What will CAP look like in 2020?

[Walkman]

Umm.....CAP founded during a world war........we are in World War Three now.  Not much difference, just different bad guys and newer technology.

Good Point, Mikey.

Well, as a new SM still in the "honeymoon phase", I hoping that we'll last much longer than 2020.

While I agree that leadership at NHQ will make a difference, I think local leadership will have a bigger influence. When I asked here about how the TP fiasco would affect me as a new guy, most people replied that it wouldn't really affect me at all. IMO, if we continue to show valuable local community service and turn loose high-caliber cadets, we'll be around.

On that note, I think CP is going to be one of our strongest assets. From what I've seen so far, our cadets stand out among today's youth. There's been a lot of chatter in some circles about the "moral decline" of America's youth (that's a topic for another thread). Parent's that are concerned about that will see our cadets and want their kids to be a part of it.  My 2¢, anyway...

[Dragoon]

We will still exist, as changes to federal law don't happen very often.  Barring some major screw up, no one's gonna waste much time killing a paltry $30M a year program.  Especially since the members of CAP vote.

Now, what will we be doing in 2020?

We'll most certainly have a cadet program - no reason not to.

We'll certainly have planes - don't expect a revolution in military affairs to have drones replace aircraft completely in 15 years.

We may do less SAR - if the 406 ELTs come on line in large numbers the false alarm rate will go way down, and we'll get better data on crashes - less need to search very far.

I doubt we'll do a lot more HLS - primarily because we can't do all that much security work from 100 feet of the ground with our eyeballs.  And Archer aside, I don't expect many high tech  gadgets to be fielded in large numbers to CAP in 13 years.

The big wild card is DR work - Katrina has fundamentally changed the perception of the Federal Government's role in disasters.  It's possible that CAP may end up with a bigger role because of this.

But overall, I think we'll probably look a lot like we do now.  We've gone through ups and downs in membership over the last two decades, and this one is no different.  We've gone through leadership crisis before.  We've changed uniforms around willy-nilly before. SSDD.

[Trouble]

We will still exist, as changes to federal law don't happen very often.  Barring some major screw up, no one's gonna waste much time killing a paltry $30M a year program.  Especially since the members of CAP vote.

Now, what will we be doing in 2020?

We'll most certainly have a cadet program - no reason not to.

We'll certainly have planes - don't expect a revolution in military affairs to have drones replace aircraft completely in 15 years.

We may do less SAR - if the 406 ELTs come on line in large numbers the false alarm rate will go way down, and we'll get better data on crashes - less need to search very far.

I doubt we'll do a lot more HLS - primarily because we can't do all that much security work from 100 feet of the ground with our eyeballs.  And Archer aside, I don't expect many high tech  gadgets to be fielded in large numbers to CAP in 13 years.

The big wild card is DR work - Katrina has fundamentally changed the perception of the Federal Government's role in disasters.  It's possible that CAP may end up with a bigger role because of this.

But overall, I think we'll probably look a lot like we do now.  We've gone through ups and downs in membership over the last two decades, and this one is no different.  We've gone through leadership crisis before.  We've changed uniforms around willy-nilly before. SSDD.

Well said.   

I have to agree, CAP has endured and most likely will continue to do so.  In 2020 we will probably be right were we where in 2001.  Settled into the routine of same old same old, wondering if/when CAP would/had become obsolete. Then something unexpected will take place and we will do what we did in 2001, step forward, role up our sleeves and get to work, doing what we have done since 1941.  Provide Volunteer Airpower to serve/defend our communities, State, and Nation.

"US Civil Air Patrol, America's Volunteer Air-Force in Readiness"

[docspur]

blah blah blah deleted 

With Goggle Earth, we can see where a plane went down and see if there is anyone alive around that plane.  (reference MSNBC about Branson getting Goggle to begin searching for that missing "rocket jock" in Nevada)

Only if you plan on searching for something/someone about 4-5 years later.  Google Earth maps are not "up-to-date-this-instant" satillite maps.  Case in point: I Google Earth'd my address, and it shows 2 trees in my front yard that we had cut down 5 years ago.

[mikeylikey]

blah blah blah deleted 

With Goggle Earth, we can see where a plane went down and see if there is anyone alive around that plane.  (reference MSNBC about Branson getting Goggle to begin searching for that missing "rocket jock" in Nevada)

Only if you plan on searching for something/someone about 4-5 years later.  Google Earth maps are not "up-to-date-this-instant" satellite maps.  Case in point: I Google Earth'd my address, and it shows 2 trees in my front yard that we had cut down 5 years ago.

Ummm......I think Google can get real time images.  HELL they are Google, they own everything and everyone!

[AlphaSigOU]

blah blah blah deleted 

With Goggle Earth, we can see where a plane went down and see if there is anyone alive around that plane.  (reference MSNBC about Branson getting Goggle to begin searching for that missing "rocket jock" in Nevada)

Only if you plan on searching for something/someone about 4-5 years later.  Google Earth maps are not "up-to-date-this-instant" satellite maps.  Case in point: I Google Earth'd my address, and it shows 2 trees in my front yard that we had cut down 5 years ago.

Ummm......I think Google can get real time images.  HELL they are Google, they own everything and everyone!

Heh... if they did some supersecret agency with the initials N R O would be sending agents with the initials F B I wanting to know how they hacked into those 'National Technological Means' orbiting the Earth whose imagery is classified far beyond TOP SECRET RIDICULOUS... 

[Trouble]

blah blah blah deleted

With Goggle Earth, we can see where a plane went down and see if there is anyone alive around that plane.  (reference MSNBC about Branson getting Goggle to begin searching for that missing "rocket jock" in Nevada)

Only if you plan on searching for something/someone about 4-5 years later.  Google Earth maps are not "up-to-date-this-instant" satellite maps.  Case in point: I Google Earth'd my address, and it shows 2 trees in my front yard that we had cut down 5 years ago.

Ummm......I think Google can get real time images.  HELL they are Google, they own everything and everyone!

Heh... if they did some supersecret agency with the initials N R O would be sending agents with the initials F B I wanting to know how they hacked into those 'National Technological Means' orbiting the Earth whose imagery is classified far beyond TOP SECRET RIDICULOUS... 

Really!   That would make a visit by the Black Van look like a kindergarten reunion.

[jb512]

Not sure if this has been posted yet, but we got this on our yahoo group today:

Termination of 121.5 MHz Beacons for Satellite Alerting is Coming Soon
Notice Number: NOTC0981


On 1 February 2009, the International Cospas-Sarsat [1] Organization (U.S. included) will terminate processing of distress signals emitted by 121.5 MHz Emergency Locator Transmitters (ELTs). This means that pilots flying aircraft equipped with 121.5 MHz ELTs after that date will have to depend on pilots of over flying aircraft and or ground stations monitoring 121.5 to hear and report distress alert signals, transmitted from a possible crash site.


Why is this happening?


Although lives have been saved by 121.5 MHz ELTs, the downside has been their propensity to generate false alerts (approximately 98 percent of all 121.5 MHz alerts are false), and their failure to provide rescue forces with timely and accurate crash location data. Both of which actually delay rescue efforts and have a direct effect on an individual's chance for survival. Rescue forces have to respond to all 121.5 MHz alerts to determine if they are real distress alerts or if they are being generated by an interferer, an inadvertent activation (by the owner) or equipment failure.


Is there an alternative?


Yes, the Cospas-Sarsat System (U.S. included) has been and will continue processing emergency signals transmitted by 406 MHz ELTs. These 5 Watt digital beacons transmit a much stronger signal, are more accurate, verifiable and traceable to the registered beacon owner (406 MHz ELTs must be registered by the owner in accordance with Federal Communications Commission (FCC) regulation). Registration allows the search and rescue authorities to contact the beacon owner, or his or her designated alternate by telephone to determine if a real emergency exists. Therefore, a simple telephone call often solves a 406 MHz alerts without launching costly and limited search and rescue resources, which would have to be done for a 121.5 MHz alert. For these reasons, the search and rescue community is encouraging aircraft owners to consider retrofit of 406 MHz ELTs or at a minimum, consider the purchase of a handheld 406 MHz Personal Locator Beacon (PLB) which can be carried in the cockpit while continuing to maintain a fixed 121.5 MHz ELT mounted in the aircraft's tail.


Remember, after February 1, 2009, the world-wide Cospas-Sarsat satellite system will no longer process 121.5 MHz alert signals. Pilots involved in aircraft accidents in remote areas will have to depend on pilots of over flying aircraft and or ground stations to hear emergency ELT distress signals. For further information concerning the termination of 121.5 MHz data processing visit www.sarsat.noaa.gov



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[1] The Cospas-Sarsat Organization provides a satellite based world-wide monitoring system that detects and locates distress signals transmitted by Emergency Locator Transmitters (ELTs), Emergency Position Indicating Radio Beacons (EPIRBs) and Personal Locator Beacons (PLBs). The system includes space and ground segments which process the signals received from the beacon source and forwards the distress alert data to the appropriate RescueCoordinationCenter for action.


Address SARSAT inquiries to:

NOAA SARSAT
NSOF. E/SP3
4231 SuitlandRoad
Suitland, MD 20746
Phone: 301.817.4515
Toll free: 888.212.7283
Fax: 301.817.4565


You have received this notice from FAASafety.gov because you have selected "General Information" in your preferences on your FAASafety.gov account. Click here to log in and edit your preferences on FAASafety.gov.

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Looks like it may be applicable to change, or it may help us for a while if we're the only ones listening to the current frequency.

[Major Carrales]

Not sure if this has been posted yet, but we got this on our yahoo group today:

Termination of 121.5 MHz Beacons for Satellite Alerting is Coming Soon
Notice Number: NOTC0981

All that will mean is that when we are deployed, it will likely be real.

[jb512]

Either that or we will be kept in business for a bit longer looking for the 121.5 signals until they are all phased out.

[Dragoon]

In the long run

The 406 beacon means fewer false alarms.  And that's good. Because it wastes money, and truthfully, hunting an ELT in a golf shirt isn't exactly the world's greated Ground Team training event.

But during the transition, after the satellites stop monitering 121.5, but the beacons are still out there...


AFRCC will have to decide what to do if an airliner picks up a 121.5 signal.  They won't have the option of "waiting for another SARSAT pass" to confirm.  So we might get called up MORE often.

But whether it's more often or less often, the searches themselves should get interesting. Because we won't get SARSAT hits on the 121.5 beacons.  All we'll know is that "an airplane at 15000 feet over St Louis heard an ELT".  So the search area is going to be much bigger.  SARSAT hits may not be great, but we're gonna miss them when we're gone.

I think more ELT missions will involve air work to narrow down the area.  So more flying at 3 a.m.  Maybe a bit more than right now.