What will CAP look like in 2020?

[Major Carrales]

So, what will the roll of CAP be like in that not so future date? 2020!

Can we adapt to survive?  Will the adaptations radically change our nature.  Will it be a move to or away from the USAF?  Will CORP CAP change...disappear?

We cannot see future events...lest you are clairvoyant, but we can logically extend several trends.

Let's keep uniforms out of this thread.

Have at it?

[MIKE]

Will CAP even exist come 2020, in any form?  It sure seems like there is a definite decline.

[Major Carrales]

Will CAP even exist come 2020, in any form?  It sure seems like there is a definite decline.

That is a legitimate remark...if we fail to adapt to the times we must entertain the notion that it could end.

I say this in the shadow of the recent search for Steve Fossett.  If he is rescued/found it will be a red letter day for CAP.  We must face the fact that a "FIND" will put CAP on the map.  I mean no disrespect by that, but that is what got me thinking of this.

Also, a bit on Local CAP relationships and relevance to those communities that was discussed by the Brigadier General at the PAO academy.

If we cannot adapt, if we cannot remain revelant...could there be a day when we are all relegated to wearing old CAP uniforms, long since retired, to civil ceremonies and on special days?

[mikeylikey]

I hate to say it but I agree with Mike, it may not exist.  I would give it until 2015.  We are loosing so many members these days.  We have scandals that outweigh previous scandals, and CORPORATE seems to want to absolute power, and move us away from the military.  

I forsee resources and volunteers being absorbed into state defense forces as flying assets, or being sold off to fund a new AF plane.  With Goggle Earth, we can see where a plane went down and see if there is anyone alive around that plane.  (reference MSNBC about Branson getting Goggle to begin searching for that missing "rocket jock" in Nevada)

[Major Carrales]

I hate to say it but I agree with Mike, it may not exist.  I would give it until 2015.  We are loosing so many members these days.  We have scandals that outweigh previous scandals, and CORPORATE seems to want to absolute power, and move us away from the military.  

I forsee resources and volunteers being absorbed into state defense forces as flying assets, or being sold off to fund a new AF plane.  With Goggle Earth, we can see where a plane went down and see if there is anyone alive around that plane.  (reference MSNBC about Branson getting Goggle to begin searching for that missing "rocket jock" in Nevada)

Your attitude is alarming, my friend.  I, on the other hand, plan to work to make CAP an institution that endures.  To keep relevance in the 21st Century...you seem ready to give up.  Tell me I'm misreading you.

[mikeylikey]

I guess I did not understand your posturing to begin with.  You wanted to know if we can adapt to survive.  What must we survive against in the first place?  Current political scandal?  Resources and funding?  Declining membership numbers?  Poor vision and drive at the national level?  Failure in communications from the top to the general membership?  A system of leadership that is based solely on who you know and not what you do?  If these are the things we must survive, then I still give it until 2015.  HOWEVER, I am not one to jump ship, I will do what the organization asks of me and let it fail on its own.  I am not going to rock the boat and cause more internal heartache.

[RiverAux]

As long as the AF believes it is worth their while to spend $20-30 million a year on CAP, the organization will continue to exist.

[Major Carrales]

Are there people of vision in CAP capable of giving us a CAP Golden Age of 5 to 10 years?  I want to think yes.  I want to think I can be a part of helping them make that happen in my sphere of influence.

I suggest that those of us that post here really evaluate our positions and, instead of constant uniform debate or rumor milling, see if we can be a true force to initiate that GOLD AGE.

If we fail at that...simply put, we are finished!

[MIKE]

As long as the AF believes it is worth their while to spend $20-30 million a year on CAP, the organization will continue to exist.

They gonna spend some of that money to recruit and train and retain people to do those missions for them?

[Major Carrales]

As long as the AF believes it is worth their while to spend $20-30 million a year on CAP, the organization will continue to exist.

They gonna spend some of that money to recruit and train and retain people to do those missions for them?

How much would a new domestic SAR Command for the USAF be?  Or, a new Branch in the US Army to make these rescues?

[flyerthom]

I'll throw out a conjecture as we see some of this already.

In order for CAP to grow and continue, there will be a big push for meeting National Standards for any mission capability. I believe Congress will make NIMS become mandatory for us or any other SAR unit to get funding.

EMS went through something like this in the 1980's requiring units to have personnel meet certain standards for licensure. Units now must meet CAAS  (Commission On Accreditation Of Ambulance Services) standards and most air EMS programs must meet CAMTS (Commission on Accreditation of Medical Transport Services) standards to be able to bill Federal Insurance programs. SAR (because it is cost heavy) will come under the same scrutiny.

What this will do is force CAP to do is to tighten it's volunteer model and move to a Whole member model. People won't be able to just come to fly cadets, just be a cadet programs person or just be an Aerospace member. In order to keep an ES role for CAP, most all members will have to meet at least NIMS basic. Much like after the 1980's to do EMS a person needed at least 120 hours of the DOT module based EMT-B, CAP people will need much more than just GES. If we aren't willing to do this we will be supplanted by other groups who meet the Federal Standard. This will be driven by budget constraints in Homeland security. The groups that get the cash are the ones who'll strive to meet standards.

Once again I'm basing this on what happened to EMS in the 1980's. There were a lot of little volunteer ambulance companies in rural area that were run by folks who never got in a unit, raised money by bingo and would never pay for training or equipment. John the volunteer had minimal training and they did the scoop and swoop leading to poor patient outcomes. The were no mandatory crews so calls would be missed or response delayed. The Federal Government stepped in with standards and the States adopted them and many of the companies resisted the standards and now no longer exist.

After 9/11 and the recent hurricanes, SAR is being looked at like that. NIMS right now is being pushed to the forefront. I can see it becoming more of a Standard. CAP personnel will need to step up or they won't be allowed to participate. And the people who want to be there will push to leadership positions. There won't be space or resources for the "Bingo people." I see mandatory call and duty times coming like a police, EMS and Fire model as a future part of NIMS. Even volunteer EMS has this requirement. You must give so many hours a month or you're not a member. This is to keep skills sharp and be available NOW if needed.


remember, this is conjecture -not opinion of what should happen. I don't think some of the following is good. I think dollars may push things this way. If anything I want to be wrong.

CAP will need more focus on ES  ICS, aircrew and ground team training. It may lead to less focus on aerospace and cadet programs (except as it related to cadets and ES).
It will also cut into things like staff colleges, SLS. CLC. It will place more focus on Search and Rescue academies, SAR base courses etc.  Schools and encampments that don't meet NIMS standards will be cut. Programs that want to stay will need to justify themselves will do things that provide experiences to meet NIMS. Look for time established National Cadet programs to open to Seniors (this is good in my opinion) and evolve.

Overall conjecture:
Look for the Senior program to toughen, but look to the military aspect to lessen as ES qualifications gain prominence. In the face of Bin Laden and the next Katrina,  The government and the Air Force want people who can perform in the field more than on the parade ground.

[mikeylikey]

I am confident that by 2020 we will have overseas Cadet Squadrons in Saudi Iraqia

[flyerthom]

I hate to say it but I agree with Mike, it may not exist.  I would give it until 2015.  We are loosing so many members these days.  We have scandals that outweigh previous scandals, and CORPORATE seems to want to absolute power, and move us away from the military.  

I forsee resources and volunteers being absorbed into state defense forces as flying assets, or being sold off to fund a new AF plane.  With Goggle Earth, we can see where a plane went down and see if there is anyone alive around that plane.  (reference MSNBC about Branson getting Goggle to begin searching for that missing "rocket jock" in Nevada)

It's press babbling, much of that area is not mapped by Google earth or the phots are old.

[RiverAux]

As long as the AF believes it is worth their while to spend $20-30 million a year on CAP, the organization will continue to exist.

They gonna spend some of that money to recruit and train and retain people to do those missions for them?

We are in no danger of running out of people.  

[mikeylikey]

As long as the AF believes it is worth their while to spend $20-30 million a year on CAP, the organization will continue to exist.

They gonna spend some of that money to recruit and train and retain people to do those missions for them?

We are in no danger of running out of people.  

Just people that want to join CAP. 

[BlackKnight]

As long as the AF believes it is worth their while to spend $20-30 million a year on CAP, the organization will continue to exist.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but it's Congress that decides "how much the AF thinks CAP is worth to them". Whenever the AF tries to cut CAP funding Congress restores it.

[BlackKnight]

I am confident that CAP will have a lot less hair by 2020. 
Hence sunglasses will be authorized for wear in formation.

[MIKE]

We are in no danger of running out of people.

Beg to differ.

Just people that want to join CAP. 

Unfortunately.

[davedove]

I think CAP will certainly be able to survive that long and longer.  However, we need strong National leadership to establish a long range view of how CAP will adapt and grow in the years ahead.  And the leadership must communicate that vision to the members.

It is important to maintain our traditions, but we must not be afraid of changing to meet new conditions.  And we cannot be afraid to eliminate a function if it is no longer needed.

The world is a lot different that it was when CAP was founded.  It's even a lot different than it was 20 or even 10 years ago.  We can't keep doing things the way they were done then.  CAP needs to look at its missions and determine how best to meet them in the world of today and tomorrow.

[mikeylikey]

The world is a lot different that it was when CAP was founded.  It's even a lot different than it was 20 or even 10 years ago.  We can't keep doing things the way they were done then.  CAP needs to look at its missions and determine how best to meet them in the world of today and tomorrow.

Umm.....CAP founded during a world war........we are in World War Three now.  Not much difference, just different bad guys and newer technology.