involved long term.

One of our guys bit - he did the long round trip drive to wing-land, multiple times, did his glass checkride, and then never heard another word.  Lost his phone number. He Kept the faith for a year or so, did the drive to stay current, and proficient.  Then finally let it go. . .and is gone from CAP,  now, too.

[Johnny Yuma]

It goes against my ethics to use fraudulent information to recruit people into CAP.

For every news headline that says "Earth Heating" or talking about the Polar icecap melting there's another one talking about the coming Ice Age and how the seals are dying because the polar ice cap is freezing over the hole they use to come up for air from under the ice. Meanwhile the people telling me to ride a bike to work and start living under a rock to save the planet are riding around in limo's and jetsetting on Learjets making money off their book royalties, speeches and carbon footprint credits.

I'm not stooping to the level of the Climate change hucksters to get another clasp on my recruiting ribbon.

[Luis R. Ramos]

Another denier.

I have not heard or read any article stating that "seals are dying because their holes are freezing." If you have first knowledge of any scientist traveling in a limo etc. post it. Meanwhile the evidence keeps piling up. More calamities, higher tides, and smaller glaciers and ice tops. Remember? CAP takes photos of the ground. So do other agencies.

[RiverAux]

Unfortunately, climate change is just too politically hot an issue for me to recommend that CAP use it in marketing ourselves as a resource for dealing with some of its results. 

[Luis R. Ramos]

I concur with River...

I believe it is happening, but using this as a recruitment tool is divisive and contentious.

[Майор Хаткевич]

I concur with River...

I believe it is happening, but using this as a recruitment tool is divisive and contentious.

Climate change...a term CREATED by the deniers. We don't have to talk about what is causing the change, simply how we can help deal with the effects. It's a sad world where a real problem (whether natural, OR man made) because "too politically hot" to be addressed.

[arajca]

I concur with River...

I believe it is happening, but using this as a recruitment tool is divisive and contentious.

Climate change...a term CREATED by the deniers. We don't have to talk about what is causing the change, simply how we can help deal with the effects. It's a sad world where a real problem (whether natural, OR man made) because "too politically hot" to be addressed.

Incorrect. Climate Change was created by the Global Warming folks when an inconvenient fact (no noticeable warming in 10+ years) came up. Global Warming/Climate Change caused by man is a RELIGION of many. There can be no denying it. Think about this - the models they use to predict the future climate cannot accurately give us our current climate given the inputs required. As a result, we are being asked to take it on FAITH there is climate change caused by man. Hence, it's a religion.

Also, remember, the same folks said we were entering a new Ice Age in the 70's.

[PHall]

You guys want to take your political arguement somewhere else?

[JayT]

I concur with River...

I believe it is happening, but using this as a recruitment tool is divisive and contentious.

Climate change...a term CREATED by the deniers. We don't have to talk about what is causing the change, simply how we can help deal with the effects. It's a sad world where a real problem (whether natural, OR man made) because "too politically hot" to be addressed.

Incorrect. Climate Change was created by the Global Warming folks when an inconvenient fact (no noticeable warming in 10+ years) came up. Global Warming/Climate Change caused by man is a RELIGION of many. There can be no denying it. Think about this - the models they use to predict the future climate cannot accurately give us our current climate given the inputs required. As a result, we are being asked to take it on FAITH there is climate change caused by man. Hence, it's a religion.

Also, remember, the same folks said we were entering a new Ice Age in the 70's.

I actually prefer posts like this, because I like it when climate change deniers are out in the open.

You have to ignore the opinions of the vast majority of experts in the field. What does that say about your reality?

[arajca]

I concur with River...

I believe it is happening, but using this as a recruitment tool is divisive and contentious.

Climate change...a term CREATED by the deniers. We don't have to talk about what is causing the change, simply how we can help deal with the effects. It's a sad world where a real problem (whether natural, OR man made) because "too politically hot" to be addressed.

Incorrect. Climate Change was created by the Global Warming folks when an inconvenient fact (no noticeable warming in 10+ years) came up. Global Warming/Climate Change caused by man is a RELIGION of many. There can be no denying it. Think about this - the models they use to predict the future climate cannot accurately give us our current climate given the inputs required. As a result, we are being asked to take it on FAITH there is climate change caused by man. Hence, it's a religion.

Also, remember, the same folks said we were entering a new Ice Age in the 70's.

I actually prefer posts like this, because I like it when climate change deniers are out in the open.

You have to ignore the opinions of the vast majority of experts in the field. What does that say about your reality?

Experts whose opinions are based on a flawed model. How many experts claimed man could not survive supersonic flight?

[Майор Хаткевич]

www.gallup.com/poll/168617/global-warming-climate-change-difference.aspx?utm_source=google&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=syndication

[Майор Хаткевич]

I concur with River...

I believe it is happening, but using this as a recruitment tool is divisive and contentious.

Climate change...a term CREATED by the deniers. We don't have to talk about what is causing the change, simply how we can help deal with the effects. It's a sad world where a real problem (whether natural, OR man made) because "too politically hot" to be addressed.

Incorrect. Climate Change was created by the Global Warming folks when an inconvenient fact (no noticeable warming in 10+ years) came up. Global Warming/Climate Change caused by man is a RELIGION of many. There can be no denying it. Think about this - the models they use to predict the future climate cannot accurately give us our current climate given the inputs required. As a result, we are being asked to take it on FAITH there is climate change caused by man. Hence, it's a religion.

Also, remember, the same folks said we were entering a new Ice Age in the 70's.

I actually prefer posts like this, because I like it when climate change deniers are out in the open.

You have to ignore the opinions of the vast majority of experts in the field. What does that say about your reality?

Experts whose opinions are based on a flawed model. How many experts claimed man could not survive supersonic flight?

Of course...scientists who spent their life studying it and looking at the trend are "wrong", but Faux news is right because they bring out the one guy who disagrees.

[Eclipse]

In the recent words of John Oliver:

"You don't need people's opinion on a fact.
You might as well have a poll on 'Which number is bigger, 15 or 5? Or Do owls exist? Or are there hats?"

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/05/12/3436771/john-oliver-climate-change-debate/

I would have linked the video directly, but it contains some NSFC language.

The POINT in this thread is that it doesn't matter >why< the climate is changing, or whether it's
made man made or natural, it is changing.  That is an undeniable scientifically accepted and verified fact.

Even if it is only anecdotal, short-term, or a natural cycle of the earth, people who took home economics
instead of Earth Science in high school are apparently unaware of the fact that the reason we have the Great Lakes
is because there used to be a continental glacier over the MidWest, that the SW US is a desert without human intervention,
and the reason we have oil in the mid-east is that it used to be a rain forest.

In the mean time, the SW US is in a pattern of drought, the MidWest and Eastern Seaboard are seeing an increase
in storm activity, you know, right where that are major population centers and in areas people didn't used to live,
and things generally are getting more intense across the board.

If your response to this is political, I hope, as Bill Cosby pointed out in his story about Noah, that you can "tread water."

Meanwhile, those of us who simply accept reality without a p;political filter, should be using this science to
plan and prepare for the next decade of increased negative impacts on the economy and society.  As I said
earlier, CAP will likely ignore the entire issue, or indulge in the political arguments instead of using this as a clarion,
because the voice of "discuss instead of do" is generally louder no matter what room you're in.

[Майор Хаткевич]

Basically, as a comment on the link stated, this is Pascal's Wager - climate style. But in terms of CAP, whether "proven" or "real" or "nothing we can do about it", CAP can still help with the consequences that are getting more frequent.

[Eclipse]

CAP can still help with the consequences that are getting more frequent.

Which should be the point taken when you read things without a political filter.

[a2capt]

..the reason we have the Great Lakes is because there used to be a continental glacier over the MidWest, that the SW US is a desert without human intervention, and the reason we have oil in the mid-east is that it used to be a rain forest.

..and that the Vikings were farming in -Green-land..

[AirAux]

Hmmm, with this ice melting, water rising, sounds more like a job for the Coast Guard Auxilary??  Whether it is politcal or not, for man to think he can control the weather is just a little bit egotistic, considering he has screwed up everything else he has decided needed to be fixed.  Whatever happened to the old days of science when the facts were that the Earth was flat?  I would suggest that man knows about as much about the weather nowadays as he did about the curvature of the Earth when science said it was flat..

[Flying Pig]

The Gulf of Mexico is about 75yards from my front door, however I live in a 3rd floor condo.  A diving board on my balcony would be a great entertainment piece.

[attachment deleted by admin]

[Майор Хаткевич]

Hmmm, with this ice melting, water rising, sounds more like a job for the Coast Guard Auxilary??  Whether it is politcal or not, for man to think he can control the weather is just a little bit egotistic, considering he has screwed up everything else he has decided needed to be fixed.  Whatever happened to the old days of science when the facts were that the Earth was flat?  I would suggest that man knows about as much about the weather nowadays as he did about the curvature of the Earth when science said it was flat..

That's a dumb "fact" to use, and you should feel bad for trying. "Scientists" (Philosophers back then, really), did NOT think the earth was flat. In fact, well over two thousand years ago, a philosopher estimated the circumference of the earth to within a few hundred miles IIRC. The sailors with Columbus also didn't think he'd sail them off the edge of the Earth. If anything, we can blame Christianity for the so called dark ages in Europe that for CENTURIES persecuted "scientists" who said something the church felt was against what was compiled by them as the "word of G-d". While Europeans were burning each other at the stake, those "savage" Muslims were working Math, the Mongols were using biological warfare with the understanding of where the disease was really coming from (in relationship to the Christian views on it), and the Chinese were blasting emperors into space on rocket chairs. Your ethnocentrism is showing, sir.

[THRAWN]

Maybe not using the climate change angle (stepping into the middle of a political sword fight probably isn't the best thing for the organization...), but hard selling the DR capabilities and training them up would benefit the ES mission greatly. We can do fullbore DR work. Our SAR work is limited to SA and even that is spotty at best. As an organization, we need to look for nontraditional missions that are needed and sell the decision makers on them.

[Майор Хаткевич]

Maybe not using the climate change angle (stepping into the middle of a political sword fight probably isn't the best thing for the organization...), but hard selling the DR capabilities and training them up would benefit the ES mission greatly. We can do fullbore DR work. Our SAR work is limited to SA and even that is spotty at best. As an organization, we need to look for nontraditional missions that are needed and sell the decision makers on them.

Which is...exactly what the OP said...is it not? Are we reading the same OP?

[a2capt]

The Gulf of Mexico is about 75yards from my front door, however I live in a 3rd floor condo.  A diving board on my balcony would be a great entertainment piece.

Heh, like the Jeffersons.. Moving on -up- .. you went from a secluded dead-end spread .. to a condo overlooking the hurricane arena.

[arajca]

We used to do full bore DR work. Heck as a cadet, I went on a few tornado responses/clean-up missions in IL. It seems that since then (early 80's) we've thrown the ground aspect away.

[THRAWN]

Maybe not using the climate change angle (stepping into the middle of a political sword fight probably isn't the best thing for the organization...), but hard selling the DR capabilities and training them up would benefit the ES mission greatly. We can do fullbore DR work. Our SAR work is limited to SA and even that is spotty at best. As an organization, we need to look for nontraditional missions that are needed and sell the decision makers on them.

Which is...exactly what the OP said...is it not? Are we reading the same OP?

Apparently not.

[Flying Pig]

The Gulf of Mexico is about 75yards from my front door, however I live in a 3rd floor condo.  A diving board on my balcony would be a great entertainment piece.

Heh, like the Jeffersons.. Moving on -up- .. you went from a secluded dead-end spread .. to a condo overlooking the hurricane arena.

Yeah this helicopter business is pretty interesting.... I could just about pick any place in the country and move there with a job.  Sorta like being a long haul trucker...... without the beer belly. 

[Майор Хаткевич]

The Gulf of Mexico is about 75yards from my front door, however I live in a 3rd floor condo.  A diving board on my balcony would be a great entertainment piece.

Heh, like the Jeffersons.. Moving on -up- .. you went from a secluded dead-end spread .. to a condo overlooking the hurricane arena.

Yeah this helicopter business is pretty interesting.... I could just about pick any place in the country and move there with a job.  Sorta like being a long haul trucker...... without the beer belly.

Since you're in the business...I heard about 10 years ago the great fear over the "retiring" Vietnam era pilots. Is that now in full swing/over with, and is the pilot shortage as pronounced as predicted then?

[Flying Pig]

That is a myth perpetuated by flight schools.  In reality..... the majority of Vietnam era pilots did not continue to fly after the war.  10 years ago the average Vietnam era pilot would have been in his mid-60s.  The relatively small percentage of guys who went on to fly in the civilian world would have been retired or unable to pass a medical.  Whats funny is that flight schools are STILL running ads talking about the pilot shortage because of the Vietnam era pilots retiring.   Most Vietnam vets who would have been pilots are now into their late 60s or early 70s.

The issue with the helicopter industry is not the lack of pilots... its the lack of qualified pilots.  Short of 2000hrs with a minimum of a few hundred turbine hours, you arent going to get much in the way of a job you can make a living on.  The typical route is get your CFII certs, instruct until you have 1200-1500hrs then head to Vegas and fly tours or head to the Gulf and fly oil platforms. Do that for a couple years until you reach 800-1000 turbine which puts you at 3000hrs total.  Then jobs like EMS, utility, Fire contractors, etc will start to return your phone calls and emails.  The "void" is not being created by Vietnam pilots retiring.  The void is being created by an increase in helicopter operations nationwide, the EXPLOSION of Helicopter EMS operators across the country and the unbelievable expense of getting your certs to the tune of about $75-$80K if you got a deal.

I would say the number of pilots in the last 10 years who were Vietnam era military trained was probably a pretty small percentage.  When places use the Vietnam justification, the spin it like 1968 was the last time a pilot was trained to fly.   Thousands of military and civilian trained pilots have been entering the arena of RW aviation daily for the past 40 years.  One of the big issues with military pilots getting out now-a-days is that most don't have the total time to land a civilian job.  Minimum of 1500hours is what you will need.  I know 900-1100hrs UH60 pilots who have been told by entry level turbine operators to go get a couple hundred hours more in an R22 and then re-apply.  Insurance companies drive helicopter requirements, not the employers.  With the wars scaling down dramatically, you will start seeing the days of military pilots getting out with 600-800hrs after a 6 or 8 year hitch.  What does that mean?  That means the day they take of their uniform will probable be the last day they fly professionally unless they are willing to work at the local R22 flight school for a couple years making $15 an hour to get their time up. 

How does this relate to climate change?  Helicopters will be what picks you off your roof Katrina style.  There... .now its not a hijack of a thread 

[AirAux]

Talk about ethnocentrism, I don't think it can get any better than this: "If anything, we can blame Christianity for the so called dark ages in Europe that for CENTURIES persecuted "scientists" who said something the church felt was against what was compiled by them as the "word of G-d". While Europeans were burning each other at the stake, those "savage" Muslims were working Math,"  Have you been brainwashed?  Until you study a little more about the Muslims, I wouldn't be making claims that the Muslims weren't savage...  Just who do you think started the Crusades?  It had a little something to do with the Muslims taking the Holy lands in a most "savage" manner..  I guess that's why I am not too worried about the weather, people with no knowledge accepting the spouting of those with an agenda.  Carry on.   

[Flying Pig]

Darnit... I guess we are done talking about helicopters saving people when the glaciers melt 

[Майор Хаткевич]

Talk about ethnocentrism, I don't think it can get any better than this: "If anything, we can blame Christianity for the so called dark ages in Europe that for CENTURIES persecuted "scientists" who said something the church felt was against what was compiled by them as the "word of G-d". While Europeans were burning each other at the stake, those "savage" Muslims were working Math,"  Have you been brainwashed?  Until you study a little more about the Muslims, I wouldn't be making claims that the Muslims weren't savage...  Just who do you think started the Crusades?  It had a little something to do with the Muslims taking the Holy lands in a most "savage" manner..  I guess that's why I am not too worried about the weather, people with no knowledge accepting the spouting of those with an agenda.  Carry on.   

I didn't say they were perfect, but it framed your nonsense "flat earth" belief quite well. As to spouting agenda...I guess if you consider science an agenda (which it is), and a bad one at that, then why do you even bother engaging in this thread? People who lack knowledge but listen to SMEs are sheep, but your totally unknowing self is the smart one for saying the SMEs are wrong is the correct perception? Alrighty. Got. It.

[AirAux]

The agenda, The Times, today:

Research which heaped doubt on the rate of global warming was deliberately suppressed by scientists because it was "less than helpful" to their cause, it was claimed last night.

In an echo of the infamous "Climategate" scandal at the University of East Anglia, one of the world's top academic journals rejected the work of five experts after a reviewer privately denounced it as "harmful".

Yes, pure science at it's best, no one ever said.

[JeffDG]

Basically, as a comment on the link stated, this is Pascal's Wager - climate style. But in terms of CAP, whether "proven" or "real" or "nothing we can do about it", CAP can still help with the consequences that are getting more frequent.

Such as?

Tornado frequency is near an all-time-low.  The time between landfalls of Cat3+ hurricanes is at a record level and climbing.

[Eclipse]

^ And it's snowing in Chicago on May 16th as I write this...

[Майор Хаткевич]

^ And it's snowing in Chicago on May 16th as I write this...

Don't play into their local, one off incident agenda either. "Oh wow! -40f in December! So much for global warming".

Weather patterns change, a one day to the opposite of " warming" does not make it legitimate proof of wrong.

[JeffDG]

^ And it's snowing in Chicago on May 16th as I write this...

Don't play into their local, one off incident agenda either. "Oh wow! -40f in December! So much for global warming".

Weather patterns change, a one day to the opposite of " warming" does not make it legitimate proof of wrong.

How about 17 years of no warming?

[Eclipse]

^ No point in asking for a cite, I'll simple provide the data that disagrees.

Quoth the wiki:
Global warming refers to an unequivocal and continuing rise in the average temperature of Earth's climate system.[2] Since 1971, 90% of the warming has occurred in the oceans.[3] Despite the oceans' dominant role in energy storage, the term "global warming" is also used to refer to increases in average temperature of the air and sea at Earth's surface.[4] Since the early 20th century, the global air and sea surface temperature has increased about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F), with about two-thirds of the increase occurring since 1980.[5] Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth's surface than any preceding decade since 1850.[6]



The term used last night on Colbert by Thomas Friedman author of "Years of Living Dangerously"
is "Global Weirding", which is probably more appropriate - weather is changing, and while you
can point to "less of this" and "less of that" the trend of the last century is indisputable, and
the intensity of individual events is increasing.

There are also other factors which are not weather caused, but weather-related which may well
exacerbate the situation, and certainly make like "interesting".  Mr. Friedman makes an interestingly
correlation between the mass exodus of Syrian farmers to the urban centers because of massive drought
to the civil wart there because you had a million some disgruntled people with few life options.

So again, even if you accept this is cyclical and "normal", things that take 100+ years to ramp up, don't ramp
down slowly, either.

Meanwhile, there are fire tornadoes in California.

[Eclipse]

The other issue to the point of tornado frequency and weather comparisons in general is that there is considerable
debate in the meteorological community as to whether we are seeing changes in weather, or
statistical anomalies in the reporting and detection of weather itself.

Better and more immediate communication means we are more aware of storms and patterns then we had the
capability of even detecting 100 years ago, and the US uses a different scale (since 1971) for tornadoes
then it did previously, so the data doesn't necessarily correlate in a simple manner.

[JeffDG]

Here ya go, multiple datasets, 17 years and counting of  (essentially) no warming

[JeffDG]

Better and more immediate communication means we are more aware of storms and patterns then we had the
capability of even detecting 100 years ago, and the US uses a different scale (since 1971) for tornadoes
then it did previously, so the data doesn't necessarily correlate in a simple manner.

Better detection + declining trend = bigger decline.

[Eclipse]

Here ya go, multiple datasets, 17 years and counting of  (essentially) no warming

That's the point.

A 17 year data set of steady is too short doesn't negate 100 years of increase.

[JeffDG]

Here ya go, multiple datasets, 17 years and counting of  (essentially) no warming

That's the point.

A 17 year data set of steady is too short doesn't negate 100 years of increase.

OK, how many years do you want?

A while ago, the Warmists said "You'll never have more than 15 years without warming."  Then 15 years came and went, and they just ignored it.

The "actual" temperatures are now below the 95% error bars on over 95% of model predictions, yet politicians are called to act on those model's predictions, regardless of the fact that they don't match reality.

[RRLE]

From the National Geographic News Feb 28, 2007 Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says.

[Eclipse]

OK, how many years do you want?

Well, in terms of the conversations, the datasets need to be close, if not equal.  As USAFAUX2004 indicates
too short a term is anecdotal at best, but could also be legitimate exceptions.

[JeffDG]

OK, how many years do you want?

Well, in terms of the conversations, the datasets need to be close, if not equal.  As USAFAUX2004 indicates
too short a term is anecdotal at best, but could also be legitimate exceptions.

OK, so for the majority of our best data-set, the satelite measurements, there has been no detectable warming.

There has also been extensive examination of the USHCN dataset, given that many of the measurement stations were poorly cited, such as at the exhaust of A/C units, or having parking lots built around them with nice black asphalt.

And actual temperatures are below 95 of 97 model predictions, 90 of them beyond the 95% confidence predictions of those models.  The models have been, if not invalidated, at least placed into considerable doubt, yet, the Warmists ask that we spend literally trillions because of their suspect predictions.

[Eclipse]

A while ago, the Warmists said "You'll never have more than 15 years without warming.

From the National Geographic News Feb 28, 2007 Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says.

Again, mostly irrelvent as it looks to cause and/or mitigation, and when you start using terms like "warmists" you're
showing more inclination towards the political conversation on blame then the relevent-to-CAP conversation on response.

CAP is not, in any way, involved in cause-discovery, nor the mitigation of the supposed climate change.
Our only role, and it could be an important / major one, is in ground-level (so to speak) wrench-turning
of the response to immediate needs regarding the safety of people and property.

I would even accept, for the most part, arguments that say the issues we are experiencing today
are anomalies, not the planet-changing Armageddon some suppose.

But even in that context, there are plenty of facts to support the increased need for response resources,
as well as the vector of more people in harm's way in the immediate future.

There are more people then ever before in the United States.

Those people are dependent on the infrastructure that has grown up around them,
to the point of significant hardship during even short-term disruption, and that same infrastructure
is both aging and fragile, which means it takes less "bad" to affect more people, and it can escalate
quickly if not contained immediately.

There is more urban sprawl and suburbanization in and around major cities then ever before,
build-ups and over flood plains, and nearer to waterways then ever before, which then calls
into play the infrastructure issues.

These populations are dependent on the stability of the area they exist in - even minor, short-term
shifts in climate, or relatively "minor" disasters can cause hardship out of proportion to
the actual disaster because of "where" people are now.

Due to a number of factors, not the least of which the economy, the government is shrinking,
and taking resources with it, and the general public has less personal resources to call on
in times of emergency then ever before.  Local municipalities and county EMAs are running
at staffing and resources levels below those seen for decades, and in some cases below
even minimums to execute their mandates.

None of these above is going to change in a positive way any time soon, nor likely ever,
certainly not the population and suburbanization issues, and if the climate remains 100%
static for the next century, the population and infrastructure issues will continue to increase.

Now, let's look at CAP's response and involvement in the last decade - we have been
involved in more and larger-scale activities nearly every year since the mid-2001s,
and that's not including some increased role in HLS since 911.

Without exception, >ALL< of those major engagements Katrina, Challenger, Fossett,
Sandy, plus the myriad smaller-scale DR efforts, have been performed on a last-minute, shoe-string,
with participants run into the ground doing multiple jobs and somehow never learning anything
from the last "big one".

None of the above is disputable.  And there's plenty of fact-based information to flesh
out the points I've made above.

It doesn't matter >why< things are getting weird, the "why" isn't CAP's problem.

There is no downside to CAP with an increase in training,  preparation, and especially recruiting
using this report, or at least the generalized issues, as a call to action.

In fact, it's actually a mandate of our mission and charter.

In regards to DR, we are >always< a military auxiliary, and >always< an instrumentality of the federal
government through 1AF.  The current Presidential administration has indicated that
the negative effects of climate change are upon us, and that action is needed immediately,
so whether we agree with the conclusion or not, the mandate is before us regardless.

And considering the program's indisputable shrinkage over the last decade,
we need to start working on our capabilities just to maintain the illusion of status quo,
let alone any increase in the need for our services.

In the aftermath of 911, we saw a significant increase in membership on a wave of patriotism.
Wasted and gone - to the tune of 5-7000 hard-number members, or nearly 10% attrition.

Again after Katrina, national calls to service with front-page evidence of the need for response resources.
Wasted and gone.

Challenger?  Check.

Sandy?  Heard much lately?

When circumstance presents opportunity, you can either make things happen, or make excuses.

[Luis R. Ramos]

Jeff-

Your model is not comparable to Eclipse's.

You had only 2000-2014??

Eclipse's model had far, far more. If we look at Eclipse's, his data for the years you include, shows the same info.

Run your model again starting the same year that Eclipse did.

As of now, you are trying to get us to compare apples and bananas.

[Eclipse]

Heh -



Not that >I'd< ever do such a thing...

[WarEagle01]

"Another denier.

I have not heard or read any article stating that "seals are dying because their holes are freezing." If you have first knowledge of any scientist traveling in a limo etc. post it. Meanwhile the evidence keeps piling up. More calamities, higher tides, and smaller glaciers and ice tops. Remember? CAP takes photos of the ground. So do other agencies."

My suggestion is if you're going to argue politics then do it civilly. The use of the "denier" term comes from a series of articles by the AGW advocacy community starting around 2007 which argued that skepticism of human-caused climate change was akin to Holocaust denial. That's ridiculous, of course. It trivializes a horrific event and is intended to stifle debate.

Personally, I believe that humans have caused some of the increased warming since the National Weather Service began collecting temperature data in the late 19th century. I think that's obvious and even the most ardent skeptics would almost have to concur if they understood the physics. However, how significant could it be when the overall temperature increase up until around 1997 was only around a third of a degree Fahrenheit? Of course, since 1997 there's been no statistically significant warming, contra about 95% of the climate models. Also, for those throwing out all the "facts" about climate change: even the UN's International Panel on Climate Change admits in its latest report that there is a low probability of a relationship between significant weather events, including hurricanes and droughts and human activity (And BTW, for the commenter who mentioned "increased tides" and "melting glaciers," those things are just not happening. Nor are polar bears drowning because of melting ice flows. Just zero evidence of those things). In fact, last year we had a record low number of hurricanes. In short, I think this White House document is chock full of holes and is simply meant to shore-up the current administration's political agenda. I think people on both sides of the debate understand that, so I don't think it will have any impact on real-world policy or funding where CAP is concerned.

[Pulsar]

  my prediction of the future...

200 years from now the town I live in will no longer exist. It will be a federal owned district (somewhat similar to state game lands). There will only be trees and grass, as we are trying to preserve our earth. Alongside reaching mars, we will become even more alarmed at the pollution and afraid of oncoming global warming. Businesses will be destroyed to prevent the excess CO^2 emissions. But thankfully, on mars, we will find a life changing chemical that increases the freezing point of salt water to a high temperature. We will collect the chemical and dump tons into the waters of our poles. The glaciers will be restored and the ice sheet will be bigger than it has been in 500 years. However, accidentally, the US will put too much in...Making the sea level drop drastically. No more Virginia Beach vacations...the sea will be so low it is a cliff...

[Eclipse]

But thankfully, on mars, we will find a life changing chemical that increases the freezing point of salt water to a high temperature.

Hopefully Quaid can get the machine started...

[LSThiker]

I should have clicked on this a long time ago.  A science debate and I missed it.  Either way, FoxNews has finally stated climate change is true:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/erik-wemple/wp/2014/05/21/daily-shows-jon-stewart-highlights-fox-news-climate-change-alarm/