What will CAP look like in 2020?

[Major Carrales]

So, what will the roll of CAP be like in that not so future date? 2020!

Can we adapt to survive?  Will the adaptations radically change our nature.  Will it be a move to or away from the USAF?  Will CORP CAP change...disappear?

We cannot see future events...lest you are clairvoyant, but we can logically extend several trends.

Let's keep uniforms out of this thread.

Have at it?

[MIKE]

Will CAP even exist come 2020, in any form?  It sure seems like there is a definite decline.

[Major Carrales]

Will CAP even exist come 2020, in any form?  It sure seems like there is a definite decline.

That is a legitimate remark...if we fail to adapt to the times we must entertain the notion that it could end.

I say this in the shadow of the recent search for Steve Fossett.  If he is rescued/found it will be a red letter day for CAP.  We must face the fact that a "FIND" will put CAP on the map.  I mean no disrespect by that, but that is what got me thinking of this.

Also, a bit on Local CAP relationships and relevance to those communities that was discussed by the Brigadier General at the PAO academy.

If we cannot adapt, if we cannot remain revelant...could there be a day when we are all relegated to wearing old CAP uniforms, long since retired, to civil ceremonies and on special days?

[mikeylikey]

I hate to say it but I agree with Mike, it may not exist.  I would give it until 2015.  We are loosing so many members these days.  We have scandals that outweigh previous scandals, and CORPORATE seems to want to absolute power, and move us away from the military.  

I forsee resources and volunteers being absorbed into state defense forces as flying assets, or being sold off to fund a new AF plane.  With Goggle Earth, we can see where a plane went down and see if there is anyone alive around that plane.  (reference MSNBC about Branson getting Goggle to begin searching for that missing "rocket jock" in Nevada)

[Major Carrales]

I hate to say it but I agree with Mike, it may not exist.  I would give it until 2015.  We are loosing so many members these days.  We have scandals that outweigh previous scandals, and CORPORATE seems to want to absolute power, and move us away from the military.  

I forsee resources and volunteers being absorbed into state defense forces as flying assets, or being sold off to fund a new AF plane.  With Goggle Earth, we can see where a plane went down and see if there is anyone alive around that plane.  (reference MSNBC about Branson getting Goggle to begin searching for that missing "rocket jock" in Nevada)

Your attitude is alarming, my friend.  I, on the other hand, plan to work to make CAP an institution that endures.  To keep relevance in the 21st Century...you seem ready to give up.  Tell me I'm misreading you.

[mikeylikey]

I guess I did not understand your posturing to begin with.  You wanted to know if we can adapt to survive.  What must we survive against in the first place?  Current political scandal?  Resources and funding?  Declining membership numbers?  Poor vision and drive at the national level?  Failure in communications from the top to the general membership?  A system of leadership that is based solely on who you know and not what you do?  If these are the things we must survive, then I still give it until 2015.  HOWEVER, I am not one to jump ship, I will do what the organization asks of me and let it fail on its own.  I am not going to rock the boat and cause more internal heartache.

[RiverAux]

As long as the AF believes it is worth their while to spend $20-30 million a year on CAP, the organization will continue to exist.

[Major Carrales]

Are there people of vision in CAP capable of giving us a CAP Golden Age of 5 to 10 years?  I want to think yes.  I want to think I can be a part of helping them make that happen in my sphere of influence.

I suggest that those of us that post here really evaluate our positions and, instead of constant uniform debate or rumor milling, see if we can be a true force to initiate that GOLD AGE.

If we fail at that...simply put, we are finished!

[MIKE]

As long as the AF believes it is worth their while to spend $20-30 million a year on CAP, the organization will continue to exist.

They gonna spend some of that money to recruit and train and retain people to do those missions for them?

[Major Carrales]

As long as the AF believes it is worth their while to spend $20-30 million a year on CAP, the organization will continue to exist.

They gonna spend some of that money to recruit and train and retain people to do those missions for them?

How much would a new domestic SAR Command for the USAF be?  Or, a new Branch in the US Army to make these rescues?

[flyerthom]

I'll throw out a conjecture as we see some of this already.

In order for CAP to grow and continue, there will be a big push for meeting National Standards for any mission capability. I believe Congress will make NIMS become mandatory for us or any other SAR unit to get funding.

EMS went through something like this in the 1980's requiring units to have personnel meet certain standards for licensure. Units now must meet CAAS  (Commission On Accreditation Of Ambulance Services) standards and most air EMS programs must meet CAMTS (Commission on Accreditation of Medical Transport Services) standards to be able to bill Federal Insurance programs. SAR (because it is cost heavy) will come under the same scrutiny.

What this will do is force CAP to do is to tighten it's volunteer model and move to a Whole member model. People won't be able to just come to fly cadets, just be a cadet programs person or just be an Aerospace member. In order to keep an ES role for CAP, most all members will have to meet at least NIMS basic. Much like after the 1980's to do EMS a person needed at least 120 hours of the DOT module based EMT-B, CAP people will need much more than just GES. If we aren't willing to do this we will be supplanted by other groups who meet the Federal Standard. This will be driven by budget constraints in Homeland security. The groups that get the cash are the ones who'll strive to meet standards.

Once again I'm basing this on what happened to EMS in the 1980's. There were a lot of little volunteer ambulance companies in rural area that were run by folks who never got in a unit, raised money by bingo and would never pay for training or equipment. John the volunteer had minimal training and they did the scoop and swoop leading to poor patient outcomes. The were no mandatory crews so calls would be missed or response delayed. The Federal Government stepped in with standards and the States adopted them and many of the companies resisted the standards and now no longer exist.

After 9/11 and the recent hurricanes, SAR is being looked at like that. NIMS right now is being pushed to the forefront. I can see it becoming more of a Standard. CAP personnel will need to step up or they won't be allowed to participate. And the people who want to be there will push to leadership positions. There won't be space or resources for the "Bingo people." I see mandatory call and duty times coming like a police, EMS and Fire model as a future part of NIMS. Even volunteer EMS has this requirement. You must give so many hours a month or you're not a member. This is to keep skills sharp and be available NOW if needed.


remember, this is conjecture -not opinion of what should happen. I don't think some of the following is good. I think dollars may push things this way. If anything I want to be wrong.

CAP will need more focus on ES  ICS, aircrew and ground team training. It may lead to less focus on aerospace and cadet programs (except as it related to cadets and ES).
It will also cut into things like staff colleges, SLS. CLC. It will place more focus on Search and Rescue academies, SAR base courses etc.  Schools and encampments that don't meet NIMS standards will be cut. Programs that want to stay will need to justify themselves will do things that provide experiences to meet NIMS. Look for time established National Cadet programs to open to Seniors (this is good in my opinion) and evolve.

Overall conjecture:
Look for the Senior program to toughen, but look to the military aspect to lessen as ES qualifications gain prominence. In the face of Bin Laden and the next Katrina,  The government and the Air Force want people who can perform in the field more than on the parade ground.

[mikeylikey]

I am confident that by 2020 we will have overseas Cadet Squadrons in Saudi Iraqia

[flyerthom]

I hate to say it but I agree with Mike, it may not exist.  I would give it until 2015.  We are loosing so many members these days.  We have scandals that outweigh previous scandals, and CORPORATE seems to want to absolute power, and move us away from the military.  

I forsee resources and volunteers being absorbed into state defense forces as flying assets, or being sold off to fund a new AF plane.  With Goggle Earth, we can see where a plane went down and see if there is anyone alive around that plane.  (reference MSNBC about Branson getting Goggle to begin searching for that missing "rocket jock" in Nevada)

It's press babbling, much of that area is not mapped by Google earth or the phots are old.

[RiverAux]

As long as the AF believes it is worth their while to spend $20-30 million a year on CAP, the organization will continue to exist.

They gonna spend some of that money to recruit and train and retain people to do those missions for them?

We are in no danger of running out of people.  

[mikeylikey]

As long as the AF believes it is worth their while to spend $20-30 million a year on CAP, the organization will continue to exist.

They gonna spend some of that money to recruit and train and retain people to do those missions for them?

We are in no danger of running out of people.  

Just people that want to join CAP. 

[BlackKnight]

As long as the AF believes it is worth their while to spend $20-30 million a year on CAP, the organization will continue to exist.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but it's Congress that decides "how much the AF thinks CAP is worth to them". Whenever the AF tries to cut CAP funding Congress restores it.

[BlackKnight]

I am confident that CAP will have a lot less hair by 2020. 
Hence sunglasses will be authorized for wear in formation.

[MIKE]

We are in no danger of running out of people.

Beg to differ.

Just people that want to join CAP. 

Unfortunately.

[davedove]

I think CAP will certainly be able to survive that long and longer.  However, we need strong National leadership to establish a long range view of how CAP will adapt and grow in the years ahead.  And the leadership must communicate that vision to the members.

It is important to maintain our traditions, but we must not be afraid of changing to meet new conditions.  And we cannot be afraid to eliminate a function if it is no longer needed.

The world is a lot different that it was when CAP was founded.  It's even a lot different than it was 20 or even 10 years ago.  We can't keep doing things the way they were done then.  CAP needs to look at its missions and determine how best to meet them in the world of today and tomorrow.

[mikeylikey]

The world is a lot different that it was when CAP was founded.  It's even a lot different than it was 20 or even 10 years ago.  We can't keep doing things the way they were done then.  CAP needs to look at its missions and determine how best to meet them in the world of today and tomorrow.

Umm.....CAP founded during a world war........we are in World War Three now.  Not much difference, just different bad guys and newer technology.

[Walkman]

Umm.....CAP founded during a world war........we are in World War Three now.  Not much difference, just different bad guys and newer technology.

Good Point, Mikey.

Well, as a new SM still in the "honeymoon phase", I hoping that we'll last much longer than 2020.

While I agree that leadership at NHQ will make a difference, I think local leadership will have a bigger influence. When I asked here about how the TP fiasco would affect me as a new guy, most people replied that it wouldn't really affect me at all. IMO, if we continue to show valuable local community service and turn loose high-caliber cadets, we'll be around.

On that note, I think CP is going to be one of our strongest assets. From what I've seen so far, our cadets stand out among today's youth. There's been a lot of chatter in some circles about the "moral decline" of America's youth (that's a topic for another thread). Parent's that are concerned about that will see our cadets and want their kids to be a part of it.  My 2¢, anyway...

[Dragoon]

We will still exist, as changes to federal law don't happen very often.  Barring some major screw up, no one's gonna waste much time killing a paltry $30M a year program.  Especially since the members of CAP vote.

Now, what will we be doing in 2020?

We'll most certainly have a cadet program - no reason not to.

We'll certainly have planes - don't expect a revolution in military affairs to have drones replace aircraft completely in 15 years.

We may do less SAR - if the 406 ELTs come on line in large numbers the false alarm rate will go way down, and we'll get better data on crashes - less need to search very far.

I doubt we'll do a lot more HLS - primarily because we can't do all that much security work from 100 feet of the ground with our eyeballs.  And Archer aside, I don't expect many high tech  gadgets to be fielded in large numbers to CAP in 13 years.

The big wild card is DR work - Katrina has fundamentally changed the perception of the Federal Government's role in disasters.  It's possible that CAP may end up with a bigger role because of this.

But overall, I think we'll probably look a lot like we do now.  We've gone through ups and downs in membership over the last two decades, and this one is no different.  We've gone through leadership crisis before.  We've changed uniforms around willy-nilly before. SSDD.

[Trouble]

We will still exist, as changes to federal law don't happen very often.  Barring some major screw up, no one's gonna waste much time killing a paltry $30M a year program.  Especially since the members of CAP vote.

Now, what will we be doing in 2020?

We'll most certainly have a cadet program - no reason not to.

We'll certainly have planes - don't expect a revolution in military affairs to have drones replace aircraft completely in 15 years.

We may do less SAR - if the 406 ELTs come on line in large numbers the false alarm rate will go way down, and we'll get better data on crashes - less need to search very far.

I doubt we'll do a lot more HLS - primarily because we can't do all that much security work from 100 feet of the ground with our eyeballs.  And Archer aside, I don't expect many high tech  gadgets to be fielded in large numbers to CAP in 13 years.

The big wild card is DR work - Katrina has fundamentally changed the perception of the Federal Government's role in disasters.  It's possible that CAP may end up with a bigger role because of this.

But overall, I think we'll probably look a lot like we do now.  We've gone through ups and downs in membership over the last two decades, and this one is no different.  We've gone through leadership crisis before.  We've changed uniforms around willy-nilly before. SSDD.

Well said.   

I have to agree, CAP has endured and most likely will continue to do so.  In 2020 we will probably be right were we where in 2001.  Settled into the routine of same old same old, wondering if/when CAP would/had become obsolete. Then something unexpected will take place and we will do what we did in 2001, step forward, role up our sleeves and get to work, doing what we have done since 1941.  Provide Volunteer Airpower to serve/defend our communities, State, and Nation.

"US Civil Air Patrol, America's Volunteer Air-Force in Readiness"

[docspur]

blah blah blah deleted 

With Goggle Earth, we can see where a plane went down and see if there is anyone alive around that plane.  (reference MSNBC about Branson getting Goggle to begin searching for that missing "rocket jock" in Nevada)

Only if you plan on searching for something/someone about 4-5 years later.  Google Earth maps are not "up-to-date-this-instant" satillite maps.  Case in point: I Google Earth'd my address, and it shows 2 trees in my front yard that we had cut down 5 years ago.

[mikeylikey]

blah blah blah deleted 

With Goggle Earth, we can see where a plane went down and see if there is anyone alive around that plane.  (reference MSNBC about Branson getting Goggle to begin searching for that missing "rocket jock" in Nevada)

Only if you plan on searching for something/someone about 4-5 years later.  Google Earth maps are not "up-to-date-this-instant" satellite maps.  Case in point: I Google Earth'd my address, and it shows 2 trees in my front yard that we had cut down 5 years ago.

Ummm......I think Google can get real time images.  HELL they are Google, they own everything and everyone!

[AlphaSigOU]

blah blah blah deleted 

With Goggle Earth, we can see where a plane went down and see if there is anyone alive around that plane.  (reference MSNBC about Branson getting Goggle to begin searching for that missing "rocket jock" in Nevada)

Only if you plan on searching for something/someone about 4-5 years later.  Google Earth maps are not "up-to-date-this-instant" satellite maps.  Case in point: I Google Earth'd my address, and it shows 2 trees in my front yard that we had cut down 5 years ago.

Ummm......I think Google can get real time images.  HELL they are Google, they own everything and everyone!

Heh... if they did some supersecret agency with the initials N R O would be sending agents with the initials F B I wanting to know how they hacked into those 'National Technological Means' orbiting the Earth whose imagery is classified far beyond TOP SECRET RIDICULOUS... 

[Trouble]

blah blah blah deleted

With Goggle Earth, we can see where a plane went down and see if there is anyone alive around that plane.  (reference MSNBC about Branson getting Goggle to begin searching for that missing "rocket jock" in Nevada)

Only if you plan on searching for something/someone about 4-5 years later.  Google Earth maps are not "up-to-date-this-instant" satellite maps.  Case in point: I Google Earth'd my address, and it shows 2 trees in my front yard that we had cut down 5 years ago.

Ummm......I think Google can get real time images.  HELL they are Google, they own everything and everyone!

Heh... if they did some supersecret agency with the initials N R O would be sending agents with the initials F B I wanting to know how they hacked into those 'National Technological Means' orbiting the Earth whose imagery is classified far beyond TOP SECRET RIDICULOUS... 

Really!   That would make a visit by the Black Van look like a kindergarten reunion.

[jb512]

Not sure if this has been posted yet, but we got this on our yahoo group today:

Termination of 121.5 MHz Beacons for Satellite Alerting is Coming Soon
Notice Number: NOTC0981


On 1 February 2009, the International Cospas-Sarsat [1] Organization (U.S. included) will terminate processing of distress signals emitted by 121.5 MHz Emergency Locator Transmitters (ELTs). This means that pilots flying aircraft equipped with 121.5 MHz ELTs after that date will have to depend on pilots of over flying aircraft and or ground stations monitoring 121.5 to hear and report distress alert signals, transmitted from a possible crash site.


Why is this happening?


Although lives have been saved by 121.5 MHz ELTs, the downside has been their propensity to generate false alerts (approximately 98 percent of all 121.5 MHz alerts are false), and their failure to provide rescue forces with timely and accurate crash location data. Both of which actually delay rescue efforts and have a direct effect on an individual's chance for survival. Rescue forces have to respond to all 121.5 MHz alerts to determine if they are real distress alerts or if they are being generated by an interferer, an inadvertent activation (by the owner) or equipment failure.


Is there an alternative?


Yes, the Cospas-Sarsat System (U.S. included) has been and will continue processing emergency signals transmitted by 406 MHz ELTs. These 5 Watt digital beacons transmit a much stronger signal, are more accurate, verifiable and traceable to the registered beacon owner (406 MHz ELTs must be registered by the owner in accordance with Federal Communications Commission (FCC) regulation). Registration allows the search and rescue authorities to contact the beacon owner, or his or her designated alternate by telephone to determine if a real emergency exists. Therefore, a simple telephone call often solves a 406 MHz alerts without launching costly and limited search and rescue resources, which would have to be done for a 121.5 MHz alert. For these reasons, the search and rescue community is encouraging aircraft owners to consider retrofit of 406 MHz ELTs or at a minimum, consider the purchase of a handheld 406 MHz Personal Locator Beacon (PLB) which can be carried in the cockpit while continuing to maintain a fixed 121.5 MHz ELT mounted in the aircraft's tail.


Remember, after February 1, 2009, the world-wide Cospas-Sarsat satellite system will no longer process 121.5 MHz alert signals. Pilots involved in aircraft accidents in remote areas will have to depend on pilots of over flying aircraft and or ground stations to hear emergency ELT distress signals. For further information concerning the termination of 121.5 MHz data processing visit www.sarsat.noaa.gov



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[1] The Cospas-Sarsat Organization provides a satellite based world-wide monitoring system that detects and locates distress signals transmitted by Emergency Locator Transmitters (ELTs), Emergency Position Indicating Radio Beacons (EPIRBs) and Personal Locator Beacons (PLBs). The system includes space and ground segments which process the signals received from the beacon source and forwards the distress alert data to the appropriate RescueCoordinationCenter for action.


Address SARSAT inquiries to:

NOAA SARSAT
NSOF. E/SP3
4231 SuitlandRoad
Suitland, MD 20746
Phone: 301.817.4515
Toll free: 888.212.7283
Fax: 301.817.4565


You have received this notice from FAASafety.gov because you have selected "General Information" in your preferences on your FAASafety.gov account. Click here to log in and edit your preferences on FAASafety.gov.

-------------

Looks like it may be applicable to change, or it may help us for a while if we're the only ones listening to the current frequency.

[Major Carrales]

Not sure if this has been posted yet, but we got this on our yahoo group today:

Termination of 121.5 MHz Beacons for Satellite Alerting is Coming Soon
Notice Number: NOTC0981

All that will mean is that when we are deployed, it will likely be real.

[jb512]

Either that or we will be kept in business for a bit longer looking for the 121.5 signals until they are all phased out.

[Dragoon]

In the long run

The 406 beacon means fewer false alarms.  And that's good. Because it wastes money, and truthfully, hunting an ELT in a golf shirt isn't exactly the world's greated Ground Team training event.

But during the transition, after the satellites stop monitering 121.5, but the beacons are still out there...


AFRCC will have to decide what to do if an airliner picks up a 121.5 signal.  They won't have the option of "waiting for another SARSAT pass" to confirm.  So we might get called up MORE often.

But whether it's more often or less often, the searches themselves should get interesting. Because we won't get SARSAT hits on the 121.5 beacons.  All we'll know is that "an airplane at 15000 feet over St Louis heard an ELT".  So the search area is going to be much bigger.  SARSAT hits may not be great, but we're gonna miss them when we're gone.

I think more ELT missions will involve air work to narrow down the area.  So more flying at 3 a.m.  Maybe a bit more than right now.